NFL Playoffs .............................2023/2024

Bucs hang'in 1st half.

Baker incredible with last drive of 1st half

I would like to know why Tampa’s defense never, ever makes an adjustment 

Yes, that's crazy but the way Boles plays it

Oh my, Bucs were right there for the cover, would of been the insane had you bought 1/2 pt to 7.

When Like ns went up by 14 their play on the field was only worth a 4 to 5 pt win 

Once Bucs scored to cut the lead to 8,;play on the field was Bucs winning by 3to 4 pts.

Not sure how it ended up, that last INT by Baker very likely brought Lions play on the field to reasonable close to the score 

Wow, the hard-luck Bills strike again !!!!...... 13 seconds anyone ??.... Missed FG VS Giants only to lose by 1 point in the SB ....... 4 straight losses in SB.

This is Brady VS Manning early in their career's, of course Manning got his revenge later maybe Josh will to someday.

KC turned out to be the right side, Mahomes beat Allen pretty bad in QBBR by 45.5 pts and ave per pass att by 4.5 yds, wow, that is a beat-down really.

According to PR I KC should of won by 14.43 pts not 3. Had they not fumbled out the end zone, a little fluky,  would of likely been a closer score to both teams play on the field.

When Baker scored their last TD Bucs should have been winning the game according to PR I, but with his final pass being an INT that gave Goff the better QBPR and Lions should of won by 5.41 pts, pretty close to the actual score. 

Early plays ........................

Ravens -3 (-120) over KC --- 1.2 units

9ers -7 (+100) over Lions --- 1 unit

Using the same method we've used successfully past 2 or 3 years........ PR I, PR II, Playoff only PR I ...... neither of these 3 PR's finishes with a 0-2 ATS record in this round very often . I'll get into these records later.

Through a process of elimination I can determine which team has to win to prevent any PR from going 0-2 ATS. As it stands right now with the lines where they are all 3 PR's have both home teams covering the line. Not sure this has ever happened before.

The only way this can change is 9ers line goes to 7.5, then very small lean on Lions based on playoff only PR I. Which mean Ravens have to cover if that happens.

If it doesn't go there then we can still play this method, but we do it differently.

One home team is almost certainly going to cover.

CLOSE WINS ................................. 3-2 ATS

WC --- 2-0 ATS

Divisional --- 1-2ATS

9ers +4 over Lions

Ravens +2 over KC

play is on the 9ers with a 3 diff or more

TOTAL YARDS MARGIN IMPROVEMENT 2CD HALF OF SEASON ...............................................

9ers +36.12 yds .................by 63.32 yds

Lions (-27.19)

Ravens +3.13 .......................by 26.19

KC (-23.06)

SB winners almost always improve 2cd half ..... play on 9ers

Points per Plays Margin ........................................

1. Ravens .196

2. 9ers .192

6th. KC .062

10th. Lions .025 

32 of 40 teams made the SB .09 OR BETTER. 6 teams under .09 were surprise teams from WC round. We have none of those teams this year.  1 of the 2 teams made SB under .09 was Brady in 2018 season at .08, not sure the other team. With Mahomes being the Brady of his generation can he do it at .062 ?

there have been 8 seasons where neither top 2 team made the SB, 6 OF those 8 times one of those top 2 teams made the SB the next year.

Top 2 teams last season .....................9ers .153 and Bills .147, neither top 2 team made the SB so this is another one of those times a top 2 team from last season should make the SB.

Everything points to the 9ers advancing to the SB and most likely covering as well. Lions at .025 in 10th place is very unlikely to make the SB. Not efficient with their plays or yards.

Yards per point margin ...................... Lions 14th in the playoffs (-.01), how many teams made the playoffs, 14 was it ?  9ers +3.5, 3rd best.

Granted Lions are a great story but the story is the only thing great about them, the story is so much bigger then reality ............................

Here's Mahomes 3 SB teams...........................

2019 .167

2020 .109

2022 .116

all 3 well over .09

Mahomes 2018 --- .188

2021 --- .096, Burrow and the Bengals .099

In both Mahomes SB wins his team was the better team.

In Mahomes SB loss, KC .109,  Brady the efficiency master and his Bucs was .126

Mahomes wins when he is the more efficient QB and losses when he isn't.  Just like all other QB's, the real reason Mahomes wins more often in the playoffs appears to be he is always amoung the best MOST efficient QB's year-after-year so therefore he has more opportunities with a very efficient team just like Brady. 

You could make a case maybe they got their stuff together now, but both Bills and Dolphins had big injuries on defense and Dolphins were frauds could not beat better teams and can't win in cold weather. I heard Bills had a practice team player playing middle linebacker or some such thing. But regardless they did have alot of injuries and was a missed FG away from tying the game.

Ravens have a better defense even if both Dolphins and Bills were at full strength and they are healthy.

If Mahomes wins this game I promise myself to never go against this man again.

Good stuff TC.....I'm still liking the top seeds to advance to SB for first time since Eagles/Patriots SB  

A wealth of info 

I'm waiting to see Mahomes' magic on given sunday.

GL TC

yes they have a great shot to advance....................

Hopefully his magic will be limited...........................

POWER RATINGS I ...................................

1. 9ERS 16.47

2. 14.06

3. Lions 3.73

4. KC 2.63

MY LINES ...........................

9ers -15.74 over Lions

Ravens -14.43 over KC 

10-3 ATS with a 6 pt diff to closing line .......... play on 9ers, Ravens

8 times my lines went 2-0 ATS past 22 years

12 times 1-1 ATS

1 time 0-1-1 ATS

1 time 0-2 ATS

POWER RATING II .................................................

1. 9ers 14.53

2. Ravens 12.72

3. Lions 7.85

4. KC .05

MY LINES .......................................

9ers -9.68 over Lions

Ravens -15.67 over KC

All games ---18-10 SU & 17-10-1 ATS

6 pt diff to closing line --- 4-3 ATS ......................play is on the Ravens

2 - 5.99 diff to closing line ---7-2 ATS ......................play is on the 9ers if closing line is -7.5 or less

2 pts or better diff --- 11-5 ATS 

4 times my lines went 2-0 ATS

8 times 1-1 ATS

1 time 0-1-1 ATS

1 time 0-2 ATS

PLAYOFF ONLY POWER RATING I .....................................

1. Ravens 18.94

2. KC  12.35

3. 9ers 6.63

4. Lions 2.35

MY LINES .......................................

Ravens by 9.59 over KC

9ers -7.02 over Lions

all games --- 12-6 ATS

6 pt diff --- 7-2-1 ATS

lowest rated team (lions) ---2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS

highest rated team (9ers) --- 7-2 SU, 7-1-1 ATS

3 times --- 2-0 ATS

6 times --- 1-1 ATS

0 times  0-1-1 ATS

0 times  0-2 ATS

As we can see it is rare for any one of these 3 PR's to produce a losing ATS record. This is the best time to play these PR's. In order for no PR to produce a losing ATS record "IF" the 9ers closing line is -7.5 or higher that puts a lean on the Lions in playoff only PR, then Ravens need to win ATS.

It looks like that could very well happen. If it does I will add 1 unit to my Ravens play. If the Ravens did happen to not cover I'll add 2 additional units to 9ers as I highly doubt they both fail to cover. I'll trust the info.

We used this successfully past 2 or 3 years, last year winning on Mahomes and KC over Burrow and the Bengals with Mahomes hobbling on a bad ankle and most people on the Bengals since they've beaten KC in the recent past.

OPPS ...........................

Highest rated team in playoff only PR I........ is Ravens (not 9ers) .....................7-2 SU... 7-1-1 ATS

I wouldn't bet against the Ravens.

Ravens beat Brady twice by double digits. 2009 they won 33-14......2012 they won 28-13, they had the game won in 2011as well. Ravens are the type of team can beat these great QB's.

KC played the fraud Dolphins who couldn't beat good teams and can't win in the cold and who had big injuries. And they beat the Bills who were kicking a FG to tie the game  with their defense banged up.  Ravens are better then the Bills with a way better defense.

Won't be surprise Ravens win by double digits again over another great QB.

Thank you @theClaw for all the analysis!  

@theclaw

 What are you betting today? 

Adding additional play .........

Ravens -4 (-115) over KC --- 1.15 units

Pending plays .................

Ravens -3 (-120) over KC --- 1.2 units

9ers -7 (-120) a very Lions --- 1.2 units

Pending Futures ........

9ers to win SB +450 --- 1 unit

9ers to win NFC +215 --- 1 unit

9ers line looks to be going to 7.5 which means Ravens have to cover for no PR to go 0-2 ATS.

I saw this online, teams in the playoffs in any round off a SU win but not cover playing at home the next game 8-3 ATS.

This was on the Lions last week and got the ATS win over Bucs.

Also saw this,  Lions are the big public side this week, pro's on 9ers. Pro's VS Joe's game .