Posted:
#126
Ravens down 10 at half......
Lean ....
Ravens -4 2cd half
That gives u Ravens +6 on the game
NFL Playoffs .............................2023/2024
Posted:
#128
Quote Originally Posted by nealb4zod:
In these playoffs, you have suffered from that which you always preach--regression to the mean. You're a career 56% gambler in the NFL, but this season you were well above that. You should have seen the post-season regression coming, and faded yourself.
In these playoffs, you have suffered from that which you always preach--regression to the mean. You're a career 56% gambler in the NFL, but this season you were well above that. You should have seen the post-season regression coming, and faded yourself.
Posted:
#130
Lamar can't get it done passing the ball once again.
Ravens players seem to get frustrated even though the game was easily winnable.
All those penalties, foolish. Just before half with back to back personal foul 15 yd penalties that pretty much handed KC a FG that was big as it made it a 2 score game instead of 1 score.
Roughing Mahomes penalties that are so unnecessary, players either get frustrated or lose their composure.
I don't think the Ravens have championship mentality. Alot of that starts with the QB.
Mahomes and Brady bring championship mentality in truck loads.
Posted:
#136
@theclaw
I don't think the Ravens have championship mentality. Alot of that starts with the QB.
Mahomes and Brady bring championship mentality in truck loads.
Yes....mental toughness is something we vastly under rate when capping these championship matchups.
That said....we need to look into this more with our upcoming SB matchup.
Head Coach....Defensive Coordinators.....QBs......Kickers...... At first glance I don't think anyone is going to give the mental toughness edge to the Niners in any of these critical matchups. Chiefs going to win this game.
Claw, would be interested to see your "points left" method on these two teams....thanks
Time is a flat circle....
Posted:
#138
Championship games --- 0-2, lost 5.35 units
shocker to me both these home team failed to cover. When 9ers got up 10 I thought for sure they'd hold that lead but Lions score on 4th frigg'in down.
I got a little aggressive which I don't do very often thinking both teams were the right side, certainly should get one.
Posted:
#140
PLAYOFF ONLY POWER RATING I ...........................
KC 11.84
9ers 4.15
my line ........................ KC -7.69 over 9ers
17-8-1 ATS with all leans
10-4-1 ATS with a 6 pt diff to closing line
But .........................
2-3 ATS past 5 years........1-1 ATS with a 6 pt diff
5-5 ATS past 10 years ........2-3 ATS with a 6 pt diff
Posted:
#142
POWER RATING I ................................ 2023 season
9ers 16.47
KC 2.63
MY LINE .............................. 9ers -13.84 over KC
3-2 ATS past 5 years ........ 0-0 ATS 6 pt diff
6-4 ATS past 10 years ........ 2-2 ATS 6 pt diff.
It looks like both PR's have been at the best over the past 5 to 10 years and alot of that is a man named Brady and Mahomes and to a lesser degree Burrow you cannot build any PR to support what they bring to the table.
The time to go against these all-time great QB's is when they are bigger favorites up around -6, -7 or better.
I can't go against Mahomes but I want to believe my number 1 ranked 9ers do have a shot to win this game so I'll stick with my futures on the 9ers as my only play in the game.
FUTURES ...................................
9ers to win SB +450 --- 1 units
9ers to win NFC +215 --- 1 unit
Posted:
#143
EXPECTED WIN MARGIN ...................................
Here's something very interesting. I use the stat that has the highest correlation to margin of victory for the SB champ. Each team has so many pts to use, once they use up all their pts it won't be good. And teams can have alot of points left once they get to the SB, these teams have produced some big blowouts in the big game.
Last team to do this was Bucs 31-9 over KC.
This year both these teams have lots of points left.
KC 32.5 even though they didn't have all that great a year they still did well in this area.
9ers have like 60 pts left, they won 2 close games.
The information suggest we could see a big blowout win for one of these teams.
The info does not tell us who will win unless one of the teams has no points left and the other team has points left.
We don't have that this year, it might be worth a sprinkle on alternate lines laying some big numbers. As unlikely has it may seem but this method has done it many times with the winning team being pretty close to the points they have left. Not that 9ers will win by 50 or KC wins by 30 but there could be a 17 to 24 point big surprise margin at the end.
Posted:
#144
KC has not been good at points per plays, efficiency with their plays. Teams playing like them don't get to SB's very often.
But watching some breakdowns on youtube, guys I know are knowledgeable are saying KC fixed the big issue they had with the receiver drops and TO's.
It only stands to reason with all the receiver drops, fumbles and INT's when targeted the points per plays is going down. They were saying Mahomes QBPR to those receivers was terrible but now those same receivers don't see many plays.
Early in the season rookie receiver Rice was in on like 15% of plays then it went up to something like 60% and I think now even higher with the other bad receiver being not used much which kind of accounts for much of the turn-around for KC. They were saying Kelce and Rice are the 2 most trusted receivers.
KC's pts per plays past 3 playoffs games .148 after going around .06 in the regular season.
Posted:
#146
The public looks to be on KC on both the line and ML. And I see as does my friend who watches different shows then I do with many saying they know 9ers are the better team overall but they can't go against Mahomes.
To many people saying this same thing, seems to be a pretty good narrative being pushed around.
And it's for this reason I want to believe 9ers have a good shot to win this game.
Could they win big ? Well, if they win and I'm not saying they will but if they do this might be a much bigger win then many believe is possible VS Mahomes.
9ers have so many skilled players on offense maybe they might just explode in this game. I like the OVER myself. If either team wins big it likely goes over, I can't see the losing team score few points.
I will say a score around 35-17. Not sure who wins. Or 38-17.
Posted:
#148
I never start my own thread but something no one is talking about is special teams. Like you said, Mahomes vs Purdy. Mahomes record as an underdog. Special teams is such a big factor that goes unnoticed a lot of times. I remember Bill Parcells preached about hidden yardage and special teams. KC has a nice edge in special teams today.
Posted:
#150
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
EXPECTED WIN MARGIN ................................... Here's something very interesting. I use the stat that has the highest correlation to margin of victory for the SB champ. Each team has so many pts to use, once they use up all their pts it won't be good. And teams can have alot of points left once they get to the SB, these teams have produced some big blowouts in the big game. Last team to do this was Bucs 31-9 over KC. This year both these teams have lots of points left. KC 32.5 even though they didn't have all that great a year they still did well in this area. 9ers have like 60 pts left, they won 2 close games. The information suggest we could see a big blowout win for one of these teams. The info does not tell us who will win unless one of the teams has no points left and the other team has points left. We don't have that this year, it might be worth a sprinkle on alternate lines laying some big numbers. As unlikely has it may seem but this method has done it many times with the winning team being pretty close to the points they have left. Not that 9ers will win by 50 or KC wins by 30 but there could be a 17 to 24 point big surprise margin at the end.
EXPECTED WIN MARGIN ................................... Here's something very interesting. I use the stat that has the highest correlation to margin of victory for the SB champ. Each team has so many pts to use, once they use up all their pts it won't be good. And teams can have alot of points left once they get to the SB, these teams have produced some big blowouts in the big game. Last team to do this was Bucs 31-9 over KC. This year both these teams have lots of points left. KC 32.5 even though they didn't have all that great a year they still did well in this area. 9ers have like 60 pts left, they won 2 close games. The information suggest we could see a big blowout win for one of these teams. The info does not tell us who will win unless one of the teams has no points left and the other team has points left. We don't have that this year, it might be worth a sprinkle on alternate lines laying some big numbers. As unlikely has it may seem but this method has done it many times with the winning team being pretty close to the points they have left. Not that 9ers will win by 50 or KC wins by 30 but there could be a 17 to 24 point big surprise margin at the end.
Most of my queries favor KC, but SF has a massive (almost historic) net passing advantage despite the Mahomes worship. I've got SF -12.5/+377 for 0.25 units.
Good luck with your SF futures. Despite my bigger bet on KC +2 I am still rooting for SF.
There is more to life than money.
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