I'll have more playoff info later today.
Using PR I if we back the best team in the WC round (Dallas) it is something like 8-4 ATS, I'll have the exact record later but I will play that team every year.
It's be interesting to see how the lowest rated home favorite has done in WC round, may look into that later. That'd be KC.
I saw a stat that showed KC led the league in "lost EPA to wide receivers". As in, the expected EPA versus actual EPA on passing plays was the greatest due to wide receiver error out of any team in the league. As someone who has pretty much seen every Chiefs snap this season this stat was not surprising. It took until week 16 of this year, after six season in the league, to see visible frustration and expressing of that emotion on Mahomes v. his wideouts. He simply just stopped targeting guys like MVS, Toney and Skyy Moore cause he doesn't trust them. Will KC see some positive regression in this aspect on Saturday? Probably not. Miami is LIVE dog.
@theclaw
tried finding PR II, didn't see it anywhere recently. any updates on that by chance?
Last year's nuggets included the following:
"Interesting facts on PR II & PR I ......................... 2009 -2021
8 TEAMS rated 12 or more IN PR II 6 made the SB. Only 2009 Vikings and the 2019 Ravens did not. But 2009 Vikes 13.83 did lose to no. 1 team in PR I Saints 14.04
Three times no. 1 teams in each PR played each other, 2015 Panthers 15.29 NO. 1 in PR II beat no. 1 in PR I Seahawks 12.86. And the 2014 Seahawks 13.29 beat the Packers 11.21 under 12, in each case the higher rated no.1 team won.
If we throw those out then PR II is 6 of 7 teams making SB rated 12 or better.
PR I is 5 of 7 no. teams rated 12 or better making the SB.
No. 1 in both PR I & II LIKE the 9ers 4-1 Making the SB but each team rated 12 or better in one PR or both which 9ers don't. 3 of 4 rated 12 or better in both.
Teams that didn't rate 12 or better in PR II ........................
2016 Boys 10.83 , lost opening game
2018 Texans 9.7, lost 1st game
2020 Saints 9.14 , lost
2021 Packers 9.95 lost
You can see all these teams very weak, All weakest teams rated under 11, so maybe teams over 11.5 could be good teams to back like the 9ers this year. I made the number 12 but that number is not etched in stone. When we look at PR I we see the same result, all weakest teams are under 11, except 2020 Packers 11.03, barely above and the 2014 Packers 11.21 was the best of the weakest rated teams BUT THEY lost to NO.1 rated Seahawks in PR II.
So just maybe the number could be around 11.5, I don't know but something worth considering since 2014 Packers led the Seahawks into I think the final minute when Wilson throws like a 40 yard TD pass so those Packers came very close as a 11.21 rated no. 1 team, maybe 11.5 is a good solid team to make the SB.NO. 1
No. 1 rated teams in PR II rated 12 or better have been spectacular ATS going 7-2 in opening playoff game with one of those losses being 2013 Seahawks losing by .5 pt when Saints scored on 4th down with 28 seconds left. Still remember that loss."
Excellent !!! I have all the results just not time to go through them and post, maybe next week.
Recently there have been no teams over 12 in either PR, last team was Ravens 2019 when the lost SU to Titans in first playoff game. But they were the hottest team by far coming into the Playoffs and in regression which does not always work in the playoffs but can work.
This season neither team over 12 is in regression. The number 1 team over 12 has a great record ATS in their first playoff game and rarely will finish with a losing ATS record in the 2 playoff games to win the conference. So in other words if they lose ATS the first game they win the 2cd ATS unless they lose SU the first week like the 2019 Ravens.
POWER RATINGS II ...............................................
1. 9ERS 14.53
2. Ravens 12.72
3. Dolphins 8.07
4. Lion 7.85
Browns 6.59 ............Flacco's final 4 games ..... if we throw out his first game back which Browns played poorly losing 36-19 to Rams
5. Dallas 4.63
6. Bills 4.41
7. Eagles2.69
8. KC .05
Unfortunately these are the only teams I have. This method requires tracking each game every week, I do have some teams missing just a game or 2 or 3, depending who wins I may finish their remaining games for next week.
KC finishing low is not totally a big surprise as strong passing teams with dominant QB's don't always do well in PR II but this is likely the worst of the Mahomes era.
That is very interesting, but if he doesn't throw to these guys is there anyone better or will he throw to very few select guys ?
I suppose there could be regression like you say but if he doesn't throw to them they can't regress, at some point he'd have to trust them for them to regress. Maybe as a team they can regress but that would mean having other players to throw to. I don't know KC's roster.
@kcblitzkrieg
You are correct about their WRs. Mahomes has done an excellent job overcoming this to me. He had a great year considering this.
For example:
KC has the 2nd worst drop% at 7.8%
the 2nd lowest ADoT
the lowest ADoC
This shows he is not able to get them passes down the field because they are not getting separation and he has to throw to TEs and RBs and lowers the depth of the routes and completion.
Therefore, KC has a 12th place PE/Play of .115
19th EPA/Target of .08
Now consider this:
Drop%
1st Watson 18.9
3rd MVS 13.8
7th Toney 11.4
40th Moore 7.1
54 Rice 5.6
Obviously, no one else has 3 WRs in the top 10 in drop%!
PE/Route:
18th Rice .064
66th Watson .020
92nd Moore .000
101st MVS -.008
110th Toney -.036
Now look at Mahomes numbers and realize how good of a season he has had despite this.
CLOSE WINS .......................................................
Bills by 6 over Steelers
Bucs by 6 over Eagles
Dolphins by 1 over KC
Lions/Rams even
Browns/Texans even
Dallas/Packers even
we back the team with a 3 game difference or more ..........................since 2005 ..........60-33-1 ATS (64.4%)
has 15 winning years
2 years at .500 ................ in 2014 and 2017
1 losing year...................... in 2015 of 2-3 ATS
Past 5 years ....................18-10-1 ATS ...(63.8%).......pretty darn close to the 18 year average of 64.6%
I will buy off on the Bucs, not going to play against this method.
Thanks for the info, yea that is pretty brutal for Mahomes to put up with. But maybe his huge contract played a role, not much money for receiver's, maybe mangement says so let's see what he can do with less, hey he's Mahomes.
BONUS POINTS ...............................................
1. Ravens 15,99
2. 9ers 15.78
3. Boys 12.89
4. Bills 10.78
5, Dolphins 8.45
6. KC 8.12
7. Lions 5.86
8. Browns 4.61
9. Rams 2.71
10. Packers 2.39
11. Texans 1.92
12. Bucs .93
13. Eagles .13
14. Steelers (-2.43)
we have a play with a 4.5 difference to the closing line, this method does well in WC and divisional round, maybe the CF, I have the records each round I'll try to post tomorrow.
This method is not good for the number 1 team winning SB's though, PR I and II are better for winning and making the SB.
I developed this method because of Brady beating my PR's, originally I thought I'd add the pts to PR I that's why I called it bonus pts but found it does well enough on it's own and it did pulled me off fading Brady in the latter parts his career to my benefit.
BONUS POINTS ...............................
Boys -13,5 over Packers
KC -2.67 over Dolphins
Lions -6.15 over Rams
Bucs -3.8 over Eagles
Texans -.31 over Browns
Bills -16.21 over Steelers
Plays on Boys, Bucs and Bills.
Keep in mind though Steelers with Rudolph would have been much better as would Browns with Flacco. And Eagles in regression as a play on team and regression takes precedent over any other method, however regression cannot be counted on as consistently in the playoffs so I am passing on this game and will buy-off my Eagles play.
I will also buy-off my Browns play as no method has the Browns as a play. Will stick with only my play Dallas in WC round.
Do yo purposely avoid totals in playoffs?........................................................gl
Thanks for posting all of your work. BOL closing out this season.
if you paid -120 for -2.5 why wouldn't you pay -120 for +3.5 in such a closely PR contest between Philly/Tampa ?
Tampa appears to have been figured out offensively the last two weeks playing the Saints (13 points) and the Panthers (9 points) for the second time this season. One might say Bakers injury lead to the poor production but the Buccaneers unapologetically play into tendency. I understand the week 3 matchup between Philly/Tampa does not carry much weight today, but if the last two games for the Buccaneers are any indication, betting Tampa under 20.5 might be the best bet.
No, actually bonus pts includes total yards.
I still have the 2cd half total yards improvement to post but don't have time to go over it and post.
I don't think that was available, you'd have to pay alot more then -120 to get 3.5. And when I got all the info together to determine I didn't have a play on Browns +3 was not available to even consider buying to 3.5.
But yea that'd of been awesome to get 3.5.
CJ Stroud is the first rookie QB to lead the league in TD's to INT's ratio. Crazy, and Texans have the fewest TO's in the league lead by a rookie QB.
I hear pro's like Packers, one guy was saying how Love was playing way better 2cd half of season. Packers QBPR did improve by a very good margin 14.3 pts. However the defense got worse by a good amount 8 pts. So that makes a 6.3 team improvement.
How does that compare with Cowboys ?
Boys QBPR improved by 4.5 and defense also improved by .7, that makes a team improvement of 5.2, Packers improvement is not much more then Boys, especially considering Packers were dreadful and had no-where to go but up. (-4.6) after 8 games.
Boys were performing on a far higher level (18.6).
So both teams improved, Packers happen to improve by a bit more only but overall Boys are the way better team.
Meanwhile the Bills who need to win in the 2cd half to make the playoffs and did but winning 4 games by 1 score close wins to 1 blowout win down the stretch run.
Bills QBPR decline by (-9.3), the defense did improve by 3.5, so a (-5.8) decline 2cd half. They finished the season +10.3, very few teams win the SB under 10 but even under 15 does not happen all that much.
The average SB winner was around +27 with most teams being over +20, just to put the Bills in proper perspective.
And 1 or 2 seeds don't win the SB rated 3.17 in PR I, for these top seeds to win SB they need to be very strong. Plus Allen is a TO machine, he is always looking to make the big play, better to play smart. I saw him one game as he was being tackled to the ground he was holding the ball like a loaf of bread in one hand looking to lateral to a teammate as he was falling to the ground and he wonders why he is a TO machine ?
Don't see the Bills winning the SB.
Wow, Stroud and the Texans were very impressive. According to PR I Texans out-played the Browns and should of won by 33.78 pts almost right on the actual margin of 31.
Texans are getting that look of a surprise team from the WC round, they do meet the common denominators but let's not get to far ahead of ourselves, it's only 1 game but the next game will tell us alot more.
The last team to do it was Ravens back in the 2012 season. Hey, Texans just beat that Ravens team's QB. Now how crazy would that be.
Oh, I read that quick the first time and thought you meant total yds, my bad. Don't do much with totals in playoffs, I do totals with regression in regular season, when teams regress they generally will go under TT points and the game under.
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