NFL Playoffs .............................2023/2024

TOTAL YARDS IMPROVEMENT 2CD HALF OF THE YEAR ........................................

I looked this up last season, WC round it did go 2-4 ATS but 2 losses were almost dead-even. But teams better by less then a half yd. To close to really count, we need a minimum difference.

so WC round was 2-2 ATS and divisional round was 2-2ATS. But this info is only 1 piece of the puzzle as I pointed out above. Learning how to use the info is important.

Thank ya sir. 

PR I ................................... last season

WC round --- 5-1 ATS with all leans................. this season 2-4 ATS

1-0 ATS with a 6 pt diff to closing line.................this season 1-1 ATS

last year we had one false favorite, Chargers -2.5 over Jags, PR I had Jags -5.84 over Chargers and my line was correct with Jags winning 31-30

this year we had 2 false favorites, Browns -2 over Texans, PR I had Texans -2.27 over Browns with Flacco adjusted

and Eagles -2.5 over Bucs, PR I had Bucs -5.99 over Eagles , in both games my lines were correct and both dogs won SU.

If we look at last season Jags -5.84 and this season Bucs -5.99, wow those are 2 dogs  on the vegas line that are decent sized favorites on my lines and both won SU. My lines has a pretty good SU win rate VS vegas line when I'M on the dog as my fav.

No false favs last year or this year in the divisional round, but we do get them at times and it's pretty good result. False fav in the SB has done very well ATS and SU ABOUT 50%

 We did have Steelers -.52 over Bills with Rudolph adjusted and Dolphins -.3 over KC but we need a minimum amount, those are much to small of favorites. I have the amount written down somewhere that correlates over history, I think it is 2 pt favorite or more best going off my memory.

I always use adjusted stats as official line when QB plays in a small amount of games. What I will do in the future is adjust even more based on the number of games. Rudolph played in only 3 games which is way to few, Flacco played in 5 games which is still way to few. I'd think around 12 to 13 or 14 games needs no adjustment but less then that requires a adjustment but 3 games certainly deserves a much bigger adjustment then I normally would give.

Last week I was so busy with a project had to finish by a certain time, just finished yesterday at 3 pm. This week i will have more time. Unfortunately I did miss out on some wins in WC round because of it, didn't have the time to look into things the way I needed to.

GL today 

................................

fascinating info as always claw

i hope it plays out because those are my plays!

best of luck and thanks for another great season!

 .......................................thank you and let's hope it plays out perfectly.

@theclaw

 fingers crossed!

have a blessed weekend!

PR I .........................last season

1. 9ers 11.51 with Purdy only stats

9ers 10.91 Purdy adjusted

2. Eagles 10.22

PR II ......................last season

1. 9ers 11.64 in Purdy games only

2. Eagles   11.07

9ers 10.63 in all games

PR I ....................this season 

1. 9ers 16.47

2. Ravens 14.06

PR II ........................this season 

1. 9ers 14.53

2. Ravens 12.72

Look at the huge difference from last years no. 1 and 2 ranked teams and this seasons no. 1 and 2 ranked team. 

Both these PR's have a strong history with the no. 1 ranked team being over a 12 rating, last year we didn't have it this year the no. 1 ranked team is way over a 12 rating. 

We have only had 1 team since 2018 with a rating over 12 in either PR and that was 2019 Ravens. Who were the hottest team coming into the playoffs and in regression mode, although regression doesn't always work in the playoffs ity can work and it did to the Ravens.

The recent trend of teams off the bye has not been good VS the spread but what I am seeing on you tube with guys pretty knowledgeable were saying during the season is the league wants defenses to catch up with the offenses so they are allowing more holding by defensive players on receivers.  

If this is true it might explain why no team has been over 12 for many years and why this year we are seeing much stronger teams in both PR's where BALANCE is more important now.

This is exactly what it was back in the 80's and 90's when the stronger no. 1 seeds had very good balance and  steam-rolled teams off their byes in the divisional round.

Will things return-back to those 80's and 90's years ? Very possible I suspect. We are about to find out.

@theclaw

 Thanks, go Ravens!   BetMGM has public spread 59% on Texans.   

1 game in the books, here come the 9ers ..............

Divisional round --- 1-1, lost 2.5 units

Purdy looked bad, but Packers defense did look very good just like the Cowboys game receivers couldn't get open. But then on that final drive Purdy regained his magic and the Receivers got open. Love throw a terrible pass on their final drive, a crossed his body a crossed the field, terrible. That pass reminded me of Farve with the 2009 Vikings in the NFC Title game VS Saints, similar spot on a final drive to take the lead and Farve got the same result, INT.

Love did not need that at that point in the game, there was plenty of time to get in FG range, horrendous decision. I suspect he was trying to play superman and be the hero. I think or at least hope he will learn from this result, Farve never seemed to. Farve was already experienced and should of known better.

9ers should of won by 6.63 pts according to PR I.

Ravens should of won by 18.94 pts.

Both games ended pretty close to how the play on the field said they should. 

Today I like Bucs +6.5 and KC +2.5 but I'd wait and try to get +3 it might get there or buy it up. I see +3 at -130. But looks like line moving and could be a better price.

Not sure I'll take any action but both games are plays. 

Lions got lucky w that no call at the end vs the Rams. I'm thinking there is a good chance they win comfortably today. The crowd will be crazy loud and the Lions are the better team - I think.

@theclaw

 Gr8 writeups as always 

Damn im loving lions but but 6 is a key number. Bills ml

GL on your plays @theclaw 

@theclaw

Do the Bucs fall into a partial or 3/4 Bator Rule?  (Scoring 30+ and allowing less than 10 in two consecutive games)

It's not complete but I believe you've given consideration to a partial Bator Rule in the past.

Last 2 games:

TB 32  PHI 9

TB   9  CAR 0

@Erik48

 The thing about any angle like the Bator rule ("Twin Peaks") is that if it doesn't fit the rule, don't play it. It's either in the angle's data set, or it isn't. 

Playoffs may be different, so not sure. All the info points to Bucs