NFL Playoffs .............................2023/2024

Boys -7 (-115) over Packers --- 1.15 units

Good luck.

Good luck Claw.  

good luck on Dallas 

@sportschat......

@D-Town........

@DogbiteWilliams.........

@ebaysu.........

Browns -2.5 (-120) over Texans --- 1.2 units

Eagles -2.5 (-120) over Bucs --- 1.2 units

Eagles off a big loss requalify as a BF play on team. Bucs not very good. Either Eagles or pass.

Browns with Flacco are playing on a high  level, although home dogs in the playoffs do well, I am against both home dogs.

But want to get down on the number, I'll look into these games more and can buy off if need as both lines look like they are going up

@theclaw

GL

@theclaw

 Good luck brother! 

CLAW 

 this week theclaw.

I think I agree with you on Dallas

@Supat125......................

 @insatiable...................

 @Fuse...........................

 @Chauster....................

 @JimmyGape................

What’s your feeling on the Rams? It should be a great game but I have the Rams winning SU. 

POWER RATINGS I .............................................................

Pass heavy PR with both offense and defense carrying the same weight. 

1. 9ERS 16.47

2. Ravens 14.06

Steelers 12.65 ................using Rudolph's 3 games 

3. Boys 9.65

Browns 7.23 .......................using Flacco's 5 games

4. Steelers 6.69 .....................using adjusted Rudolph stats

5. Dolphins 5.93

6. Browns 5.12 ....................using Flacco adjusted stats

7.Texans 4.39

8. Lions 3.73

9. Bills 3.17

10. KC 2.63 ............................worst in Mahomes era

11. Rams 2.49

12. Packers 1.29

13.Bucs1.06

14. Eagles (-1.93)

MY LINES ..................................................

Texans -.16 over Browns .......using Flacco 5games

Texans -2.27 over Browns ....using Flacco adjusted stats 

Dolphins -.3 over KC

Steelers  -6.48 over Bills ..........using Rudolph's 3games

Steelers -.52 over Bills ..............using Rudolph's adjusted stats

Boys -11.36 over Packers

Lions -4.24 over Rams

Bucs -5.99 over Eagles

we'll use the adjusted stats for Flacco and Rudolph.

Rudolph is playing on a ridiculous high level. His QBPR and ave per pass are on a historical level. But is 3 games enough ? If Rudolph proves to be, not a historical great QB but just a very good QB then Steelers could be the surprise of this playoffs. 

Flacco QBPR is not impressive but best on the Browns over Watson but not by that much, like 6 pts, but his ave per pass is much better but nothing approaching the level of Rudolph.

I thought the Bills would have a good shot to win AFC but now I don't think so. Bills had alot of close 1 score losses and not many close 1 score wins so they had a great ratio but needing the last 5 wins they sure did win all 5 but 4 were 1 score close wins with 1 blowout win. Now they have 6 close 1 score wins (to many) and only 5 close losses. 

Plus Bills have way to many TO's, 28, 23rd in the league. When it comes to TO's it is more important to not turn the ball over then it is to create TO's on defense to win SB. Bills 3rd on defense. Think Brady and Mahomes. Not a SB look for Bills.

Then Bills Pt Margin of 8.2 does not wash with a PR I, pass heavy rating of only 3.17, pts come-out of the passing game, Bills 3.17 rating is 5.03 pts below their MoV, not a good indicator. Anything with a 4 or more difference should be strong consideration to fade.

Now on top of that Bills are to obvious to make the SB, many are saying it, yea sometimes the obvious does come true but in this case to much info going against that obvious choice. If all or most all the info was on the obvious that'd be different.

Close wins will have a play on the Bills but only because Steelers are 9-2 in close wins/close losses, 9 wow way to many but was before Rudolph as well. Rudolph did have 2 close wins to 1 blowout win. All 3 teams had winning records, alot of blowouts come VS losing teams.

@theclaw

 Thanks TC   

 Most surprising number here is Steeler's with Rudolph for sure.  No one is expecting them to win, most lopsided matchup of the week.  At least Miami has some backers taking the 3.5 and I don't think anyone would be too surprised if KC were to play poorly (as they've done since week 8) and lose SU.  

How do the Niners and Ravens numbers matchup historically with past SB winners ?? 

I would of really like Dolphins over KC but now with all the injuries and the Dolphins PR I rating came way down from what it was not to many weeks ago. Then you have the brutal cold weather with a warm weather team will pass now, but a Dolphins SU win wouldn't surprise me all that much, KC is not very good.

On a potential SF-BAL Super Bowl, Jeff Sagarin's NFL ratings page has these interesting stats:

SF is 2-3 SU vs his top ten teams while BAL is 6-1 SU.

MIA is 0-11 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when the temperature is under 40 degrees Fahrenheit.

With Reid as coach, KC is 22-10 SU and 16-16 ATS at home when the temperature is under 40 degrees Fahrenheit.

I would have been unable to come up with that information without the Sports Database and SDQL knowledge.

KC has only one blowout win which makes them quite unlikely to win the Super Bowl.  MIA has 5 blowout wins which would make them a live dog vs KC except for the weather AND the fact that Tagovailoa is a playoffs virgin (NFL QB playoff virgins are only 17-35-2 vs QBs with playoff experience).

More data:

With Reid as coach, KC is 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS at home when the temperature is under 20 degrees Fahrenheit.

Appreciate your write ups claw … as a Kansas City person… I hope chiefs lose… they have had a great ride last 5 years… but the extra wear and tear is showing… go home… fix these few problems you have… come win super bowl next year…  Pacheco will run his butt off.. and mahomes and Kelce will play well…. Their defense is better for the first times in mahomes era…. Not dominant… but better… and it’s a different season for them when the offense is not scoring 29 points per game… so I hope they lose and go rest… but the math says Miami won’t win this game… so I hope they lose the week after… no major injuries… and they go home….    They will be tough next year…. That’s how these mahomes types are… good luck to all…. Have appreciated your write ups all season.    

Good luck Claw. I really hope my Packers show something good in their game, though I don't expect anything.

@DogbiteWilliams.........................

 @garbagetime.............................

 @Mskeets..................................

Interesting for sure dog, but I wonder if that is predictable info ?

FO did research and found how you play VS teams with losing records was the best indicator. This works in the NBA also.

Crazy how Miami can't play even under 40 which ain't bad at all. I hear Tua may have never played in cold weather.