WC Round --- 2-3, lost 1.55 units
How bout those Cowboys !!!
Wow, shocking result, I really thought this Dallas team was different. Especially their offense at home was explosive, receivers couldn't get open. Doubt this team will ever be different. Interesting they have no regression indicators going into next year. They should be very good next year, at least in the regular season.
Close wins does it again --- 2-0 ATS with a 3 game diff.
Bonus Pts with 4.5 diff --- 2-1 ATS
PR I with 6 pt diff --- 1-1 ATS
Bucs were a play in all 3 methods, I did miss noticing this. And Bucs a close wins play on team this week over Lions.
Just so busy right now, with my back against the wall on some projects.
PR I ..............................................
9ers -18.18 over Packers
Ravens -13.21 over Texans
Bills -3.54 over KC
Lions -5.67 over Bucs
Play is on the 9ers with a 6 pt diff to closing line.
In this round home favorites less then 6 pts are fades ATS. Play is on Bucs
& KC. about 50% these teams win SU.
Close Wins ...........................................
Ravens by 4 over Texans
9ers by 3 over Packers
Bucs by 3 over Lions
Bills by 1 over KC
Play is on Ravens, 9ers & Bucs with a 3 game diff
9ers is a play on all 3 methods, Ravens 2 methods, Bucs 2 methods, KC 1 method
And 9ers also the play as the no. 1 ranked team in PR II and being over a rating of 12. We haven't had a number 1 ranked team over 12 in some time now.
SB WINNERS almost always peak in total yards margin the 2cd half of the year ...........................................
I didn't get every team last time I posted this, now we have a new no. 1 team improved the most and a new no. 2 team.
Packers improved by 57.69 yards and Bucs improved by 38.6 yards.
Back when 16 games were played I took first 8 games and 2cd 8 games unless a team didn't play starters last game. Now I take first 8 games and last 9 games, if a team doesn't play starters that makes it 8 and 8 games. Packers did not rest starters so we can make a case to count the first 9 games and last 8 games .
Then Packers would drop to 42.44 but still the largest improvement.
In WC round the largest mismatch was easily Bucs (+38.6) over Eagles (-69)
2cd largest mismatch was Packers over Cowboys
In divisional round largest mismatch is once again those Bucs over the Lions
2cd largest mismatch is Bills over KC
We have Ravens over the Texans and Packers over the 9ers.
In WC round backing the team with the bigger improvement went 5-1 ATS, only loser was Steelers.
Can the method produce back-to-back very good records ? I have my doubts about that.
Remember, I don't have any history on this method, just pointing out the teams and results last week.
Nice work!!
What I am hearing is biggest public play is on the Texans this week, interesting the public was against the Texans last week but not alot.
2cd public side is Packers but not alot.
Stroud not the same on the road, Ravens alot to prove especially Lamar, don't see this team not bringing a very big game here and with the very strong Ravens defense VS a rookie QB although he might be very good he's not the same on the road and I think he learns a very hard lesson this weekend.
Ravens -9 (-120) over Texans --- 1.2 units
PR I ......last season
we had 2 games in divisional round where the favorite was less then a 6 pt fav. These are automatic fades.
Bills -4.15 over Bengals, Bills were -4 to -4.5, Bengals roll 27-10.
KC -5.89 over Jags, KC -8 to -8.5, KC wins 27-20, and the Jags cover.
At least 1 dog in this spot won SU and both covered the spread.
What's even more interesting is Bengals were much better then the Bills in 2cd half total yards improvement, Bills were one of the worst teams at (-38.25) and went 0-2 ATS in the playoffs.
Where-as KC was the 2cd best team at +21.65 and much better then the Jags, and KC won SU even though they did not cover they at least won SU and of course won the SB.
If we compare that to this year, we have 2 favorites under 6 pt favorites, Lions and Bills, these teams are automatic fades.
The game most similar to last years Bills/Bengals where the favorite Bills were very bad in 2cd half improvement is.................... Lions/Bucs, not only are the Lions a fade but they are very bad in 2cd half improvement (-27.19) just like the Bills of last season, while the Bucs the 2cd best team at +38.6. Huge mismatch.
The game most similar to last years KC/Jags game is.........................Bills/KC, while the Bills are a fade but the Bills are much better then KC in 2cd half improvement, Bills +8.38 with KC one of the worst teams at (-23.06). Big mismatch there of over 25 yards.
So will the results be the same ? Will the Bucs win SU over the Lions ? And Will the Bills win SU but KC winning ATS ?
Just a thought, the one big difference is last year with a much bigger line in KC/Jags game last year there was plenty of room for KC to win but not cover. With a smaller line I think less likely but throwing this out there, maybe we on to something here for the future
But the one thing the info strongly suggest is if you are a Lions fan you might be very disappointed this weekend as everything under the sun points to the BUCs.
The one thing I can say for the Lions is, it used to be, I haven't track it for some years but a team wins but doesn't cover is a good play to cover the next week.
Established in 1995,
......
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