I have a chance to review your posts. Porky does have the right idea in this situation. If a team does well in the first half, the system rewards that team in the second half (or assumes that team will come out with the same intensity in the first half). It may be the other team just has a bad day.
In college, this is definitely the play. If a huge dog of 30 or more leads or is really close at the half, there would be more incentive for that team to play harder in the second half to make the game competitive. Hence, you would reward the dog with PLUS the huge spread for the 2H.
Also, if a huge favorite has a huge lead at the half, the line must be close to pick 'em because at this point, the spread is close (if not almost reached) by halftime, the dog team appears to give up at this point, more than likely allowing the favorite to complete the cover.
However, if the favorite has already covered the game spread by halftime, the play should still be on the favorite at PK, for the same reason.
There is alot of emotion that goes into a college game and a lot can be taken out by halftime.
In the pros, these guys play for money and glory. The pros I would expect to be a little different, which is why we are testing the theory here. With all the parity between teams in the NFL, any team can beat any other team on any day of the week. With that said, a lot more thought process has to go into capping 2H games inthe NFL.
Take the Rams, they were leading at the half, why would they not try to play better to get that first win vd. the Skins? Also, with the parity, a lot of the lines will hit the middle. I am not sure we will get the same success rate as with a college game, but isn't that what capping is all about? Trying to tweak something?
However, to tweak a system would not mean to alter it. This system is a contrarian play for the most part. So you would temd to want to vote against the public and against logic. So it must remain that way. Any tweaks to this system would have to be tighteners, otherwise the system is no longer a system.
For example, in the NFL, if the pre-game line for a team is -14, and that team is tied or trailing at the half, would this present a better play on the dog in the 2H (causing the middle to miss), or would it present less of a chance if the favorite was only favored by -7 or -3 before the game?
There is validity to what you are saying. Yes, in the NFL, there will be mosre likely to come close ith the numbers.
But if you say, just take the opposite in the NFL to hit the middle, then it is not a system anymore. It becomes... well... a "hybrid"
I have been burned too many times by my logic of taking teams hoping the middle hits, so this is actually something worth considering. With the NBA coming up, I would like to see how this system does there. But that can be a little tricky, because there seem to be 4 different mini-games for every NBA game. It depends on who is in the game at that time.
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