IT'S NBA PLAYOFF TIME ..................2026

Thanks ..........

So sounds like even with using SOS he still has Knicks slightly better.

Thanks............

I have draftkings app, I can walk across the border to use it.

Son of a gun I never check the app.

In all of my posts I failed to mention that Ken Massey had NY's DEF ranked #1.  SA's DEF did play well enough to keep NY Under their team total of 106.5 or 107.5, but NY's DEF played a LOT better.

Duh.  At least I limited my losses.

That's  pretty impressive for Knicks Def to be no. 1...............

1-1, lost .6 units

Knicks keep rolling. 

I was thinking about this, what if the Knicks don't  regress, could it be they sweep this team ?

Hard to believe they could.

Wemby would take a big hit especially  if he does not play better in the series then get swept.

Towns and  Mitchell pretty much shut him down. He did get like 26 points but on terrible shooting.

12 rebs but 2 assist to 6 TO's. The most TO's of any player in game 1.

I did talk about his assist to TO's going down in playoffs before the OKC series and we saw it again game 1.

Wemby got pushed around once again pretty easily by Knicks bigs.

During the regular season Spurs had won A stretch of games only losing  to the Knicks, something like 16-1 stretch.

And once again Knicks manhandled Wemby in that game from what I heard on you tube. 

This makes game 2 very big for Spurs and Wemby.

Game 1 it was Towns with the best game score according to basketball reference, with quess who 2cd..... Anunoby.

Brunson was 4th on the team.

And Towns held Wemby in check but it was Brunson who played terrible, could not hit a shot who later starting making buckets that was a big part responsible for Knicks winning the game.

That will play big with voters for the MVP I'm  sure but so will Towns play.

I think they are pretty even at this point. 

My Lines. .............game 2

Nba finals version, giving 2 pts to team trailing

Spurs -7.94 over Knicks ............. full season

Spurs -10.34 ..........ave

Since 1992 in game 2 of finals with a 1 pt difference between my line and the closing line using the finals version . ........ 14-7 ATS

Now, my Playoff Only PR the Knicks being  13.07 better then the Spurs is the 3rd largest going  back to 2001 the 1st year i ran the numbers.

Knicks became the 4th team to be better by over 10 pts.

Of the previous 3 they won 4-1, 4-0, 4-1.

But those 3 all held home court.

Of the 3 previous  road teams in the series better by 3.25 or more they won by 4-2, 4-3, 4-2.

Those 3 teams were better by 6.32, 5.44 and 3.37.

Knicks margin is alot greater as a road team in the series.

It is also possible Knicks being so much better in the playoffs  makes my line not so accurate.

That is a big concern.

But here in game 2 I'll play regression on the Knicks , I will stay the course and believe in the method.

As well as how difficult it is to win both games 1 & 2 by the road team.

Play is on the Spurs.

Spurs -6 (-105) over Knicks --- 2.1 units

Spurs 1st half -3.5 --- 1.1 units

TC, I hope I do not once again curse you by posting a supportive query, but here I go:

PO = 1 and series game = 2 and p:WAD and p:FTP > 82

SU:  5-33 (-14.0,13.2%)

ATS:  9-29 (-7.9,23.7%)

In the playoffs in series game #2, teams off a Win as an Away Dog that made better than 82% of their free throws are just 5-33 (13.2%) SU and 9-29 (23.7%) ATS.

That -14.0 average margin is enticing, so I decided to take SA -11.5 points at +175 for a half unit.

Good luck everybody.

I think I'll hold off on NBA queries until the next season.

Knicks have broken the laws of regression and physics of the universe.

Yea it was a high probability situation but the Knicks being better than the Spurs in Playoff Only PR by over 10 pts is a high probability situation as well.................

If you have queries dog post them, I for one like to see them .........

Yep ..............

0-2, lost 3.2 units

Knicks are incredible. They are on a historic great run.

Towns shut down Wemby in the 1st half but Wemby did play much better 2cd half.

Wemby's PER drops below Towns throughout the post season.

And Towns has done it with a far lower usage.

Like a 21.1 usage to Wemby's 32 usage. I talked about this before the playoffs, Wemby does not have the all-around game yet. More TO's then assists once again.

Bigs have an advantage in PER because pts contribute the most and rebounds the 2cd most. Very good bigs get lots of pts and rebounds but it is all the other little things will determine a players PER relative to usage.

If we look at Wemby rebounding after 2 games , he gets around  13% while Towns is like 21% or somewhere around that.

13% is not very good for a big man especially if you want to call him the goat as Wemby was being called.

Someday maybe. But he has a long way to go yet.

My Lines ............NBA Finals version

Spurs -1.94 over Knicks.............. full season

Spurs -4.34 ..........ave

Like I did mention before game 2 with the Knicks being so much better in Playoff Only PR these regular season Lines are not accurate.

I'd have to look in to how to adjust my lines based on playoff only PR someday.

I think the play would be on the Spurs but I refuse to bet against the Knicks again.

For one, I did talk about teams having never won a playoff series with key players going on to make the Finals or win the finals does not happen very often if ever.

Spurs never made the playoffs prior to this season with their key players.

Being a young team prone to mistakes and then we combined this with how the Knicks are playing being the highest rated team since 2001 in my Playoff Only PR and being 10 pts or better then the Spurs it is reasonable to understand the first 2 games results.

I was well aware of this but with regression  calling on the Knicks I thought Spurs should get 1 game at home. Had Knicks regressed I would of been on the Knicks.

At this point I'll live with my future on Knicks to win the series and on Towns and Anunoby to win the MVP.

It appears I am looking pretty good with those plays.

Towns appears to be the clear favorite to win MVP at this point.

Brunson did make the key basket again but he shot terrible overall again,  while Towns has been super efficient and outplaying Wemby.

@theclaw

 Unfortunately alot of subjective bias in MVP voting. Brunson still favorite which he should not be at this point

The analysts on this morning's Get Up agreed that KAT is the MVP at this point.  However, the show also displayed the fact that, going back for several decades, Brunson's PO average of 9.3 points in the fourth quarter trails only Dirk Nowitski's performance in 2011.

I have some queries that favor NY in Game 3, but more queries that favor SA.  I see money has poured in on SA to bring down the line from NY -2.5 to NY -1.5, cutting some value from SA.  I am also leery about betting on SA because if the refs continue to allow Towns to rough up VW, it's hard to see a path for SA to take Game 3.

I just lost on the 86.8% query I posted in Comment #435, so it is hard to have any confidence in this less-convincing query.  I am mostly posting this for my fellow SDQL adepts to get them thinking about assists/TOs ratio queries for maybe the first time.

PO = 1 and AD and line < 4.7 and p:LHF and p:assists/p:TO < 1.43

SU:  25-14 (2.8,64.1%)

ATS:  27-12 (5.7,69.2%)

In the playoffs, Away Dogs of 1.0-4.5 points off a Loss as a Home Favorite win SU 64.1% and cover ATS 69.2% of the games if the ratio of the previous game's assists to turnovers is less than 1.43.

Unfortunately most of the advantages disappear when the rounds and series games are parameters:

PO = 1 and AD and line < 4.7 and p:LHF and p:assists/p:TO < 1.43 and (round = 4 or series game = 3)

SU:  11-9 (-0.8,55.0%)

ATS:  12-8 (1.9,60.0%)

I don't bet queries with a narrow average ATS margin of just 1.9 points, and if "total > 208.2" is an added parameter, both the SU and ATS fall to 2-3.  This is mostly food for thought rather than a call to action.

Good luck everybody.

Has there ever been more hype for a Finals game 3?  First finals game at MSG since forever, million dollar courtside seats, first President to ever attend, possibly the best playoff run ever, etc..  Maybe all this hype finally derails the Knicks.  If there ever was a good time to bet against the Knicks, I think tonight is the night.  But I'm too scared to do it.

Been my experience that when an epic query fails that the failed team often will come back to cover the next game.....we'll see how this one works out.

I9, I looked at the 9-29 query (now 10-29, dadgummit) and put your hunch to the test:

PO = 1 and series game = 3 and pp:WAD and pp:FTP > 82 and p:ATSW

ATS:  3-6-0 (-3.6,33.3%)  That is not enough for me to take action, but I would lean to SA.  If "p:ats margin > 4.2" is substituted for "p:ATSW," the ATS is only 3-4-0.

You were correct; SA had a nice cover and outright win.

So true.........

Voting for guys score points is big even if they shoot poorly, no consideration for lack of efficiency and other things.