Couple thoughts

Reds lineup just dropped, and it’s not exactly full strength they’re missing a few sticks. Still waiting on the Mets lineup, but at the current price, that could matter

Looking deeper at this Washington/Kansas City.

Total opened at 9 with juice to the over, and my book has already moved to 9.5 at -102. That obviously changes things a little

Spence could get hit early, and if he doesn’t go deep, Kansas City may have to cover a lot of innings with the bullpen. On the other side, Alvarez has not exactly been clean either, and Washington’s bullpen has been shaky. 

My book is hanging Washington around -130 which is definitely interesting. I’m not saying it’s a play, but on the surface it does look like one of those low hanging fruit spots.

We know how those usually like to play out.

James Wood (L) DH
Luis García Jr. (L) 1B
Curtis Mead (R) 3B
CJ Abrams (L) SS
Dylan Crews (R) RF
Daylen Lile (L) LF
Jacob Young (R) CF
Keibert Ruiz (S) C
Nasim Nuñez (S) 2B

NATS

Lane Thomas (R) CF
Bobby Witt Jr. (R) SS
Jac Caglianone (L) RF
Maikel Garcia (R) 3B
Starling Marte (R) DH
Salvador Perez (R) 1B
Nick Loftin (R) 2B
Carter Jensen (L) C
Isaac Collins (S) LF

KC

Monday games usually play out the weirdest.

Good Luck LV 

Absolutely love the Nats today! Everything lines up to make this my biggest play of the season so far...

MLB [964] WAS NATIONALS -130 BIG

Listen, I decided on Washington today. I know I’m not alone on it, and yes, it’s probably going to look a little square, but there are enough reasons for me to get there.

Washington has the better lineup, the better current form, and the more relable starter. Spence is the big question for Kansas City, and if he struggles or doesn’t give length, that Royals bullpen has to cover a lot of outs

I’m not blind to the fact that Kansas City has some bats and can make this uncomfortable.

They can create traffic if Alvarez is off. 

I trust Washington’s lineup and setup more in this spot….See what happens 

Neither bullpen is good, but Kansas City’s is the bigger concern. KC’s pen has been rough all season, especially with baserunners. They’re sitting around a 1.50 WHIP, which means they’re constantly putting traffic on base.

That matters tonight because Spence may not give them much length. If he’s out early, the Royals bullpen could be asked to cover a lot of innings.

Washington’s bullpen isn’t great either, but it’s been slightly better overall.

@LVTruck

Well respected pick/play LVT! You are absolutely correct, Mondays can have some weird outcomes! BOL tonight!

TIP

What I’m really hoping for here

Washington’s bats have been in fuego, and I need them to get to Spence early and often.

If they can chase him quick and force KC into that bullpen with a lead, we should have enough cushion where we’re not sitting there sweating this shit out in the 8th and 9th.

I really need a drink 

Good luck! Let's get them! 

@LVTruck

 #5 for me already 

@luckyhands

 Sounds wonderful...Got about 2 hours of work left, I'll get in done in 40 mins  

@LVTruck

 NATS!  <<<<<<<<< 

@LVTruck

I already bet the game, but I’m still handicapping it because I’m weird 

Back to the bullpen angel, Washington’s bullpen isn’t great, but they should be a little more rested after yesterday. They used an opener, then Mikolas came in and gave them seven shutout innings, so they didn’t have to burn through a bunch of arms.

That matters tonight because..if this turns into a late-game bullpen battle, Washington may at least have a little fresher group to work with