IT'S NBA PLAYOFF TIME ..................2026

@theclaw

 This is Game 6 buddy 

   I don't see public betting being a factor here. It really looks pretty even. With the Spurs last big home win,injuries, looks like J-Dub is "probably?" out , and desperation close out game, the line looks about right, maybe juiced a  half point. Some look at last game and say , Spurs to young,Thunder close them out. Others say, pretty even match up and NBA wants a game 7 on the weekend. Don't think there's enough there to influence the outcome from a bookmakers point of view. Just bet what you like, maybe not too much and wait for a live bet you like. If Williams starts it will push the betting some towards OKC.

Yea I said game 6 with my lines but then said I pass on game 5 .........

The big showdown in game 7 .. ... ..

My Lines ......

OKC -6.7 over Spurs ..... full season

OKC -4.03 ..... average

Book adjust line down to 3.5 from 5.5 game 5. Same injuries so why adjustment ?

I think OKC is the better team but with their 2cd best player out and their best scorer off the bench out they have been getting away with these injuries up to this point but can they continue to do that ?

I have to pass once again. I don't see any edge myself.

Good luck if you can find and edge in this game 7.

I hope OKC wins as with their injuries I think really opens up the Knicks even better probability to win the finals 

I'll likely fade Knicks game 1 coming off another regression and with OKC off a game 7 a OKC game 1 win maybe off that game 7 with injuries might shift people's opinions on the Knicks having any chance to win series.

I see Knicks around +200 , not that great of odds. I was hoping for higher.  But I suppose considering the beatdown they are laying on teams maybe justifiable. 

A game 1 loss especially  a big loss and a game 2 loss with Knicks down 0-2 I'd definately back the Knicks to win the series if odds go up enough.

Any opinions out there on how the finals will go ?

NY does not show up as a query result because the Game 1 matchup has not yet been set, but the parameters fit to fade NY:

PO = 1 and round = 4 and series game = 1 and AD and p:margin > 12.5

ATS:  1-11 (-6.3,8.3%) avg line = +6.62

In the Finals in Game 1, Away Dogs off a win by at least 13 points are just 1-11 ATS.

Hopefully OKC just squeaks by to keep the Game 1 spread narrow.

SA won as an Away Dog in Game 7.  Maybe VW is trying to show that he should have been named MVP instead of SGA.

NY does look like a live dog in the series, but I like SA in Game 1.  I compute what I refer to as the Efficiency Factor (points/FGA).  Just looking at the last 12 games for NY's OFF it is freakishly high:

PO = 1 and tS(points, N = 12)/tS(FGA, N = 12) > 1.405 (50 games including NY's latest) That is pretty rare.

PO = 1 and tS(points, N = 12)/tS(FGA, N = 12) < 1.405 (4036 games) SA falls into that very common category.

NY is an Away Dog in Game 1 (tS = team Season):

PO = 1 and AD and tS(points, N = 12)/tS(FGA, N = 12) > 1.405

SU:  3-15 (-10.1,16.7%)

ATS:  6-12 (-4.5,33.3%)

Obviously 6-12 ATS with an avg margin of -4.5 points doesn't make NY look like a perfect lay, but that is what I took for one unit.  Good luck everybody.

That should have been "perfect fade," and I took SA -4.5/-118 for one unit.

Yes I think that is the right side myself dog .........

NBA FINALS ..........

My Lines....

SPURS - 5.94 over Knicks ......full season

Spurs -8.34 ...... ave of full season & after break.

Once again we see the book using Spurs full season ratings giving them no extra credit for their much improved play after the all-star break.

PR I .......

Spurs --- 7.81 ... full season

Spurs 10.21 .... ave

Knicks 5.87

Spurs by 1.94 ..... full season

Spurs by 4.34........ ave

PR I is 27-6 with a 1.25 difference  between teams since 1980 

PR II............

Spurs --- 55.01 .... full season

Spurs 56.41 ..... ave

Knicks 54.91

Spurs by .1 ..... full season

Spurs by 1.5 .......ave

PR II with a .75 difference has a 17-6 record winning the series since 1980

Playoff Only PR ..............

Knicks 84.24

Spurs 71.17

Knicks by 13.07

SOS in Playoffs .........

Knicks - 1.28

Spurs 5.01

Spurs by 3.73

Playoff Only PR is 13-4 at winning the series since 2001

9-0 when better by 3.25 or more

Another very good indicator is adding regular season PR I to playoff only.

Even if we give Spurs the ave ......

Knicks by 8.73

Then if we give Spurs SOS ........

Knicks by 5

This is a spot where we have seen upsets in the past. I think the value play is on the Knicks.

However with the Knicks coming in off a run of games that produced  regression I'll take shot at this play.

Spurs to win game 1/ Knicks to win series +450 --.5 units

Knicks to win the series +170 --- .5 units

Depending  what happens game 1 I could  make additional futures. 

I'll have thoughts on the MVP based on history for Knicks later.

Ken Massey's power ratings have NY at #1 (12.02) and SA at #2 (11.45).  NY is certainly good enough to grab 2 road wins this series if needed.

Good stuff dog .........

I agree if needed Knicks could win 2 road games but I'd be shocked if they won both game 1& 2.

Very difficult for road team in a series to win both of those.

Game 1 .........

Spurs -4.5 over Knicks --- 1.1 units

Spurs -2.5 1st half --- .55 units 

If you are looking for a MVP if Knicks win this series, over history this has done well enough.

I haven't checked every year but many.

If the player regarded as the best player on the team is below a PER of 24 in regular  season which I regard as an elite player then there are examples that player does not win MVP. 

Just happened couple years ago with Brown winning  MVP not Tatum.

Sometimes the best player in PER not the player consider the best on the team   wins the MVP .

That'd be Towns.

If you want a longer shot player maybe grab Anunby, he has improved his PER by a very big amount in the playoffs and is over 24 in playoffs and 2cd best on the team.

I did spend time looking that up and could not find a player on starting 5 that improved by such a large amount .as Anunby.

Brunson regarded as the best player but under 24 in both regular season and playoffs. 

Towns I think is over 27 in playoffs, that is into very strong play.

Towns would be my favorite for MVP if Knicks win with Anunby the long shot. 

I have no idea how accurate and predictive ESPN Analytics are, but they give SA just a 54% of taking the series.  That makes SA quite overpriced at Heritage which has SA -193 to win the title.  

Yes I think Knicks playing so strong,  most using any kind of stats have to favor the Knicks for value...............

The only question is that because of easy SOS or playing too high above their abilities and not sustainable. 

Spurs are easily the better team in regular season but Knicks seemed to turn a corner in playoffs.

Towns MVP +2200 ---- .25 units to win 5.5 units

Anunoby to win MVP +2800 --- .1 units to win 2.8 units

To think I could of had Anunoby at +6600. Waited too long to make the play.

The +6600 is the nice longshot play, according to AI it is out there at +6000 somewhere but I cannot get any better then the +2800 .

I don't like it as much at +2800 price.

Same goes for the Spurs if they win the title.

Wemby the best player is well over a PER of 24 so that makes him the clear choice for MVP .

Not that anyone needed convincing, pretty obvious there but just saying applying this rule. 

Wemby leads all Players in the  playoffs with a 1.6 VORP.

Towns 1.5

But think about this........ VORP is cumulative, so in other words more games more minutes played creates larger VORP.

Wenby played 3 more games and about 2 more minutes per game to be only very slightly ahead of Towns.

If we were to find the ave VORP per game and per minute Towns wins hands-down. 

Towns contributing more the Wenby, granted with easy SOS but i do think we can over-look this.

Towns leads all players with a very strong winshares per 48 minutes at .346  or something around there with Anunoby at like .325 and Wenby .246 or something  close to that.

Also why I'd like Towns as MVP if Knicks win the series.

Wemby does have a small edge in PER in playoffs, by like .3 or so.

But Towns has far less usage then Wemby which is important  to note.

It's going to be very interesting for sure. 

 I saw online home teams game 1 in the finals are 17-4 ATS since 2004.

Home teams game 1 off less rest ....... 8-2 ATS

Ken Massey is a well-respected statistican, so his power ratings definitely incorporate strength of schedule.  This is just a reminder that NY's apparently powerhouse OFF has been puffed up by facing weak DEF teams - these are KM's DEF ranks of NY's PO opponents:

ATL 18, PHL 16, CLV 15 --- SA is 4.

A link to Ken Massey's NBA power ratings:

https://masseyratings.com/nba/ratings

@DogbiteWilliams

Yes Massey's PR list NYK over SAS, but only in PR.  SAS has a higher overall rating at #2 vs #3 for NYK.  I know it sounds nit-picky, but Massey's predictions are only based on PR.  Just saying

@theclaw

 Anunoby +4000 on Draftkings 

How do you use Massey's overall ratings?  I understand the rankings, but the actual figures are clustered very close together and I have no idea how to use them.