Here's something to watch for at halftime tonight of Kings-Warriors

Something messed up. I'm going to re-post this thread within half an hour.

A Steve Kerr tirade about gun control?

Yes, hoping for the Steve Karren breakdown this evening.  

In RLeith's thread this morning, he posted the following trend...

 GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 ATS (11.7 Units) in home games on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.

I looked up those games and found that the trend is accurate. I then posted this...

The Warriors were 4-1 ATS at home on Friday nights last season during the regular season with wins by 41, 26, 15, and 22 points. The lone non-cover was a 2-point win over the Rockets. In the playoffs the Warriors went 2-0 ATS, defeating the Grizzlies 110-96 in the Game 6 clincher and then downing the Mavs 126-117 in Game 2 of the Western conference finals.

This season, the Warriors went 9-2 ATS at home on Friday nights. Their first attempt of the season was a home loss to the Nuggets way back on October 21st. That occurred in the midst of Golden State's terrible 3-7 start to the season. They then covered nine times in a row until coming up just short on March 31st in a 130-115 win over the Spurs in which the Warriors were huge 17.5-point favorites.

15-3 ATS is great, but then I checked the 1st halves to see if the trend was even better or worse. It was worse, but that led to something better. In 4 of those 18 games, the Warriors held a double-digit lead at halftime. They lost those 2nd halves by 3, 1 , and 2 points, and they won one of them by 1 point. But in the other 14 games where the Warriors didn't lead at halftime by double-digits, the heroic Dubs proceeded to go a perfect 14-0 ATS in the 2nd halves, winning them by an average score of 65-51.

In 5 of those 18 games, the Warriors were losing at halftime. They won those 2nd halves by an asskicking average of 62.6 to 40.1. Damn!

Two of these Friday night home games took place during last year's playoffs. The Warriors led the Grizzlies 53-51 at halftime of the Game 6 clincher. They pulled away 57-45 in the 2nd half en route to a 110-96 win. One week later, the Warriors got blitzed 72-58 in the 1st half by the Mavs in Game 2 of the Western conference finals. The 2nd half was a Warriors wipeout. They trampled the Mavs 68-43 and won the game 126-117.

So, as long as the Warriors aren't leading at halftime tonight by 10 points or more, we'll all have the GREEN light to bet in an irresponsible manner on the Warriors at halftime no matter what line gets posted.

According to many years of Covers tradition, this is the part where I'm supposed to tell you to thank me later. Well, screw that. I'm not doing it. Let's hope the Kings can stay at least mildly competitive in the 1st half tonight so we can all enjoy the 2nd half as the Warriors wave goodbye to the Kings and win us some beautiful money in the process.

@MrBator

 Very good find bator, will be keeping a eye on this.

Gl tonight 

Interesting 

@MrBator

 some good info! 

Good stuff Mr Bator.

I'd be highly suspicious of trends in these playoffs.

On 4/24, MIL was a sizable FAVORITE. They had the EARLY lead, the HT lead, the 3Q lead (won every Q), had a double-digit 4Q lead, and as the #1 seed, still lost @ MIA.

MIL was 19-0 for the season before that. They ended at 19-1.

On 4/26, MIL was a DD FAVORITE. They had a bigger 4Q lead than last game, at HOME, and lost to MIA.

MIL was 15-1 for the season before that. They ended at 15-2.

On 4/25, BOS was a DD FAVORITE. They had the HT lead, won the 3Q, and had a double-digit 4Q lead, at HOME. Yet, they lost vs. ATL.

BOS was 21-0 at HOME, for the season in that spot. Now, they are 21-1.

On 4/26, GSW lost the 1st Q on the ROAD. Yet, they WON @SAC who had a 17-5 record at HOME, with the 1Q lead.

GSW was 1-20 on the ROAD, for the season, when they lost the 1Q. Now, they are 2-20.

Glad I don't rely on trends in these spots for my picks.

@ParlayBuster

 When Bator posts you shut up, listen, and blindly TAIL. 

He's only 1 of 2 in my 10+ years on here that I can say that about. 

When MB speaks you follow!

Good info! I have so much on warrs tonight + props 

Not sure u can count on regular season trends vs the playoffs...Sure the Warriors blew out a lot of teams at home in the 2nd half but a lot of those teams are not the kings who had one of the best road records in the league....And the teams the Warriors played on Friday nights were they missing players or out of the playoffs and nothing to play for..Were they on B2B's etc...u can't just blindly take GS 2nd half if they are not up by DD at the half.. 

Some people are so reluctant to win money. I've always found it tragically intriguing. Davemsh, did you catch the part where I mentioned where 2 of these 14 situations took place in the playoffs and Warriors covered EASILY both times? Like, really easily?

[Quote: Originally Posted by davemsh]Not sure u can count on regular season trends vs the playoffs...Sure the Warriors blew out a lot of teams at home in the 2nd half but a lot of those teams are not the kings who had one of the best road records in the league....And the teams the Warriors played on Friday nights were they missing players or out of the playoffs and nothing to play for..Were they on B2B's etc...u can't just blindly take GS 2nd half if they are not up by DD at the half..[/Quote

I'm telling you that you can.

MrBator: "Guys, here's how we can win tonight"

Davemsh: "You can't MAKE me win!"

MrBator: "Okayyy.....guys, here how we can win tonight without davemsh"

Good info Bator. You going to be on the Nuggs game one? I know you like them for the series. But game one. Just curious.

@MrBator

 Thanks. Your the best 

@MrBator

  I'm Sorry..I did not agree with you..You are the best

Yes, and then even bigger on the Nuggets in Game 2 after they win Game 1.

Why even bigger on game 2? Is there a trend there? What if the Suns steal game one? Bigger than life in game two?

I am glad it is the early game and I won't sleep on this one.  

Good Info Good Luck!