Paging Mr. Bator

I'm  really surprised Bochy didn't push the envelope here,  to set the tone in the series... 

Astros bettors got cruelly teased by Alex Bregman’s high fly ball to deep left center. Off the bat, it looked like he’d tied the game. But instead, that pesky rookie Evan Carter camped under it right in front of the wall and made the catch. Then Altuve, who had just stepped on second base prior to the catch being made, FAILED to step on second base on his return to first base! The Rangers challenged that and won. Altuve walked back to the dugout feeling two inches tall.

Full disclosure - l typed all that just so I could finish with “Altuve walked back to the dugout feeling two inches tall.”

Thank you @Mr Bator

Lol

Great call!!! 

Thanks Mr. Bator!!! 

That was really funny!  Thanks again for the play. 

@Michigan_D

 What are you talking about!?

This forum is full of people who's life revolves around attention seeking. 

Bator simply answers the question with 70+% accuracy.

@MrBator

Could you pls give your thoughts on the Diamondbacks and Phillies series?  Which side you would take and confidence level.  Any info would be greatly greatly appreciated!

That would be the right thing to do

or, do a target commercial

SNAP

Three days ago I fired on the D-Backs +170 to win the series over the Phillies. In a postseason that has seen spirited underdogs repeatedly getting the best of sizable favorites, why stop betting on them now? I have a lot of respect for the Phillies and even more for their obvious home field advantage, but they've just gone from the spirited underdogs who throttled the mighty Atlanta Braves to the sizable favorites that most are now expecting will return to the World Series for the second year in a row. The Phillies seem determined to get this done, but it is just hard and perhaps unwise to ask any favorite to win a game, let alone a series, in these 2023 playoffs. In the meantime, the 84-win D-Backs (who are now the 89-win D-Backs) remain comfortably in their underdog role, with few believers outside of their fan base who think they're going any further than this NLCS.

Both teams are coming in after impressive wins in their respective division series, but the Phillies' win over the Braves is getting more respect. This is understandable, as the Phillies have now taken down the 101-win Braves and the 104-win Braves in the last two postseasons while winning the games at Citizens Bank Park by scores of 9-1, 8-3, 10-2, and 3-1. The D-Backs swept the Dodgers, and they did it rather decisively winning every game by more than one run, but praise for the feisty D-Backs has been drowned out by the scorn aimed at the dazed Dodgers, a powerhouse regular season team that has become a postseason punchline, an annual October joke.

The D-Backs along with the scary Texas Rangers are undefeated so far. This improbable run for Arizona was triggered in their first game in Milwaukee. They kinda had no one else ready to start Game 1 so they turned to rookie Brandon Pfaadt, whose numbers made him look like the unlikeliest of Game 1 starting pitchers. And he got off to a shaky start, allowing the first three Brewers to reach base as the D-Backs instantly fell behind 1-0. In the bottom of the 2nd inning he coughed up a 2-run shot, and no one was surprised to see the D-Backs sinking fast. But in the top of the 3rd, Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte hit back-to-back home runs and the game was suddenly tied. Rookie catcher Gabriel Moreno led off the top of the 4th with a home run and suddenly the Brewers were losing as their hushed fans looked on in puzzlement. And that was it, the D-Backs never looked back and the Brewers never scored again, getting blanked over the final 7 innings by six courageous members of the D-Backs bullpen. 

In Game 2, tonight's starter Zac Gallen got off to a shaky start when he gave up 2 runs in the 1st inning, but that would be it for the Brewers for the season. The D-Backs broke through in the top of the 6th against Freddy Peralta and two Brewers relievers, scoring 4 times to take a 5-2 lead. Four D-Backs relievers then shut the door. This team flew to Los Angeles clearly toughened up and feeling like they could do anything, and it showed when they quickly crippled the Dodgers emotionally in the 1st inning of Game 1, scoring five times before the last strains of the national anthem had floated away beyond the outfield pavilion.

So, do you really think it's a good idea to lay -185 or so against this fearless bunch? I don't, so I eagerly bet the D-Backs +170 on Friday while evil sportsbooks DraftKings and William Stinking Hill were still gladly accepting bets on the Phillies -170. By the way, for anyone interested in getting down on the Phillies to win the series, DraftKings still has the lowest price anywhere with -175. That's not a good sign for Philly sports fans is all I can say.

In addition, I also bet on the D-Backs -1.5 games at +290. Not to belabor the point about what a diabolical operation they have going on at DraftKings, but when I placed that -1.5 +290 bet at Circa here in Las Vegas, the line at DraftKings was Phillies +1.5 -280 and the D-Backs -1.5 +235. Three days later they have the Phillies +1.5 -280 and the D-Backs -1.5 +230 (I guess -1.5 +235 was a bit too much).

I also bet on the D-Backs +725 to win the series in exactly 6 games. DraftKings had +650 on that and their price is now +600. If the D-Backs carry a 3-2 series lead back to Philadelphia a week from today, most people are going to think it's a foregone conclusion that of course the Phillies will tie things up and force a Game 7. But I say....no. The D-Backs are too vicious a barking road dog.

Here are all my series bets:

D-Backs +170 to win the series (10 units to win 17)

D-Backs -1.5 games +290 (3 units to win 8.7)

D-Backs +725 to win in 6 games (4 units to win 29)

D-Backs +1.5 games -125 (5 units to win 4)

D-Backs +2.5 games -335 (6.7 units to win 2)

I added that last prop bet simply because the price was really low. By comparison, William Stinking Hill has the D-Backs +2.5 games -400. William Stinking Hill sucks.

@MrBator

 Whats your involvement in Game 2 of ALCS?

@MrBator

 Anything for the early game sir

@MrBator

 Sounds like we have a live dog in Arizona Game 1....thanks for the write up....

This is a tough one. Yesterday I thought the playoff-toughened Astros, who had played in NINETY playoff games since 2017, were going to step in the way of the red-hot Rangers who were playing in their sixth playoff game after having been absent from the playoffs since 2016. Wrong. I also thought people were perhaps underestimating the Astros because they actually finished this season with a losing record at home. Well, that losing record at home should have served as a warning to all Astros backers. Not only did they finish a poor 39-42 at Minute Maid Park, but they got noticeably worse towards the end of the season.

On August 12th, after a second straight 11-3 romp over the Angels, everything seemed fine as the Astros stood 33-25 at home. But would you believe they finished losing 17 of their last 23? The Astros actually lost 2 out of 3 to the lowly A's, and they actually lost all three home games against the Royals.

Now they've lost 2 out of 3 home playoff games, and they simply look like they can't be trusted. But on the other hand, as last night's losing pitcher Justin Verlander pointed out, the Astros lost Game 1 of last year's World Series and then won Game 2. They also lost Game 1 of the 2021 World Series to the Braves and then won Game 2. So do you go by that, or do you go by current form? I'd feel foolish betting and losing against a Texas Rangers team that seems to be doing everything right. Last night Bruce Bochy decided to make things interesting by bringing the highly flammable Aroldis Chapman into the game, and even that worked out in the Rangers favor.

I'll probably pass.

@MrBator

 TY sir. Appreciate the thoughts on ALCS game 2.

D-backs it is.

@MrBator

 But will you be on Dbacks tonight. .any over/unders?

@MrBator

Your under bet was  yesterday on Game 1

Your thoughts on the O/U for either for the games? 

So did I really pass on a playoff game? No, of course not. I just bet on under 8.5 -105 and also parlayed the Rangers +110 to under 8.5 -105. The total risk on this under adds up to two-thirds of the risk on last night's under.

I'll be on the D-Backs tonight if I get a price I like. I'd say there's an excellent chance of that happening, and if I place a bet, I'll post it here.

Always good to see ya Bator

Thanks MrBator. I know I appreciate your valuable insight, whether you win or lose, your approach is usually very solid. 

Ive been a lurker here for years. This type of discussion is what made this place valuable years ago. 

Thanks again. Go D Backs!

@MrBator

Thank you so much for that detailed write up, it is greatly appreciated! You are one of the best in the business!  BOL with your picks tonight and through the rest of the playoffs.