I really wasn’t worried about syndicates moving lines, Michael taking a nap, or any of that shit.
It came down to what I always do. I wait for the lineup, and sometimes when that shit comes out the line gets away from me. I wasn’t paying the tax.
But it does feel good that the handicap was dead on so far. Now we pivot to the night games and go secure some fucking bags.
The Angels lineup just came out, and I like what I see for Houston.
They’re sending a very left handed lineup at Lambert, and that’s exactly the side he’s dominated this season. Trout, Neto and Grissom are the right-handed bats he really has to navigate.
This lineup definitely strengthens the Houston first-five case. Now I just need to see what Houston rolls out against Rodriguez.
The Houston lineup is out and it passes the test for me.
Pena and Walker are out, so it’s not perfect, but Yordan, Paredes, Altuve, Varsho and Cam Smith are all in there. More importantly, Rodriguez has been getting hit hard from both sides and Houston still has enough bats to take advantage.
The Angels lineup also sets up well for Lambert.
Houston 1st 5 -0.5 is still my strongest look on the late card.
I still want Houston F5 -0.5 I did not find a reason to kill it.
The strongest part is still Rodriguez, and the deeper numbers remain awful. His fastball is being hit .319 with a .603 slugging percentage, .428 xwOBA, .591 xSLG and a 56% hard-hit rate. The problem for him is he throws that pitch more than half the time, so this is not some secondary pitch Houston may never see. His overall line is 7.17 ERA, 6.39 xERA and 1.59 WHIP.
Lambert is almost the mirror image: 3.11 ERA, 3.35 xERA and 1.15 WHIP, and he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts. When he saw the Angels previously, he gave Houston five innings, two runs and six strikeouts. The current Angels lineup does nothing to make me suddenly dislike that matchup.
There is also actual matchup history supporting Houston. Astros hitters have produced about a .365 xwOBA against Rodriguez, while Lambert has held Angels hitters to roughly a .194 xBA in their previous plate appearances against him.
Now the legitimate reason to hesitateHouston’s offense has been cold as shit and Houston is ass
I already beat this Houston handicap to death, so I’m not gonna write a fucking novel again.
The major position is Houston 1st 5 -0.5 -120. That’s where I think the real edge is. Lambert has been nails, Rodriguez has been getting hit hard, and I want to isolate that starting pitching mismatch for five innings.
I’m also taking a smaller shot on Houston -1.5 +109
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