10/18

HOU O41.5 -104

GL Raiders 

Surprised to see only one play 

Good Luck Raiders22 

Raiders 22 good luck early 

GLuck buddy   

@Raiders22

@Raiders22

 Suerte amigo 

what happened? Are you injured lol!

GL on your play Raiders!! 

39-22            +1600

HOU O41.5 -104

TEN +6.5 -102

ATL +102

NE TT U26.5 -117

LAC +8 -106

LAC U41.5 -106

LV +4.5 +102

DAL +1 -108

DAL O53 -108

WAS +7.5 -107

Thanks guys 

Was traveling and waiting on a couple of things to move -- that did not.

BOL to everyone today 

@Raiders22

@Raiders22

@Raiders22

 Bol today Raiders

@Raiders22

 What puts you on WAS tn? Everything seems to point to SF here yet the line stays steady. If anything looks like taking the points with WAS is getting a little expensive at some places. Do we actually get a decent performance from the commanders today?

@brn2loslive2win

This is the biggest public play of the week and maybe the biggest pubic play of the year.

I get that the public is sometimes correct. I do not mind being with the public from time to time.

For example, last week SF was a public play and I rode with them and they won outright.

Obviously, Daniels being back is a huge upgrade.  Now with his rushing threat and it will open up the passing somewhat.

SF may be down a bit ofter the huge ‘upset’ win last week.  WAS has the ‘advantage’ of being the last team in their division to play this week.

They know if they could win they would be looking great.  They also know even if they lose that they are still in the mix.

SF can be run on at times.

For example, their DEF success rate is 14th overall. 

BUT their DEF success rate against the RUN is 30th.

The issue is that SF has been jumping out to big leads and teams have to stop running and go to throwing and the DEF can tee off on them.

Mariotta being out is a HUGE concern.  Because if Daniels gets hurt then Kaliakmanis would be the next guy up.

So, I am really counting on Daniels to stay in the guy AND produce.

No Bosa will help I think.  SF has some injuries on defensive line and some concerns at linebacker.

WAS run blocking stuff rate is 16th.  But SF DEF run stuff rate is 22nd.

SF Run DEF EPA is -.046. Last week against SEA it was -.518.

WAS with Daniels at QB and Cosmi at guard averages 172 yards rushing 5.5 avg and EPA .136

Without them 91 yards rushing 3.5 avg and EPA -.282.

Daniels 117 rtg with a clean pocket.  SF pressure% is 18th.

So, WAS looks to be able to move the ball on SF.  

BUT will they finish drives off with CDs and NOT settle for FGs.

Because SF is going to be able to move the ball it would seem, for sure.

But there is concern with SF WRs.  Evans did not practice.  They really need him after how he did last week against SEA.  Deebo out.  Pearsall out.  Stripling out.  So Brandon Cooks it is.

Amos and Cross might be back for WAS secondary.

But a concern is that WAS blitzes a bit too much and does not generate enough pressure.  Purdy EATS UP the blitz.

WAS RUN DEF has been decent at point of attack.  Stuff rate is 16th. So, I think WAS can present a different look than SF is used to.  SF is used to bulldozing people at the line to create running space.

Efficiency ratings:

WAR:

SF 2.7     WAS 1.4

PASS: 

SF .7       WAS .9

RUSH:

SF .1       WAS .2

REC:

SF 1.0      WAS -.6

Pass Def:

SF .7       WAS .6

Pass Rush:

SF -.1      WAS -.1

Run Def:

SF .3       WAS .4

I am sure that was far more detail than you wanted or were asking for.

There are some tends of sorts, like the primetime dog trend, Monday night dogs of 7+, 39-56 against team on Monday night with better record.  But lately in primetime SF is positive and WAS is negative.

I just think the potential for a ‘letdown’ of sorts for SF (not that I think they might actually lose) and the positive outlook for WAS with standings is a better spot for WAS to keep it close.

I think the injury situation favors WAS and the way I see the game is ‘most likely’ to play out.

With all of that being said I played WAS very big last Sunday and Monday.  I also played the over as well but not as big.

I have WAS +7.5 -105 and WAS O50.5 -105

But obviously for the posting I can only post WAS +7.5 

@brn2loslive2win

 Do you like SF?  If so, what is your reasoning?

@Raiders22

 Good stuff.

And all the 49ers vs the run stuff you wrote is about to put me on the Falcons +4.5 for next week. Amongst other things.

I just have to look further into it, and decide if I want to bet that line before this game kicks off tonight.

Good Luck with Washington

@undermysac

 Thanks.

Yeah I almost did the same earlier.  But there are some very scattered 5s out there now.

Plus I think it is very key how the game comes out tonight.

If by chance SF loses, the number will be better.  I could even see it getting better if they blow WAS out.

So, I held off on that one.  

ATL also all of a sudden concerns me for a few reasons.

Good luck and I am on the same side with you. Kyle Shannahan is 7-6 ATS on MNF he seems very unstable on these games. Putting the trends aside the commanders specially Dan Quinn is on hot water right now after the comical skit of time management against the Giants. NFC East is still very much open so Commanders are very much primed to take that spot. 49ers is also due from regression with Evans out of this game that takes out one of their explosive receivers. I will not be surprised if Commanders win straight up!