Couple thoughts

Houston 1H -0.5

Lambert’s numbers are excellent 3.06 ERA, 3.35 xERA, .204 xBA, .343 xSLG and .285 xwOBA allowed, with only a 6.5% barrel rate. Those numbers say his success is legitimate, not smoke and mirrors…

Rodriguez is the exact opposite. 7.17 ERA, 6.38 xERA, .288 xBA, .505 xSLG, .379 xwOBA, 48.6% hard-hit and 10.9% barrels. He is allowing substantially worse contact than league average, and his expected numbers confirm the ugly ERA…

Houston is still pre-lineup, so I haven’t locked anything in yet. There’s definitely a pitching advantage, but as somebody posted last week, Houston sucks ass so there’s  always that angle.

I’m 1-1 on Milwaukee in this series. Went back with them last night and that ginger snap bastard buried us early in a hole we couldn’t dig out of.

But I like Milwaukee again today, and I’ll tell you why.

The biggest thing for me is that Kirby is not giving Seattle the a big pitching advantage. His current Statcast line is roughly a 3.88 xERA with a 41.9% hard hit rate, while Gasser is around a 4.15 xERA but only 33% hard hit and 6% barrels. 

Kirby pieces 4.55 road ERA, 5.05 daytime ERA, and this is a daytime road start. His recent form has also been dicey . Five starts ago he gave up 7 runs to Texas, and last time out Houston got him for 8 hits and 5 earned in 4.2 innings, with only 2 strikeouts. 

I’m basically stripping the weird first two games out. The 22-0 game tells us almost nothing by itself. Last night Milwaukee was down 7-0 after two innings because May got annihilated, but Seattle scored nothing over the final seven innings and Milwaukee still battled it back to 7-5 while going just 2 for 10 with runners in scoring position

Milwaukee is the better overall team at home, Kirby’s underlying/recent/day-road profile is much more hittable than his numbers suggests, and Gasser’s Statcast contact profile is better than his ERA makes him look at roughly -125, I think Milwaukee is playable.

But the real question is do I wanna be fucking aggravated at work sweating a baseball game after Milwaukee shit on me yesterday

I don’t know. This one is gonna have to line up damn near perfectly before I put myself through that shit again.

Good luck Truck.  

I like posting my plays and sweating my bets in public. I don’t know why, but I’ve been doing it for years and I think it keeps me sharper.

Sometimes though, a guy comes into the thread saying that game a looser, spells loser wrong, and then the game loses. Now I’m convinced he’s the fucking jinx.

That’s why I like X  block button, problem solved.

But I probably need to toughen up. Just because a guy wears a helmet to the movies doesn’t mean he’s the jinx. It probably had more to do with the handicap. 

@Way2Good

Next I want to tear apart Yankees/Orioles, specifically the Yankees first five. 

@kidd22

 We’re smashing today, kid. We are fucking smashing

@LVTruck

 Sounds like a good plan to me 

Cole has been lights fucking out in August, and on paper this looks like a perfect first five setup.

Then I look at the Yankees bats and think, oh fuck, misery. Can they scratch across one or two runs and let Cole do the rest  I have no idea.

Meanwhile Baltimore’s lineup is getting stronger with Samuel Basallo back.

This one definitely needs a deeper dive before I trust it.

@LVTruck

 leaning yankees f5 too but no play for me. not a premium spot imo. but I might be wrong.

Huge O's fan...

GRod not himself after injuries...

Houston TT O 4.5  115-100.......

@LVTruck

 Cole 2.39  ERA career vs the Birds

Bradish 3.40..ERA  vs NY..

Huge game for my O's ...

Not a must win for the O's but close to it

to remain in the WC  chase.....

Tampa F5 -0.5 is very much alive, and the reason is mostly the starting-pitching 

Seymour has a 4.11 ERA but a much better 3.66 xERA, plus a 21.1% K-BB rate. Bieber is sitting at 4.99 ERA with an ugly 6.82 xERA, only a 6.0% K-BB rate, a 47.4% hard-hit rate and 11.5% barrels. Those underlying numbers say Bieber has been pitching worse than even his ERA suggests

All right, that’s my working short card. Somewhere in this fucking mess is one game that’s gonna pass the stress test and give me enough confidence to absolutely unload on it.

That’s what I’m working on today. We’ll see what survives.