Posted:
#26
@bigred84
I’m still diving in, but I’ve got a feeling the Yankees are gonna be the first game to fall off this short card.
That one might not survive
Couple thoughts
Posted:
#34
The lineups are out in the Milwaukee game and this one definitely has my interest.
The first thing I notice is Seattle did not load up with right handed bats against Gasser. Donovan, Canzone, Naylor and Cole Young are all hitting left handed, with Rodden switch-hitting. That matters because Gasser has been considerably tougher on lefties than righties.
Milwaukee is missing William Contreras and I do care about that, but the core is still there with Turang, Chourio, Bauers, Yelich and Ortiz, plus Gary Sanchez gives them another legitimate power bat. This is not some watered lineup.
Seattle’s lineup does not scare me either. Arozarena, Julio and Ward are the main right-handed bats Gasser has to deal with, but he gets several favorable same-side matchups around them.
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:
Houston 1H -0.5 Lambert’s numbers are excellent 3.06 ERA, 3.35 xERA, .204 xBA, .343 xSLG and .285 xwOBA allowed, with only a 6.5% barrel rate. Those numbers say his success is legitimate, not smoke and mirrors… Rodriguez is the exact opposite. 7.17 ERA, 6.38 xERA, .288 xBA, .505 xSLG, .379 xwOBA, 48.6% hard-hit and 10.9% barrels. He is allowing substantially worse contact than league average, and his expected numbers confirm the ugly ERA… Houston is still pre-lineup, so I haven’t locked anything in yet. There’s definitely a pitching advantage, but as somebody posted last week, Houston sucks ass so there’s always that angle.
Houston 1H -0.5 Lambert’s numbers are excellent 3.06 ERA, 3.35 xERA, .204 xBA, .343 xSLG and .285 xwOBA allowed, with only a 6.5% barrel rate. Those numbers say his success is legitimate, not smoke and mirrors… Rodriguez is the exact opposite. 7.17 ERA, 6.38 xERA, .288 xBA, .505 xSLG, .379 xwOBA, 48.6% hard-hit and 10.9% barrels. He is allowing substantially worse contact than league average, and his expected numbers confirm the ugly ERA… Houston is still pre-lineup, so I haven’t locked anything in yet. There’s definitely a pitching advantage, but as somebody posted last week, Houston sucks ass so there’s always that angle.
I believe that was me lol. They are my top play for today. They were good to me at the beginning of the year. Not so much recently.
Posted:
#38
Kirby was scheduled to pitch Game 1 of this series vs Harrison but got swapped with Miller and then Milwaukee line steamed like it was foregone conclusion that brewers were gonna win game 1. My interpretation of the move was that Mariners didn’t like the matchup with Harrison, so they essentially sacrificed game 1 in order to give themselves every advantage to win game 2 and game 3. Judging by the final score of 22-0 and saving the bullpen, I’d say Mariners have better than market price of winning game 3. Every game for Seattle is a game 7 at this point just to make the playoffs, brewers have already clinched so this is a sunday tee ball game for them. GL
Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:
Besides it being a pretty lopsided wager today, can anybody make a fucking case for Seattle? Seriously, is there anything I’m missing
Besides it being a pretty lopsided wager today, can anybody make a fucking case for Seattle? Seriously, is there anything I’m missing
Nope. Including that Kirby is far better at home than on the road and his one start against Milwaukee lifetime didn't fare well.
But anything is possible as you well know.
Posted:
#42
I’ve been breaking this game down all morning and seriously considering Milwaukee, but I’ve also been multitasking and wasn’t staring at the odds screen.
I finally checked my book and Milwaukee is now -150. That’s roughly a 25-cent move from where I first looked this morning.
Normally I’d try to find some value in the first five, but I don’t love that route here because Kirby isn’t some fucking bum. The full game was what interested me. Now the question is whether -150 is just too expensive.
Posted:
#43
Don’t do it. Line steam is a headfake, I actually know the group who did it. It’s Seattle or nothing. I was on them Huge yesterday and I’m going back to the well today. Just monitoring the line, expect some buyback on Seattle late, should close brewers-125/ Seattle +110 across market. Take the +130 now, won’t be available for long.
Posted:
#47
When sharps bet $1 million+ on a game moving the line 25 cents is roughly about an extra quarter million+ in additional profits. I’m expecting late Seattle buyback steam to happen at 1:40 est or after, that’s when the books allow them to get down the highest limits, 30 minutes before game time.
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