October Stock Talk 4

the secular bear market we entered back in 2000 will not likely end until roughly 2015, and the secular inflationary trend that began in 2003 will be in place until 2015 as well. This time frame makes sense when looking at the historical script of secular inflationary events that typically last roughly 17 years when excluding the protracted 1879-1920 event. The actual bottom in the year-over-year (YOY) rate of change in the CPI came in 1998 at 1.55%, with the smoothed rate bottoming in 2003 at 2.45%. Taking the average secular inflationary length of 17 years and using 1998 as the disinflationary bottom and you get 2015, also the bottom in the relative demographic ratio which should correspondingly mark the peak in inflation and bottom in productivity gains.

 Daily moves of anything are of some small interest I suppose.Oil is going down,too, making it cheaper for those about to be thrown out of work to drive around looking for the jobs that are not going to be there.



 

Here we go again, probably going to test the lows from last week.

I just noticed aig's dividend .88 or .22 qtrly the stocks price is 2.22

will this dividend change ?? if so when ???

.88 is like 40% return. 

even if the company goes down to $1 the dividend alone would make it a great investment at that price.

I figure wall you would have the best knowledge on this what do you think ??

Win, would that be the LAST quarterly dividend?  Ain't no guarantees on dividends.  I would expect them to slash or eliminate for the next quarter given their situation.

MGM down 14% under $13.  Is this company ever going to be a buy?

D2 yeah thats their last quartly dividend i believe.

would their div still be good for the 4th qtr im wondering. the 3rd qtr looks like it was paid on 9-19-08

About 300 points of last week's low.  Dow -700 would break lows.  We see that today?

 AIG keeping its dividend is as likely as Hank Greenberg keeping an erection.

  It will be under $2 in a couple of weeks CC, selling for $2.54 down the street here

I do not know about you CC, but I hardly pay attention to early trading.The only time I really pay attention is 3-4 pm.

 I do see that SKF has headed upwards again...damn.

I think my Dow wager finishing up today is in trouble

oil and gold down 5% each roughly

and the vix is up above 80

fwiw - governments worldwide are selling and shorting those two dollar hedge/flight to safety commodities

the game is rigged to make everything appear as normal...

carry on

I think the VIX isnt meaning much because there arent market participants so the volitility is extreme. In the past there were MMs and firms and hedgies who made markets in stocks and that reduced downside swings and extreme upside swings.

Nice little bounce here early, too bad they can vaporize it in 5 minutes on a few down ticks.  

 I do not think our government in particular is capable of commanding an economy.Command economies are 0 for the centuries, and will remain at that average.We will simply add to the count.

 So I have been happy to bet against the financial acumen of Congress.
 
  The guys who people are expected to trust to solve this mess are the very ones that created it.

 And while everyone is concerned about the financial arena, they had better factor in serious defeats in the military and war on terror, and imagine the VIX after, say, after a major explosion in a European capital.