October Stock Talk 4

Holiday on Monday, so everyone enjoy a long weekend.

Isn't the market still open on Monday though?

banks closed, mkt open

Deposited some gambling money today and now it wont be there till tuesday.

 

Hopefully winnings, and not a reload.

 

Grid,

This would be investment gambling..



Ive got my positions and I keep adding, I just see an opportunity to gamble for a big return and I am going to give it a shot..all or nothing sort of play that I wouldnt list here.

For those buying DRYS today not only do you get yourself a stock with a 2009 PE of 2 but you also get a nice 4.5% dividend. 

I picked up a few more shares along with some DOW.  Probably some more downside risk on DOW but at my entry point i get myself a fat dividend of 7%

 

"Investment Gambling" 

Truer words have never been spoken.  But it's a lot easier to tell your wife you "invested" in the stock market, then it is to tell her you wheeled the 2 and 5 horse up and down in an exacta and boxed those two with the field in a trifecta, in the fifth, at Raceway Park....................trust me. 

Grid,

Ive been married a VERY long time and she is pretty smart..she knows what both terms are and knows about this decision too.

No slush funds at our house, when I take a gamble she knows and we talk about it.

I have taken many positions like this, hopefully my portfolio will pay dividend's this season. my advisor has just told me the detroit lions have been upgraded to over-perform this weekend with a possible merger with OVER .

I dont see it that way.

We respect each other and discuss pretty much everything, its always been that way.

I dont get it when people have slush funds..pretty freaky to me.

 It is going to be a long long weekend for some people.

 And as for DRYS, the shipping industry as a whole seems grinding to a halt...

"The credit crisis is spilling over into the grain industry as international buyers find themselves unable to come up with payment, forcing sellers to shoulder often substantial losses.

"Before cargoes can be loaded at port, buyers typically must produce proof they are good for the money. But more deals are falling through as sellers decide they don't trust the financial institution named in the buyer's letter of credit, analysts said.

"'There are all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can't be shipped because people can't get letters of credit,' said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. 'The problem is not demand, and it's not supply because we have plenty of supply. It's finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy.'

"So far the problem is mostly being felt in U.S. and South American ports, but observers say it is only a matter of time before it hits Canada. 'We've got a nightmare in front of us and a lot of people are concerned it's going to get a lot worse,' said Anthony Temple, a grain marketing expert based in Vancouver.

"Access to credit is key to the survival of maritime trade and insiders now say the supply is being severely restricted. More than 90% of the world's trade by volume goes by ship. 'The credit crisis has made banks nervous and the last thing on their minds is making fresh loans,' Omar Nokta, an analyst at investment bank Dahlman Rose, said in an interview with Reuters.

Vermeer,

That is very specific in definition.

Most public companies, say like DRYS and EXM and DSX and any listed deal with very high quality counter parties.

DRYS CEO was hit with a bunch of questions on a CC recently asking that exact question. He mentioned that in his twenty plus years in the industry that the number of times a counterparty didnt come through with their agreement was less than you could count on one hand.

The bigger players are not at risk here with non-payment from the counter party..rather the one or two vessel little guy who takes a contract and the second party might not be as trustworthy.

In DRYS case, their charters are with the bigger names like Cosco (not the grocery chain) who are huge multi-national companies who are shipping product around the world.

The other issue around credit is people buying new vessels, they arent getting the financing done and shipyards are going to be left on the hook which is good for cash rich companies or those with great credit histories that CAN get financing.

You have a point though, if the smaller shipper is making deals with lower credit worthy counter parties it would for sure clog up the ports..but in a way that would STIMULATE demand to me..since as the article says that demand isnt down and supply isnt down, rather port congestion..that would mean the bigger players will be able to obtain better terms and the counter parties are the ones who are going to be at risk, rather than the shippers...so the grain and fert companies are at risk.

When shippers make long term charters, they receive daily rates no matter what happens, thus at the time when they sign the charter they negociate lower terms than market to secure the income stream.

For big players and strong counter parties I dont see this concern ammounting to anything..but sentiment wise it surely effects the stock price, but I would consider that an inaccurate pricing and when the market corrects it will create a large move for the companies who were priced wrong for the wrong reasons.

Well, I see egomaniacal Cramer back at it again.

This guy is such a farking tool.  He gets one call right, and now he feels he is Mr Stock Market Guru again. 

Have no idea why this fool is on the airwaves.  There are plenty of people who are smart and funny and know something about the stock market-----why this clown?

He makes so many calls that if he gets one right he has three from the previous segment or another day that are completely inverse to the call he claims was correct.

He really should be taken off the air, its a total conflict of interest and it shows that the regulatory agencies are not policing again. Stock touts should not be allowed to mislead people as he does.

  I think anyone who is frightened because of Cramer is in no worse shape than those scared by Paulson and company.
In fact, I think Paulson's reckless fearmongering has materially contributed to the crisis is a way vastly more destructive that an entertainer like Cramer.Not to mention his stupid policy errors.

 

dow futures up 240 now

There is a lot of news that could be coming out in the next 15 hours that will affect that number.

We'll see how the rest of the world reacts to Fridays late bounce, Englands bank decisions, G7 news, etc.

I honestly think the market could use a few more days off like in the late 80's when they would take days off and resume trading.

markets really up at the moment lets hope it stays upp for the day