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Forex 2nd half 2014 discussion

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Posts: 193

Knoxpoker

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Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 1244

Posted: Jan. 16, 2015 - 12:42 PM ET #176

yes i hear you on the limit buy, they do have weird rules like that.

But this sucks today .. i had a great trade on AUS/USD as soon as the news came out and was up 26 pips. Then saw the news and closed the trade and put in the withdrawal.. I cant believe I am on the sidelines.. I might really think I might get heavy in E minis... I am really pissed..

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58424

Posted: Jan. 16, 2015 - 12:54 PM ET #177

I dont want to do futures or minis.

I think those waters are more dangerous than the Forex...so I wont do that.

Knoxpoker

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Posts: 1244

Posted: Jan. 16, 2015 - 2:42 PM ET #178

Wall did you see the press conference today ?? Obama and the PM of England.. Sanctions and possible war with Iran.. I am going short USD/CAD as of Monday morning and getting ready for a loooooong ride down... Oil spikes , USD/CAD tumbles..

I think the Dow is toast from here on out .. Forget 18,000 for a long time ..

wallstreetcappers

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Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58424

Posted: Jan. 16, 2015 - 3:42 PM ET #179

I agree with that if you are right..

I also am not sure that war means a down market..often times its the reverse.

War means government spending and corporate profits...

What makes the market go down is if Iran does something the market does not expect..it also makes oil and gold go up.

Oil moving strong all day, I think it has to do with the general risk on market today though.

Knoxpoker

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Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 1244

Posted: Jan. 16, 2015 - 4:18 PM ET #180

Quote Originally Posted by Knoxpoker:

Ok look at the charts and I posted the above statement on the close of Tuesday.. Where did we bounce??? 17,300 ... That level held thru 3 hard tries to get thru, and could not.. So I would look for a small down move tomorrow followed by some sort of up day.. But it friday going into a 3 day weekend so not much after 12 noon..

There is so much air under 17,300 , if the market broke that we would be in for a long haul pullback.. So a bounce there was not a surprise at all..

I have watched this market and it's rhythm and understand it completely.

There are 2 spots on the downside that will stop a down move.. 17,198 and 17,068.. If we get below 17,000 panic will set in and go down at least 500 more.. So keeping it up right now is a smart move.. they will pull the plug in the summer.. last summer was great for the market , this summer will bankrupt the retail investor, and there will be margin calls all over the place..

What did the market do today?? small down move followed by and nice up move... I might be 100 percent on the market moves...

BUY OIL BUY GOLD...!!! The Dow is toast the long term...

Fire_Control

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 922

Posted: Jan. 16, 2015 - 9:15 PM ET #181

Can we assume that Draghi tipped off the Swiss about the decision next weak?

Thinking of shorting the euro, anybody have thoughts or opinions on this?

wallstreetcappers

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Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58424

Posted: Jan. 16, 2015 - 11:06 PM ET #182

Ive been saying since 1.40 on the Euro that parity is fair value vs the dollar.

I wont go short because I cant go against someone on the opposite of the trade..I dont go that way.

I also said for a long time that the AU deserved to be .80 to the buck..it took a while but it also happened.

If you like a short EU trade I think there might be better juice going short the pound..it is still super high, if the Eurozone is slowing (which I believe) then it will hurt the pound and if the Euro is fair value at parity to me that means the pound should be 1.20 vs the dollar..

Fire_Control

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 922

Posted: Jan. 16, 2015 - 11:28 PM ET #183

Interesting take on the pound. Would if be wise to use forex or

something like fxe to short the euro?

Not sure what you mean by "go against someone on the opposite of the trade".

Knoxpoker

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Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 1244

Posted: Jan. 17, 2015 - 12:00 PM ET #184

Quote Originally Posted by Fire_Control:

Can we assume that Draghi tipped off the Swiss about the decision next weak?

Thinking of shorting the euro, anybody have thoughts or opinions on this?

Honestly Fire-Control I am going to tell you this. I am only looking at getting in on oil right now , I am going to be watching the forex markets and let the craziness play out and then just pick it apart.. I have no clue what is going to happen and seeing the move by the Swiss, which made a lot of sense, it scares me because a move live that can blow out an account.. Even with a stoploss in place a trade can slip. I had a trade on a news event slip 60 pips.. Only happened once , but it can happen.. Not many people I know are trading the forex markets until this Euro crap slows down. There will be many opportunities very soon.. I hope this is what I have been waiting for .

The dollar crashing , oil going thru the roof, and the market tumbling with it.. The old saying is "Escalator to the top , elevator to the bottom." There is nothing better then shorting in a panic mode market. Quickest money ever.

Fire_Control

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Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 922

Posted: Jan. 17, 2015 - 12:19 PM ET #185

Knox,

Thanks for taking the time to respond. You have made some good calls recently and seem to have a good understanding of the markets. Are you thinking we have a 2008 style crash soon?

wallstreetcappers

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Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58424

Posted: Jan. 17, 2015 - 1:27 PM ET #186

Quote Originally Posted by Fire_Control:

Interesting take on the pound. Would if be wise to use forex or

something like fxe to short the euro?

Not sure what you mean by "go against someone on the opposite of the trade".

Someone I know is long the Euro so I wont go to profit off that persons loss. There are so many possible plays out there I've never needed to go against a friend and their trade.

Speaking to what Knox was saying...in my history of trading my only losses came from stop loss slippage. One severe negative I have with the Forex is you cannot insure your position against margin or stop loss slippage. It really ticks me off and the few times I got zapped off this the trade would have worked properly, so my strategy wasnt flawed and I was able and willing to ride but with how fast the Forex moves if you are either too levered or not watching you can get smashed.

Even if I was short the CHF (which is a NO WAY was I ever going to play the peg..to me if you are playing the peg then if the peg fails you will get CRUSHED, and to me the price action on that trade was just not enticing...too crowded and no juice there) even if I was short that trade, I probably would have tried to ride it out...and you cannot ride it out of you are not able to quickly act and not get stopped out like that.

But as I said no way have I or would I ever play the dynamite peg trade.

Fire_Control

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Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 922

Posted: Jan. 17, 2015 - 2:56 PM ET #187

For the Swiss to do what they did makes me think draghi is going to do something big soon.

When did they go long euro? They must be stuck huge. Hopefully they can recover someday.

Knoxpoker

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Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 1244

Posted: Jan. 18, 2015 - 1:43 PM ET #188

Quote Originally Posted by Fire_Control:

Knox,

Thanks for taking the time to respond. You have made some good calls recently and seem to have a good understanding of the markets. Are you thinking we have a 2008 style crash soon?

I hate to use the word crash because it sounds like you are trying to set in panic, and people or should I say "sheep" think you are overreacting.. I know for a fact after seeing all the B.S theyI have seen over the weekend that they are infact going to pull the markets off highs and the new safe haven for "hot" money will be oil and gold..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-18/obama-tries-tax-cuts-on-rich-again-offset-by-new-breaks.html

here is a great example of a smoke screen.. This type of news says >> " We are going to help you !" But in reality he is going to let all the big boys get out of the market and let the 401k's of millions of people take about a 40 percent loss.. This is what told me that we are ready to go into a nice downward market .. This is what I call CONFIRMATION at its best....

think I am some crazy conspiracy theory nut?? Go right ahead and dont take action . I will be making money hand over fist..

I am not sure how I am going to play this just yet, but as of now I my trading plan is short USD pairs--- Most likely USD/CAD and am already in NUGT I most likely will be adding more to that position once i get another leg to the upside, or a very small pullback..

Fire-Control I want to say one more thing.. You can not come into the markets in a better time.. this is what all traders wait for .. A great opportunity to make some good money...

Fire_Control

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Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 922

Posted: Jan. 18, 2015 - 3:30 PM ET #189

Why the short on US/CAD? We are not in a good place up here right now. All commodities in the tank and they keep talking about raising rates. No way they can raise rates here. If they do it will be 0.5% at the most. A 1 or 2 % rise in rates would smash the economy further. Then they will realize it was a mistake.

Seems like most central banks are talking down there currency except for the US.

Knoxpoker

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 1244

Posted: Jan. 18, 2015 - 11:03 PM ET #190

Quote Originally Posted by Fire_Control:

Seems like most central banks are talking down there currency except for the US.

This is the thing.. the more you make the working class work, the more you can keep the scam going.. Where is the money coming from that "they" are stealing??? Our tax money, our hard earned money in the markets.. I dont mind that they want to try to steal mine, because I just steal it right back.. No big deal to me , I know the scam..

The yen is already getting stronger as a safe haven again as of tonight.. Next Oil and gold..

I will short any USD pair that looks soft, and right now it is looking as the Yen and the Cad are ready to go.. I had said the USD/CAD because it is the last of the pairs to start a down trend and it has a looooong way to go to bottom out .. I see over 2,300 pips for the taking ..

Knoxpoker

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Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 1244

Posted: Jan. 19, 2015 - 1:44 AM ET #191

2 trades 2 different pairs ..

The USD/YEN ready to go short @ the break of 117.056 ish.. Looking for signal at that level..

USD/CAD 119.872 ish looking for signal at that level..

lets see in the next 9 hours... GL

Knoxpoker

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Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 1244

Posted: Jan. 20, 2015 - 11:26 AM ET #192

dow is toast . oil is testing bottoms , and gold is gone!!!

here are 2 good ones..

UWTI, NUGT, they will fly. Nugt is already flying off the shelf.. greab UWTI before you have to pay a dollar more a week from now ..

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58424

Posted: Jan. 20, 2015 - 1:10 PM ET #193

You better hope the EU does a QE this week like the market is pricing or that levered NUGT is gonna get smacked down good.

This gold move is nothing but front running an anticipated QE move this week.

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