Posted:
#76
I love you
NCAA wk 13
Posted:
#78
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
THREAD SUMMARY
THREAD SUMMARY Picks
Texas Tech +1.5 (would play down to pick em)
I Love this play and will be at the game on Thursday you are spot on about this Tech team... I have close friends who play on the team and they say they are fired up about playing Texas .... Honestly Ive watched every game Tech has played all year I do not think Texas can keep up with the Red Raiders offense... Pat Mahomes is a beast!!! Wreck'em
Posted:
#80
Quote Originally Posted by usikbasterd:
mega...what about tulsa vs tulane! request hot line please!! and if u really got the time what about the east carolina vs cincy!! ..im leaning towards tulsa and cincy..thanks
mega...what about tulsa vs tulane! request hot line please!! and if u really got the time what about the east carolina vs cincy!! ..im leaning towards tulsa and cincy..thanks
If you actually take the time to read Megas first post in this entire thread you would know that he is looking at EVERY game this week. No need for requests, have a little patience and maybe take the time to read whats actually been posted.
Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by usikbasterd:
mega...what about tulsa vs tulane! request hot line please!!
and if u really got the time what about the east carolina vs cincy!! ..im leaning towards tulsa and cincy..thanks
mega...what about tulsa vs tulane! request hot line please!!
and if u really got the time what about the east carolina vs cincy!! ..im leaning towards tulsa and cincy..thanks Learn how to read and comprehend. Now go back and read the first post on this thread. Fricking lazy and illiterate people.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
Posted:
#83
TAMU 
Puffkit
Puffkit dish 
lionmonster BOL this wk
BOL this wkjules 
.....BOL bro !!!
.....BOL bro !!!Rapstallion thanks......Regarding the Texas Tech ML to all who asked - It is just a personal choice I decided to take the +1.5 b/c I got it cheap -106 and usually do that instead of ML. Mathematically you can make the long term case that ML at a certain price is a smarter play but I have had more than a few games the last number of years land on 1 when i had +1.5 so just go that way more often than not. GL !
thanks......Regarding the Texas Tech ML to all who asked - It is just a personal choice I decided to take the +1.5 b/c I got it cheap -106 and usually do that instead of ML. Mathematically you can make the long term case that ML at a certain price is a smarter play but I have had more than a few games the last number of years land on 1 when i had +1.5 so just go that way more often than not. GL !Nilshu - thanks GL !
worthbob .....seriously THANKS for posting - no offense taken at all always like to hear what others have to say...I will say 3 things understanding that Texas can absolutely rush for 300+ yds and win......1) Not a trend guy unless the players and coaches etc are mostly the same - To each their own - I make note of trends but it rarely impacts my decision making which is not to say that you cannot be a trend capper and do well. 2) Texas has a game at Baylor next. Assuming they need 6 wins for a crappy bowl - i put their chances of beating Baylor next wk at close to zero so to me they know their season is over while this is TT Super Bowl......3) when looking at the TT avg pts given up - all their beatings were against dynamic offenses....they are much better vs more vanilla teams defensively - still bad of course - but the teams that scored a billion points on TT were tcu okie st baylor and sooners. Texas not close to that. GL
.....seriously THANKS for posting - no offense taken at all always like to hear what others have to say...I will say 3 things understanding that Texas can absolutely rush for 300+ yds and win......1) Not a trend guy unless the players and coaches etc are mostly the same - To each their own - I make note of trends but it rarely impacts my decision making which is not to say that you cannot be a trend capper and do well. 2) Texas has a game at Baylor next. Assuming they need 6 wins for a crappy bowl - i put their chances of beating Baylor next wk at close to zero so to me they know their season is over while this is TT Super Bowl......3) when looking at the TT avg pts given up - all their beatings were against dynamic offenses....they are much better vs more vanilla teams defensively - still bad of course - but the teams that scored a billion points on TT were tcu okie st baylor and sooners. Texas not close to that. GL 
Posted:
#85
Urban cheers man ! thanks
cheers man ! thanksSCC - Let's make some paper this wk 
JayUCLA - not sure what i am gonna do about the UCLA game yet 
not sure what i am gonna do about the UCLA game yet win4ever
Degenerate thanks man !
thanks man ! area51 ....I will be there for Turkey Day - May bring along some of my Victoria's Secret entourage members might wanna get some extra chairs. Or they can sit on our laps.
....I will be there for Turkey Day - May bring along some of my Victoria's Secret entourage members might wanna get some extra chairs. Or they can sit on our laps.GoNoles lots of Red Stripe beer pal.....GL this wk
lots of Red Stripe beer pal.....GL this wkMadden - glad you like TT - keep up the awesome work
jdr - valid question - tried to answer it in my last post - Send me a PM if I made no sense !! GL
....Gonna wait and see what happens today GL !
Posted:
#88
Tien thx man - GL this wk !!
Friday MACtion
thx man - GL this wk !!Friday MACtion Akron 10.5 Kent (40)
Megalocks line 11
Sagarin 14 
Everybody is waiting for the Battle for the Wagon Wheel 
and frankly it just cannot come soon enough....Akron has only made one bowl game in their history ...a LOSS....so would love to make it 7 and guarantee themselves a chance to make school history with a bowl WIN.....They are playing well have won 3 in a row against teams maybe a sniff above Kent so in theory this should be a comfortable win BUT - we are talking about the TWO best defenses in the MAC from a yds per play perspective (Kent 1 Akron 2)....40 seems about right surely would not go over but you know our phobia to going under such low numbers....Akron can definitely do more on offense....ranked near the bottom of MAC - Kent THE bottom - but Akron still averages about 80Y per game more and over a yd per play more than Kent. FINAL NOTE - last yr Akron had 5 wins going into this game and need a win to get to 6 and bowl eligibility - guess who beat them ? KENT. Our MAC INSIDERS tell us that this fact is not lost on Akron and they should come out focused to administer a beatdown. Kent ? Season is toast - but being a very important rivalry game for both schools - it is always difficult to take a team laying DD if they do not have a very good offense.
and frankly it just cannot come soon enough....Akron has only made one bowl game in their history ...a LOSS....so would love to make it 7 and guarantee themselves a chance to make school history with a bowl WIN.....They are playing well have won 3 in a row against teams maybe a sniff above Kent so in theory this should be a comfortable win BUT - we are talking about the TWO best defenses in the MAC from a yds per play perspective (Kent 1 Akron 2)....40 seems about right surely would not go over but you know our phobia to going under such low numbers....Akron can definitely do more on offense....ranked near the bottom of MAC - Kent THE bottom - but Akron still averages about 80Y per game more and over a yd per play more than Kent. FINAL NOTE - last yr Akron had 5 wins going into this game and need a win to get to 6 and bowl eligibility - guess who beat them ? KENT. Our MAC INSIDERS tell us that this fact is not lost on Akron and they should come out focused to administer a beatdown. Kent ? Season is toast - but being a very important rivalry game for both schools - it is always difficult to take a team laying DD if they do not have a very good offense.Summary. No plays on this game.
mega
Posted:
#90
Mega, will the weather in Utah affect the UNLV/Wyo, BYU/Utah State and Colo/Utah games? Wondering if the kids from Vegas go up and freeze their collective rear ends off will they perform less affectively than they already have? As such, would the unders come into play on these games? Off the subject, going to battle with the Nevada Gaming Comm. because the W. Kent. game was ruled an unofficial game (called with 5:03) to go 3 SECONDS!!! However, I had the over which was achieved, and regardless of the time, the over should be paid. With 5 minutes to go either team could win, and under could become an on over, but there is NO way an over can become an under. Will keep you posted. Have a great holiday season.
Posted:
#91
MEGALOCKS presents...In conjunction with JOHN COCKTOASTIN ENTERPRISES.....Doing the Bette Middler 
As you guys know - from time to time we tell you about some of our degenerate plays so that home gamers can have some additional action - small potatoes - say 1/3 of a normal bet. This week we noted we were gonna try a Bette Middler on the Ball St game. Here is some background on what we try to do and how to manage the risk during the "trade".
on the Ball St game. Here is some background on what we try to do and how to manage the risk during the "trade".1. Do not talk about Fight Club. Oh wait. That is not it.
1. It is an "action" bet if you want to try to have some fun with a couple bucks. We just want to prove to you guys that we are human and not some kind of super-sophisticated handicapping and sex robot sent back through time with the ultimate patience. We do this often just to keep ourselves interested from time to time if we cannot justify a real bet on the game. Repeat - VERY important. It is just meant to be for action so if you are a $100 bettor for example - try $25 bucks.
2. You try and anticipate the line move. We have been right by our records about 75% of the time. But not 100%. The idea is to try and play around a key number. Or if you are doing totals - try to grab as many points as possible.
3. In the Ball St game tonight - we suggested a small potatoes shot at a Bette Middler by taking them +21.5 and waiting for a -20 since we think the line is way too high. Right now - looks like we are wrong. So the question is ...What are your options if you are in the "trade" with a Ball +21.5 ticket already ?
by taking them +21.5 and waiting for a -20 since we think the line is way too high. Right now - looks like we are wrong. So the question is ...What are your options if you are in the "trade" with a Ball +21.5 ticket already ?4. Once again - the key is that your bet should be a small % of a normal wager so you do not panic. Here are your options.....keeping in mind that when we go for a Bette Middler we always want to get OUT of it - and not hang on to our original position.
we always want to get OUT of it - and not hang on to our original position.a) juice out of it (for example - some books will let you go say BG -21.5 -130 or something) We never do that.
b) try to get out of it with an in-game wager or half-time wager. THIS is what we are gonna try and do tonight if the line keeps flying up. Assuming we were dead wrong and it closes at say -23. We will wait in game to see if we can at any point get a middle during the game should Ball St score early or keep it close early. You can try the same thing at halftime. DO NOT expose yourself to losing both bets - the REVERSE MIDDLE. (for ex: Ball +21.5 BG -23.5...it lands on 23 you lose both)
c) let it ride and be a man. Sadly if BG gets off to a hot start you may not have any choice but to stick with it and hope for a cover. Again - if it was just a small potatoes wager - you will get over it.We promise.
Summary. The entire idea is to try and win both wagers or win one and push on one wager. We do this quite a bit - more success with totals - and it adds a bit of "action" while not risking too much cash.
PM me if you have any Q. GL ! mega
Posted:
#92
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
MEGALOCKS presents...In conjunction with JOHN COCKTOASTIN ENTERPRISES.....
MEGALOCKS presents...In conjunction with JOHN COCKTOASTIN ENTERPRISES.....Doing the Bette Middler
As you guys know - from time to time we tell you about some of our degenerate plays so that home gamers can have some additional action - small potatoes - say 1/3 of a normal bet. This week we noted we were gonna try a Bette Middler on the Ball St game. Here is some background on what we try to do and how to manage the risk during the "trade".
on the Ball St game. Here is some background on what we try to do and how to manage the risk during the "trade".1. Do not talk about Fight Club. Oh wait. That is not it.
1. It is an "action" bet if you want to try to have some fun with a couple bucks. We just want to prove to you guys that we are human and not some kind of super-sophisticated handicapping and sex robot sent back through time with the ultimate patience. We do this often just to keep ourselves interested from time to time if we cannot justify a real bet on the game. Repeat - VERY important. It is just meant to be for action so if you are a $100 bettor for example - try $25 bucks.
2. You try and anticipate the line move. We have been right by our records about 75% of the time. But not 100%. The idea is to try and play around a key number. Or if you are doing totals - try to grab as many points as possible.
3. In the Ball St game tonight - we suggested a small potatoes shot at a Bette Middler by taking them +21.5 and waiting for a -20 since we think the line is way too high. Right now - looks like we are wrong. So the question is ...What are your options if you are in the "trade" with a Ball +21.5 ticket already ?
by taking them +21.5 and waiting for a -20 since we think the line is way too high. Right now - looks like we are wrong. So the question is ...What are your options if you are in the "trade" with a Ball +21.5 ticket already ?4. Once again - the key is that your bet should be a small % of a normal wager so you do not panic. Here are your options.....keeping in mind that when we go for a Bette Middler we always want to get OUT of it - and not hang on to our original position.
we always want to get OUT of it - and not hang on to our original position.a) juice out of it (for example - some books will let you go say BG -21.5 -130 or something) We never do that.
b) try to get out of it with an in-game wager or half-time wager. THIS is what we are gonna try and do tonight if the line keeps flying up. Assuming we were dead wrong and it closes at say -23. We will wait in game to see if we can at any point get a middle during the game should Ball St score early or keep it close early. You can try the same thing at halftime. DO NOT expose yourself to losing both bets - the REVERSE MIDDLE. (for ex: Ball +21.5 BG -23.5...it lands on 23 you lose both)
c) let it ride and be a man. Sadly if BG gets off to a hot start you may not have any choice but to stick with it and hope for a cover. Again - if it was just a small potatoes wager - you will get over it.We promise.
Summary. The entire idea is to try and win both wagers or win one and push on one wager. We do this quite a bit - more success with totals - and it adds a bit of "action" while not risking too much cash.
PM me if you have any Q. GL ! mega
My local is giving me +23 on ball st!
Posted:
#93
Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:
Dude he clearly analyzes and talks about why he likes tech in his write up. Yes we all know their defense is nonexistent, if it was any good the line would be tech -14, it isn't but he clearly explains that Texas will be without their best rb, and their second best running back is also dinged. If you don't like the pick that's fine but saying "I don't get it" two times in a row when he gives a thorough detailed write up of WHY HE LIKEs it is just ignorant.
Dude he clearly analyzes and talks about why he likes tech in his write up. Yes we all know their defense is nonexistent, if it was any good the line would be tech -14, it isn't but he clearly explains that Texas will be without their best rb, and their second best running back is also dinged. If you don't like the pick that's fine but saying "I don't get it" two times in a row when he gives a thorough detailed write up of WHY HE LIKEs it is just ignorant.
.... wait... I don't get it....
Posted:
#97
Friday MACtion Toledo 8 W Michigan (61)
Megalocks line 7
Sagarin 9.5
Interesting game when you look at it from different perspectives. From a matchup standpoint - both teams have very balanced offenses - WM a more efficient passing team. Toledo is going to have more success running against the soft underbelly of the WM D - and probably do a better job stopping the run since they have one of the best run Ds in the MAC which helps explain why they are #2 in the NCAA in red zone D. So given that a TD seems right. Anything over that makes you wonder about taking WM.....HOWEVER - WM is out of the MAC Title game hunt - technically they can still get a share of the West crown but would lose the tiebreaker. After losing to BG and NIU how much more can they have in the tank ?? our MAC INSIDERS tell us that WM was quite devastated after the NIU game. and Toledo ? They are still wondering how the huskies got the best of them again.
FWIW. WM has only won 2L13 at toledo. Weather should be cold with some rain. moderate wind.
Summary. Think we are gonna pass on this one. Keep an eye on what happens tuesday. If NIU wins and clinches the trip to MAC toledo may not be 100% into it either. We think NIU wins and this line closes at 7. Just a guess.
mega
Posted:
#98
Tien. Given that i was probably wrong about the line move i would do nothing. I think the line is way too high meaningless game for BG but it doesnt matter what i think ! thought it would close 20-21. Save your money pal ! GL
dewey no problem
no problembama - nice work
gogirl - best wishes to you for the holiday
Posted:
#100
Quote Originally Posted by soxfann1:
Just for a little action I teased N I'll -7 with TexTech +7.5 seems like a pretty safe wager if you are correct about TT BOL
Just for a little action I teased N I'll -7 with TexTech +7.5 seems like a pretty safe wager if you are correct about TT BOL
i think that will work ! GL man
FRIDAY Big 12Baylor OFF TCU
Very easy game for us to pass on. Power ratings are meaningless given the QB situation for both teams. We do see a Baylor -1.5 out there. No total yet. Not sure how anyone could play this game - especially right now - but we do not know enough about either teams' backup QB situation and how either team might perform in this one.
Summary. Nope.
mega
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