NCAA wk 13

We are fresh and ready to go off the Jamaica BYE WEEK .....Ya mon.  Going to attempt to continue the streak of winning weeks from 11/11 to 12/12 but it is going to be tough.....Even tougher than that - as we PROMISED in our thread last week - this week MEGALOCKS is attempting something so BOLD  so SUCCULENT  and so impossibly possible  that it defies logic.

This week we are going to attempt to analyze every game for Covers Nation and do a write-up for all games no matter how filthy and disgusting and pointless the game may be. 

Here is the order that we plan on going with 

1. Weekday games

2. SEC

3. Big 10

4. Big 12

5. ACC

6. P12 

6. AAC

7. MACtion

8. MW

9. CUSA

10. FUNbelt

This will give you an idea of when to expect the write-up. It goes without saying that we will post write-ups for PICKS as soon as we identify a game we feel is worth taking a shot at.

THANKS to all who wished us well on our time off and left us messages in the week 12 thread and on Tw. We really appreciate it and hope to do a great job this week.

Speaking of the wk 12 thread - was off the grid and not keeping up so will read it this am - but not respond in there - will just let it die so that we can keep the week 13 stuff on the first page.

Best of luck to all. MEGA

(ya mon )

The "I go on vacation during a hot streak guy"

Never leave me alone with these savages again.

Megalocks line 17

Sagarin 20

This line surprised us just a little bit - if only because as we noted last week with B Green - they have the trip to the MAC Champ game sewn up - so while of course they are going to "try" to win every game - sometimes just a little less focus and urgency can mean the difference between winning and losing. We will also note that last year this same scenario existed - BG with the East sewn up and playing Ball....Ball won outright as a 10 point underdog. Not saying just saying.

So given the situation there is no way we would play BG to cover more than 3 TD.....The question is should be take a look at Ball St? Well dedicated subscribers know that we hate hate betting on teams with horrible Ds and that is exactly what Ball St has right now - although MEGALOCKS FUN FACT ......Our MAC INSIDERS tell us that Ball St is playing with over 50 freshman and sophomores this year and should be a LOT better on D next yr....but nonetheless - this is a bad D right now 12th in the MAC in D - 513 YPG given up and 12th in Yds per play D at 6.65 while BG is #1 in the MAC in YP play offense and total offense/game. So while we do see some perceived value in the line - BG is going to score a lot of points and if they get into the high 40s will Ball be able to score enough to cover ? Margin seems pretty generous....as bad as their D is they do have a decent QB and the ability to actually look like a football team on offense unlike MAC teams like Kent. 

Final thought. Ball has played ok at home. Lost to CMich by 2. To Toledo by 14. Beat UMass. This line just seems too high to us but cannot trust a defense that has given up 711 and 607 yds  the last 2 weeks as they go with some younger guys.

FWIW - weather looks great for Tuesday.

Summary. Lean Ball St 21 or higher. Will not make the official play list but could support a small potatoes degenerate action play on Ball St. We think we might play +21.5 and go for a BETTE MIDDDDLER  think this line has a much higher probability of going down a bit than up. -19.5 or -20 combined with +21.5 might be fun.

mega

CLASSIC !

good to see ya back bro !

I'll keep it short: A&M (Brown Schwag) @ LSU (Purple Kush).

better. 

Megalocks line 13

Sagarin 13

One of those rare games where the spread / Sagarin / MEGA-ratings line up..........You have two of the hottest teams in the MAC going head to head.....Now obviously NIU on a different level and they win - and they go to their 6th straight conf title game ....What a bunch of warriors / backup QB and all.....MEGALOCKS FACTOIDS........Our MAC INSIDERS did some research and found that the Huskies have not lost a NOV game since freaking 2009 ....pretty impressive - in fact - if you go back to 2009 when they lost to Toledo - since then - in conference - TAKE A SNIFF OF THIS.....The Huskies regular season in conference since that 2009 loss are 1-1 vs ohio ....3-4 vs the Chips and 43-0 against the rest of the MAC !!  WOW....Soooooo??? Well NIU is rolling right now even with the backup QB and believe they will find a way to win this one while Ohio as better as they have been playing - tend to have more trouble against the big boys of the MAC.

What we like about Ohio is the fact that as we noted last wk - their run game seems to be getting better and better....last 3 games have rushed for 299 333 332 and while NIU D is decent against the run you can move the ball on them with a decent attack and ohio OL pretty good....Sprague probably starting instead of Vick this week he looked good last wk....Ohio D still very banged up and they need to keep the ball and run clock to make sure the D stays rested.

What kept us off this game is while we think Ohio can slug it out and stay competitve - 1) there is not much perceived line value and 2) the in-depth look at the stats showed some clear adv for NIU - they are #1 in MAC in opp QB passer rating and lead the MAC with 18 INT - they are also #3 in yds per play D while Ohio is #10.....NIU #1 rush attack in MAC vs Ohio #11 in yds/carry D.

Summary. Do not think we are going to touch this one. Will wait to see what the total looks like. Ohio probably scrappy enough to keep it within 2 TD but some of the underlying stats scare us too much.

mega

Cams 

head dx - thanks ! 

SST - let's have a good week bro 

UGA - thx GL !

seaoforange 

combo 

BYU , Dish , Degen , LVT 

Bridge 

Winners - thx GL !

Teamzero 

Train - worth another 

gogirl .....Let's try and find some winners this wk - Really love your takes on the MW you seem to know those teams very well ! keep sharing with the forum