NCAA wk 13

Love the threads Mega. Really wish I would've found your plays earlier. I quit coming here for a long time because of all the idiots that just bitched about some good cappers having a losing week instead of doing their own work. Anyway, enough of that. Like I was saying, too bad I didnt come back earlier, I use the best math model I've ever come across to determine if I will play or lay off a game and I back tracked your plays against it this season. Since Week 5 (which is when the data from last season is finally discarded) when the model agrees with your picks it is a whopping 19-1! Nothing is guaranteed, but the model agrees with TT this week. GLA

Megalocks line - Texas Tech -1

Sagarin - Texas Tech - 2.5

Well long time followers know that it is a once in a lifetime experience to have us recommend Washington St - yet they delivered a 52045820394 star winner vs UCLA.....Now the only question is - are we pushing our luck with another one of our nemesis teams - Texas Tech ????

We absolutely do not like playing teams with horrible defenses. That is a fact. So this may be a pick that you may want to pass over. Totally get it. The thing is - We do not think that Texas has a defense either - yes - better - but really how much better ? Well for starters - against the pass - Texas is #6 in the B12 in opponent passer rating and Texas Tech is just percentage points behind at #7. Pretty much neither team's defense has been able to stop any QB worth a penny or two. Texas Tech D is horrid - make no mistake - BUT - anyone that gives up 63+ points three times in 11 games is doing something wrong - but they are facing a very very vanilla offense which we think they can handle. Now - the one thing in Texas Tech favor is the cluster of injuries that Texas is facing....as you know we like to look at the entire picture not just one guy....Let's take a look at their top 4 rushers....#1 Foreman - over 7 yds a pop and their best looking back - just had finger surgery - out; #2 a QB....#3 Gray - just 4 yds a pop - bad toe - doubtful we read no go today online who knows - cannot be good #4 - a QB....NOBODY else has more than 100Y on the season. And they are missing starting guard Vahe who had been playing well. And we know they are not going to move it a lot through the air. So we see the Texas offense again - as something Texas Tech can handle. Texas Tech on offense ? Have only played 2 games since Halloween - Played a decent game at WV covered and only lost by 5 - what we liked was 42 rushes and 36 passes nice and balanced and WV is a tough out....Then they destroyed Kansas St at home - again nice balance 40 runs 43 passes....overall what gets missed is that they are #34 rushing and #3 passing.....not to mention #1 converting 3rd downs.....I can't sugar coat it - their D is horrible - just think that they can win this SU despite the D. Texas has a nice win over the Sooners. Texas Tech has a nice win over Arkansas and nothing else. Neither team has more than one win to be proud of. Texas in particular has beat Rice Kansas and Kansas St in addition to the Sooners. The same K St team TT destroyed. Tex Tech beat S Houston UTEP Iowa St Kansas and K St. 

We have to get an intangible working for us. This is just an opinion. But we feel that despite what we read - this is a MUCH bigger game for Texas Tech. Have to believe that. They have not won at Texas since 1997. Texas has owned them lately. Thing is - this Texas team is bad bad bad....Last year as we have noted we played them on several occasions and did well because we could rely on their D - this yr - do not think that will be the case. They are just not that good in any facet of the game and Texas Tech has to be smelling blood. I understand it is a rivalry and Texas wants to win - but for real like for real - Texas would need to win this and then beat Baylor to get to 6 wins and bowl eligibility (could get in with 5 - longshot) - point is - their season is OVER - coach is on the hot seat - looks like they are going to have success again on the recruiting front - think everyone wants to put this season behind them. We like it when Texas is good. Just think this might be the time they get beat by TT.

FWIW - we have TT as the fav in this one. So does Sagarin.

GL mega

Picks

Texas Tech +1.5  (would play down to pick em)

Write-Ups appear in this order

Tuesday - BG / Ball St (post 6) ....NIU / Ohio (23)

Thursday - UCF / S Florida (36) ....Texas / Tex Tech (53)

UP NEXT - Friday games 

Indy thanks - GL buddy !

SCC ......Hope to have a good week bro !

Maine 

Wahoo - Happy Turkey Week man !! GL this wk - See ya around i'm sure 

lpokeru 

Bison  good to see ya - GL this wk

soxfann 

BWS  thanks man GL - LOVE the Steelhammer find !

rollonotes 

tonesparkz 

Dilemma 

fuzzy  

blowout 

billyh 

joe - will get to Vandy on Wed 

urban -  GL this wk pal !

Neil - good intel  

gman 

abpilgrim - sure i can do that - just make it a manageable list and keep in mind i find more than 50% of the games at least complete coin tosses ATS !! GL 

buckeye  thanks man ! - Totally love that my pick agrees with your math - I have some guys in my posse that use math models and always feel good when we agree. GL !

I'll take "they have swag with KK" guy, over "they have core values with CS" guy 

One question. Why not just take the Texas Tech ML at the small plus number? Why pay juice for a lousy point and a half!? You said yourself you would play down to pick em. So why not just take the ML at +105??

Also, in defense of worthbob, Texas has been very competitive at home this year and Tech's defense does suck!

Like Tech, have all year.  Bevo and Company have been missing a chromesone since mid 2000s.  Tech in a romp, Red Raiders 43, Hook'm 31.  

Guns Up