L2T Week 8

Hey, Yanasaur, they are one team I have not watched so your intel is appreciated. Unfortunately, I went on them because I expect them to dig in at home and have 2 losses which fits in with a pattern I am seeing over the past 2 yrs with teams with 2 losses ....they tend to dig in for week 8 games and afterward but especially, in Week 8. Cincy was one of about 5 I am eyeing for Part 2 of my MidSeason Week 8 betting thesis. Since I am trying to snag a few more lines, I will will not reveal yet but probably will tomorow or on Thursday

JP, thanks 

I am going in pretty deep this week after a losing week last week and then might scale back starting next week with NCAAB starting up soon but I have really good pattern betting stats for its start. Its just the time of the year that we are in with NCAAF and last week kind of kicked a lot of people

@Last2thirst  Thanks. Ofc I wish you luck on the bet but will be ofc hoping LSU pulls it out.

I'm tailing your under, I like the 2 loss angle a lot.  I went back and looked to see when it applies to ranked teams under the theory that it will be even more intense if they have real playoff aspirations unlike a lesser team that probably knows they're out regardless, and unfortunately it only turned up 2 games and neither had an O/U above 46.  But they were 2-0 to the Under--#24 Michigan in '24 O/U 43.5, total 28 and #21 Texas in '25 O/U 45.5 total 29) but they did go 2-0 to the Under.

Another thing I didn't mention is that Leavitt re-aggravated his hamstring in practice last week and is limited in his ability to run.  that hasn't been the end of the world as in the games w/ the bad hammy he's stayed in the pocked and been very accurate, but if he needs to run may not be easy.  

I'm on the Under and have been tempted on the side but haven't pulled the trigger.  My main hesitation is that the media has been pounding the story about how LSU hasn't won a road SEC game since 2024 and I think it may provide some motivation and extra focus, I think they are sick of hearing it and want to make a statement.  Also, you do have the better coach, QB and frontline talent level with LSU but I think that's in the number here.  The egg AU laid at home as a small dog against UF earlier this season may be giving people some pause here.

G-Tiger, honestly, you cannot BUY that intel you are shovelling .....beautiful contribuitions

Cappro clink me some luck will ya haha 

As long as I can get movement on 2 of 3 lines I am eyeing ....that would lead me to make a move OR ....give up if they go the other way, I will release the even more killer WEEK 8 trend that I have spotted and give you the numbers on 

Stay tuned for PART 2 of MidSeason Week 8 Power 4 Conference Trends tomorrow night or Thursday night 

The numbers have me a little gobsmacked but my hunch is, VEGAS knows what's up on the plays that I am probably eyeing and have already moved 3 lines away from me.....there were 6 - 10 potential plays and I narrowed it down to 3 - 6 and sort of moved on some already by looking at the matchup ...so I took either a side or a total

@Last2thirst

Great analysis as always!!!

That Indy Ohio state Under last week was so nice!!!

BOL this week buddy!!!

Thanks Felix ....after this weekend, i get some prep ready for the week after and NCAAB season usually starting or the Monday after,

I have 2 seasons of data in married together for every combo of rank at any time ....big advantage in some situations but you have to spend time with the data and creating an idea of intangibles with each team which also helps but with NCAAB, there are 355 teams to track 

Yes, I do it every year because its fun but requires lots of time 

here is to a good week 

 I am glad to see you on Michigan under. Makes me have more confidence in it. I am glad you post, alot of good info. Good luck L2T.

Thanks Leroy .... I appreciate you stopping in and we are on the same page