When a SIDE is not compelling enough..... or is weird as a number, starting looking for a reason to take a TOTAL SIDE which I did!
I took the UNDER in this game at 46 and its dropping
I am about to reveal my MIDSEASON TREND discovery.... and it will have 2 parts. The first will focus on TOTALS ....the second part will come once I can secure some more SIDES using this trend (will reveal later this week - probably midweek)
OK...here it is: MID -SEASON WEEK 8 TREND DISCOVERY (Part 1 + Part 2)
PART 1: TOTALS
i think everyone knows by now, I bet horses....standardbreds to be specific, as I grew up around drivers and young horse farms with classmates in high school. They gave me 'the hook'. I took advantage of it, paid attention and learned so that I could play horses roughly 1-2 x per week for most weeks of the year and now for roughly 36 yrs consistently. I hung around good cappers. First thing I noticed, they put in the work. Second thing I noticed, they were constantly willing to shift strategies from what was working to other observations or patterns that they knew work with season, weather, horse race field variety switches, etc...
i have played two nights in a row this week making +$125 on Saturday and +$48 last night. That is the key, bank balance maintenance until you hit a strong one pay HUNDREDS/THOUSANDS. I play with a $100 cap on my betting per session but generally can get what I hope or want to accomplish using $50-80 most times. I am playing tonight which breaks my rule of not playing 3 sessions in a row BUT its because I like the conditions and the card, so I will likely switch up my style of betting but of course, when I get down to it this afternoon, the capping over 2-3 hours will dictate what I do.
if you follow my thread for a while now, I have been using SP+ variances for the past 6-7 weeks with really strong success in the latter 3-4 weeks. In Week 7, it meant NOTHING!! Sometimes you can put in the work, but if you don't shift strategy or look for something else and DON'T PUT IN THE TIME...and just guess, you are coinflipping and so its not a winning formula.
So I put in the work finding out why my TOTALS last week got beat up. Is there something going on mid-season that could explain the UNDERS going all OVER..... and by this search, I think I have uncovered something that only applies to WEEK 8 in the past 3 seasons ....but not in WEEK 9 or in WEEK 10 very well except in one specific instance.
>to lay this out, I will elaborate in 2 posts
-teams with 2 losses was my focus for this study (one side had to have 2 losses) > the reason being, in the past 2 seasons, NOT one team has made the NCAAF PLAYOFFS with 3 losses and this is what most teams aspire to in the POWER 4 CONFERENCES so when a team falls to 2 losses, I am noticing something in their scores starting at WEEK 8 and it applies still with strong trending in Week 9 or 10, but not as good as Week 8 in all 3 seasons for some reason
See post above for pre-ample of TREND (Part 1) that I have discovered for WEEK 8 specifically comparing the past couple of seasons....
Thesis#1 - Part 1 MIDSEASON TREND
TEAMS with 2 LOSSES tend to go UNDER 46 as a final Total result much more often than not, no matter what the Total was set for the game, if they are a team from one of the Power 4 Conferences!
2024 > 4 out of 10 in Week 8 went UNDER 41 / 7 out of 10 went UNDER 46
2025 > 11 out of 15 games went UNDER their total > 9 out of 15 went UNDER 46
--------------------------------------------------------------
***this week 2026 > 26x P4/P6 matchups with one opponent having 2 losses
>> ***only 3 of 26 P4-P6 games are set at a TOTAL of 45.5 or lower so I think this pattern can be exploited!
NOTE: - this observation does not work with matchups that are purely P6 Conference teams!!
1 - 8 UNDERS hit with final score totals of 46 or less but 2024 was about 50 / 50
*** went 1 - 0 last week on P4 Total and 0 - 2 on my P6 Total plays ....ha!!
MY PLAN: - since I already have 7 plays booked of which > 4 UNDERS included and made before I discovered this specifically and compared to other years, I will post a group of other plays besides the 3 P4 UNDERS i already have that I believe can be wheeled together in groups of 3 on parlays with something else to make a nice 4 way parlay to test the thesis at $5 a pop ....and will also do some plays where I wheel 2 UNDERS with one of the OVER since not everyone of the P4 totals will actually go UNDER
In Part 2 - I will layout something else I have uncovered about WEEK 8 over the past couple of years but it relates to SIDES only and will do so once I get the lines I hope to get after a few days of spread movement
Hey bro, nice to hear but wrong thread hehe 
Fall golf is the best and especially here in Ontario with all the colours ...but northern U.S. the same I'm sure
Too bad I am done playing due to shoulder issues from my playing days + arthritis
Right near downtown Toronto by the lake ..... I played lots of hockey too ...from a small town ...baseball, hockey, lacrosse and every high school sport. We were good enough in midget to be given an invitation to Silver Stick tourney for a couple of years. I know Ontario very well and some sites in Quebec for travel in sport or my wife competitions as well.
Beautiful 65F+ today and bright sunshine with the colours...amazing
You can dangle then 
....I was a goalie at 6'4 which was Ron Hextall like and yes I went into the corners to goon it up haha
I lived with Ryan Sittler (Darryl's brother) and Marty McSorley's brother through part of university as we had an athlete's house of 9 guys....crazy times as I was recruited to play football but didn't like the weight regimen they wanted to add to me (quit to play other varsity sport) as I was still heavily involved in club training in another sport.
When we played a real rough team, they put me on defense. I also played lacrosse in Fergus at 16 yrs old and Junior B with older guys only to be used to hit people and fight haha....damn I miss those days...and I was terrible in that sport but loved the rough stuff. There is guy that owns a bar on Lakeshore in Toronto here recognized me as soon as I walked through his door the first time.... he was younger and watched our Jr.B games and played for them years after haha. I get free beer when I want to but don't drink anymore and just go there to drop horse bets like tonight.
Ok, as per my thesis and results the past 2 seasons in WEEK 8 showing consistently P4 Conference matchups going UNDER at a rate higher than 60% and this week, only 3 out of 26 matches this week involving at least one team with 2 LOSSES .....has a TOTAL Line set UNDER 46 ....so I am going to take advantage with tripling these up to get every matchup combo at $5 per with probably one soccer play or one NCAAF ML play....for me its all about getting the right mix of selections and I have identified 13-14 matchups that I will narrow down with this BUNDLE:
Pitt/Mia Under 50.5
Baylor/Kansas Under 53.5
TexAM/Alabama Under 50.5
Oklahoma/Miss St Under 44.5
KState/Ariz St Under 56.5
Col/Okie St Under 55.5
VTech/Clemson Under 49.5
USC/Wisconsin Under 49.5
52 COMBOS @ 5 way with 2 other picks that I am considering to boost
-but, I will also do Overs wheels on every play that has at least one of those on the ticket ...but no plays with 2 of them which boosts my chances to hit more tickets with another 15 combos
I am now considering which two pieces to attach on every ticket:
NCAAF considerations > Oklahoma 1.54, Arizona 1.29, New Mexico 1.50
Soccer considerations > Sporting 1.22 UCL, Real Madrid 1.25 UCL, Palmeiras Under 2.5 Copa Lib 1.66 << Wed night** (leaning to go with this one because they are up 2 - 1 in their series and could tie 1-1 and win the Cup and they are a better team than Fluminese AND Palmerias has only allowed 10 goals in 15 games at home and with Arizona and just play the 15 combos of 2 UNDERS + an OVER )
5 way plays will pay about 14.5x $5 wagered > hit two wins and I am am $70 profit, 3 wins = $145 and so on....
Play #8 - Duke ML +105 x HALF U
-Nate Sheppard the star bulldozer RB is expected to play and he helps Duke to provide balance to a good attack
-Duke has a defense, Virginia is spotty
- Virginia has up to 25 players on the injury list according to one report
Like your Under on LSU game but would echo some of what Wahoo says about LSU. MSU actually did some damage against our D despite starting a former walk on QB and missing their stud RB Bothwell, just didn't see it on the scoreboard as they were trailing and had to go for it, going 0-4 on 4th down. That QB is not a runner and he had 55 on the ground and they ran for 4.0 ypc overall w/o Bothwell.
LSU's a very thin team playing its 8th straight week. Also, haven't seen the status of him yet but our best defensive player DE Prince left the game with a concussion Saturday, if he doesn't play we lose by far our best pass rusher, and the backup is a serious downgrade. Already missing best LB.
The lack of depth and fatigue could help your under on the offensive side (fwiw best receiver left game in 2nd half w/ankle), but be wary of the defense. Going into the season the DC Baker's defense had really struggled with running QBs. They did shut down Marcel Reed this year but he torched us last year and the year before for 5 total TD's. Last year ex-sacks Reed went for 108, Ark's Green 101, Pavia 94, Trinidad 71, Houston's Weigman 56 and UF's Lagway 6.1 ypc. Ole Miss under the new OC this year is not running Chambliss as much as Kiffin did and they didn't need to run him with all the success they had throwing, so Reed was the only running QB threat they faced YTD, and given how bad the A&M OL is I don't know what can be read into that. So they really haven't been tested this year by a running QB and that's my biggest defensive concern.
Also, fwiw I don't think it's a letdown spot for AU the way many are suggesting. Yes, the UGA win was flukey and misleading and they've struggled against SEC competition before Saturday, but they're underdogs at home to a ranked team, not big favorites, and fresh off a bye week before UGA so well rested. There's also a lot of series history here, it's probably AU's 3rd biggest rivalry in the SEC after UGA and Bama. This will not be a flat spot for them. That all should work in your favor on the Under I'd think.
Fwiw, series history favors the home team, home team is 20-4 SU and 16-7-1 ATS but didn't play last 2 years.
Comments to follow...
What a great writeup Geauxtigers!! 
Thank you.
You have just convinced me where I am going with Auburn + pts as I was angling for it last night hoping it would stay in the morning and got an update on injuries today but I see its now +7.5 so better move on it.
Last year, when LSU played a middle to upper team (5th - 7th best) in the SEC, the totals were not as high and so I may have read this game as a clock burner with LSU's defense but NOW, I see Auburn is probably going to have a strategy of keeping LSU's defense on the field and moving them around a lot using both sides of the field, up the middle at times and Byrum's legs.
LSU is down to 2 losses.... which is a slippery slope and Auburn's best chance is to keep the score down and keep the LSU defense on the field. I don't see Leavitt moving the ball down the field as quickly as Chambliss used to for Kiffin but he can if the game plan is set to trade scores with a top level SEC team like they showed last year in order to stay in the PLAYOFF race ....this game means something for LSU because of Auburn's elevated status with the gauntlet win over the #1 team so style points beating Auburn do not matter here....getting through the game does with a win with 3 tough matches in a row afterward on their card. I actually think I errored in not recognizing the best angle here when looking at this game was +8.5/+9 at one point.
Play #9 - Auburn +7.5 x HALF U ...and I might take some ML parlays with Auburn win!
I absolutely appreciate the fantastic writeup that spurred me to thinking this could be a tough game for LSU. Wahoo deserves credit as well but nice to see a newer poster doing it also. 
@Last2thirst
Saw you posted Cincy +10.5 as well. I was on them last week at WVU and they snatched defeat from the jaws on victory. I was able to watch some of that game and unfortunately Cincy just does not believe in playing defense at all. I saw defenders standing around, not trying to tackle, just horrendous lack of effort everywhere. The spot says Cincy but I cant go there after seeing that. Interested to see your thoughts on it
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