L2T Week 8

I could smell a bad week coming but you have to push what you do regardless! Nothing ventured, nothing gained and that is exactly what happened ... the gain part that is 

2 - 5 ATS/Totals  (-3.5U) << mostly on biggie NM play who lost by 11 because they slept through 1st half with 0 pts ffs!

-short term picture still good = 17 - 7 over 3 weeks

-not one UNDER converted last week so guess what?

PLAY #1 - LSU - Auburn UNDER 51.5 x 1U < if this goes up will grab 1 more U at 52.5

-two bull defenses (more LSU than Auburn) but more importantly:

> both have 2 losses and the loser is out of PLAYOFF mix 

> LSU's defense stifles running QBs ...Chambliss only got 2 yds on them and they manhandled the most dangerous running QB at TexasAM holding that team to a dominant 35 - 6 win ...since allowing 368 yds to Chambliss, the secondary has been mostly lockdown defense and Brown will not do to Georgia 2 games in a row with the film of what he did still fresh. GL!!

> look for a statement win by LSU but not on the offensive side especially with 3 tough games in a row > Bama/Texas/Vols

TEAMS IN PLAYOFF POSITION AFTER TODAY (Likely Seeding): 

 **darkened = undefeated

1. Miami

2. Ohio St

3. Georgia

4. BYU

---------------------------------------------

5. Texas Tech

6. Utah

7. UCLA

8. Indiana

9. Ole Miss

10. Tennessee

11. Kentucky

12. James Madison - will end up undefeated P6 likely

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Best of the rest - Knocking on the Door

1. Houston

2. Iowa

3. USC

4. Alabama (best 2 loss team)

5. Wake Forest

6. SMU

7. NW

8. Arizona 

9. LSU (2nd best 2 loss team)

10. Missouri (3rd best 2 loss team) 

11. Florida (4th best 2 loss team)              

12. Texas  (5th best 2 loss team)

13. Auburn (6th best 2 loss team) 

14. Oregon (7th best 2 loss team)

15. Boise - 1 loss P6 team       

16. New Mexico - 1 loss P6 team 

17. N. Dakota St - 1 loss P6 team             

18. Air Force  - 1 loss P6 team

19. Liberty - 1 loss P6 team

20. UTSA - 1 loss P6 team  

Next wave of impression (3 losses are out of playoff picture) > Nebraska, Okla St, Michigan, Wisconsin, UNC, Miss St, Oregon St, Clemson, Baylor, Duke, VTech, Kansas St, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Texas AM, Louisville, Washington, Pitt, Cincy, Army, Memphis, North Texas, WMU, Ohio

@Last2thirst

Did you intentionally leave Notre Dame off your playoff / contender lists?  

Assuming this was an oversight.   

Good stuff L2T

AS

YES!! Total oversight!

Thanks. I would slot them behind ahead or behind Indiana

Thank you 

TEAMS IN PLAYOFF POSITION AFTER WEEK 7 (Likely Seeding): 

 **darkened = undefeated

1. Miami

2. Ohio St

3. Georgia

4. BYU 

---------------------------------------------

5. Texas Tech

6. Utah

7. UCLA

8. Notre Dame

9.  Indiana

10. Ole Miss

11. Tennessee

12. Kentucky

------------------------------------------------------------

Best of the rest - Knocking on the Door

***James Madison - will end up undefeated P6 likely

1. Houston

2. Iowa 

3. USC

4. Alabama  **best 2 loss team**

Thirst 

the man, the myth, the legend 

regardless of results, your thread is great & I enjoy reading it, I’m glad you continue to post, our forum needs info

let me look at weather for your total & I’ll get back but I do have an initial concern I’ll share momentarily 

Play #2 - James Madison -App St Under 57.5 X 1U

-App St has some good numbers on defense except for sack record ....so I expect JMAD to play an efficient game being methodical up the field but encounter resistance leading to long drives....pressure is ratcheting up on their record no doubt so coming out of this game healthy is important as they play Troy next week 

-App St has a good QB but he is limited moving around due to a nagging injury and he faces the #15th best NCAAF team for sacks so I see them too moving the ball but not necessarily scoring a lot of TDs to match JMAD ....many of their home games are UNDER this number

-

Thanks 

Total is climbing  ...want to hear what you say and then I might put the brakes on....always appreciate it.

Concerning SIDES this week, I have found a gem of a trend that I will reveal once I let the lines brew a little and make a play here and there.....it could also relate to the TOTAL as well so that is the reasoning behind my first play somewhat. 

The research on this is self discovered ...and applies to Week 8 specifically, and likely onward after 

I bet LSu this past week so watched every play of that miss st game, when lsu got hit with pace the msu backup QB had success running the ball, think state ran for around 180 yards if you factor out the sacks, lsu is banged up defensively & they have no depth

the spot itself says LSu but I see a tired injured team playing with a Qb that must throw it now vs running it 

auburn only wants to hit you with pace, their offense has sputtered vs sec teams & for most of the year but I don’t like what I saw from LSu defense, state just couldn’t score in redzone with new Qb in that environment, Kamario would have put up 28+ on them

the lsu defense away from home has also been shredded twice 

If they can stop this South Florida Auburn offense you should win but I wanted to share with you what I saw in that game, I’m not trying to talk you out of anything, I’d feel terrible if you won your initial read

 >> should be an interesting game then - good info and thanks

> https://247sports.com/college/lsu/article/lsu-tigers-football-injury-report-princewill-umanmielen-jackson-harris-against-mississippi-state-291371281/

Have been checking injuries as I go but for some reason did not and its great having eyes from amigos helping !! This is where the boneheads who come into threads DEMANDING stuff don't get the whole purpose of COVERS NCAAF COMMUNITY .... but once again, you demonstrate community leadership in spades and I learn from you my friend

@Last2thirst

 I’ve always tried to help others, especially those who are nice, I’m always wanting more great cappers on this site, the more the better, that aspect has fallen here though

you get hate when you get big threads & egos, it comes with the territory, I used to want that stuff banned but as I’ve gotten older I realize that is just part of any group, I’m nice to everyone on this site, I also expect hate if I don’t win, it does boost your ego when you know you can beat the book in front of everyone on an annual basis haha, it is what it is amigo, as the saying goes “smoke em’ if you got em’” 

I appreciate forum members like you who contribute & are willing to post your bets, it takes a certain kind of stones to put yourself out there, not everyone can do it 

I’m starting to notice a few newish members that are shaping up to be sharp bettors as well, we used to have 50 of those posting per week, I hope they all have more success than I do, we all get bigger accounts if that is the case 

lots of fun, big egos, big results, let’s go brother  

not everyone at every party is fun, just to go to a few of them & you’ll see 

Play #3 - Under Michigan 42.5 x 1U

-bend but don't break kind of game for Michigan and Cignetti conscious of not trying to light up opponents if they are struggling > he has a type of defense like Ohio St, that knows how to manage their end of the field on defense

- Michigan has little chance to score 17 in my opinion and yes their starter will be motivated with being benched for a while but he is not better than Sayin or Colandra and they could only muster 17-20 

I see an efficient 24-13 type of score or even 21-16 maybe...with an inspired offensive performance ....this Michigan defense will try to shut down the Hoosier offense from TDs so it keeps Michigan within one score distance most of the game 

- if Indiana gets up 2 scores, they have enough RB weaponry and reliable receivers to keep the drives rolling but efficient use of the clock 

should be a grinder, both coaches are ok with it being a rock fight, I need to check weather here as I’m behind a touch this week 

Perfect weather forecast! That doesn't bother me with this number > https://www.oddstrader.com/ncaa-college-football/weather/

 Seems like O.U. will smell blood if Taylor is unable to play and/or if he is not 100% at game time. State is not much with his absence.

Sooners no longer playing for much ....pride and recruiting is about it ....they have 3 losses. If Kamario were playing, I would be on State and I think they would be -2.5 to -3 

I am going to reveal what angle I am going for soon enough...I keep getting interrupted today on my research and way behind. Miss St figures into my angle but will explain once I am done research and lines brew a little. If I gave it away now, I wouldn't be ready and perhaps some lines could move as a result from too many seeing the angle 

Play #4 - Iowa - Minnesota Over 40.5 @1.88 x 1U

-first of all, Iowa has a golden opportunity to run the table and make the PLAYOFFs ....their philosophy on offense is refreshing from other years with more QB action but still plenty of good RB plays to move the chains... Minnesota is not the same defending wizard, nor is Iowa like years past but Hawkeyes are still strong ....QB play from Minnesota has been good and points are being scored

-with better defenses and more 'plodding' offenses, these two teams have produced numbers over 41 for two years straight

-this year, I believe the game has more meaning for both teams with the Gophers tough remaining schedule with wiggle room to get 2 more wins but it means they are going to have to take chances and steal some games

-Iowa, as I said, can move the ball this year and put up points

-weather won't be ideal but it won't affect the scoring and moving of the ball for either team

- don't use the Michigan game as a measuring stick because the Wolverines offense is NOT as efficient as either both of these teams and I am shocked I am saying this .....ever!!

Score prediction > one team should get to 24 pts and maybe more... the other should get to 17-21

Play #5 - UNDER Oklahoma - Miss St UNDER 46 x HALF U

-no chance Kamario will play in my opinion > the Sooners can be a buzzsaw in the backfield and Kamario will not be that mobile or healed ...I have read how long it takes for a combo turf toe and hairline fracture and he needs more time....and probably won't play against Texas but I can see them rolling him out vs Vandy in week 10 because then they have a chance to get to win 5 and continue to push for a bowl with a more healthy QB 

-Sooners have issues running the ball but will be able to throw on State who are strong vs the run but weaker against the pass

-how does Venables get his run game going? Feature the pass to get more run confidence and we will probably see this....i don't see the Sooner running up the score more than 35 and I find it hard to believe State will score more than 10 on the Sooners defense that is one of the 10 best ....Sooners want a bowl and some momentum too

-State's defense is good enough to hold the score to something like 31 - 10... 35 - 10 ...State are depleted at RB also and their backup QB is raw 

Bullet #1 on my trend observation.... I will elaborate in 24 -48 hours if I get my other 2 plays that I am stalking....plus more

Play #6 - Cincy +10.5 x 1U 

-writeup to follow soon

Good luck Last2thirst 

I always  check my old home Gophers out as one of the first games. I like that 40 1/2 even though these two can play some scrappy defensive games,I like the points this year

I'm with you on the over 40 1/2

That's good to hear Totter ....wait till I expose an interesting Week 8 trend soon..... quite the interesting intel I found just going over games myself 

I am leaning toward taking the Gophers also if I see a +7 or better....I am an Iowa fan but recognize looking ahead at Fleck's schedule that he will take risks moreso than ever in this game I bet

Play #7 - Army +1.5 x HALF U 

-lost a squeaker at home to Tulsa and now with a good chance for revenge with I think, a better team this year but Tulsa is pretty good itself BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH to beat another academy in Navy losing by 8 

-I think Army matches up well here....+ revenge

Ok, I think I am ready to reveal my trend soon....stalking about 4 games....gonna have a lot of plays this week I think. Realize though, I have not made one SP+ update matchup and already have 7 plays plus will probably end up with 2-5 more

LSU Game Under looks good to me as well.    BOL my friend. 

Hope so!! Thanks Vegas 

I am going to elaborate on some things later today but need the morning to solidify if what I am seeing continues into Week 9 - 12