L2T Conference Betting Thread

Ya, long weekend here and working on stats for NCAAB tourney so I thought I would start with $150 on ACTION plays and see if I can leave myself with most of my Iowa St game bets covered...

Lets see what happens > perfect scenario in game one rakes $119 profit on $150 bet 

Next game up > $45 profit on $50 bet

That would leave me half of my bets covered .....lets see what happens and if I can find another I really really like

Ok,

Up $119 profit on action > bet $50 

New Play > $39 @1.9 on ULL/Old Dom UNDER 136

-ULL is going to have trouble scoring 

-ULL knows they have to play strong defense in their system to have a chance

-Old D does not like to have scores run up

Leaves me $30 profit if I lose this play and UNDER Coppin....perfect amount to try some WINNING MARGIN plays on something if I see it....

Sorry to bug but ULL/Old Dom a 1 unit or 1/2 unit play for you? Thanks.

$39 play which is $11 Under a HALF U

Sorry I did not see this...just laid my horses bet and got some takeout with my wife in the last hour

Up $75 profit  in ACTION plays ..... 

ALLIN on Morgan St +5.5 ....$75 

-they got upset at home by NCCentral who in their last game could not beat the 2nd worst team in NCAAB 

- Not sure why this line is climbing because Morgan tends to win their matchups in most years and most of the time both matches 

MORGAN ST is on a 6 - game win streak!! 

So NCCentral shooting like they are a top 10 team haha??? You bet with peril lurking with these bottom rung teams..... NO SWEAT. I am just using action profits but my main plays are still in effect 

Bethune - Iowa St > 2U parlay 

Bethune - Over Iowa St > 1U parlay

Finally, Bethune exerting itself to take over lead ....they are having trouble converting 3 pt shots but Jackson isnt

Morgan State is coming back late!! I went double big 2nd half -1 and didn't think I'd have a chance to win the +6 but all momentum with M State! Crazy.

  I got it!!! Morgan St down -23 early in first 5 minutes and storm back to get within 2 late

  Up +$142 profit on action plays .....just missed one?

Watching this HOU-IWST game....super fierce and fast ....wow!!!

Wow....Bethune lost !!!

Making an ingame bet now (down $45 on the day with these parlays busted!!)

I just took IWST to lead the half by 7 - 9 pts x HALF U winning margin +500 

IWST to lead the half by 1 - 3 pts +450 x HALF U

I can spend another HALF U and will hold that for 2nd half ....it will put me at down -$190 on the day 

Last $45 that I was going to spend on:

Houston to win the game winning margin by 1-2 pts x $30 @ +800

Houston to win the game by 3 - 6 pts x $15 @ +450 

If I see a lull in scoring and the total comes down, I would spend $60 more and go OVER any number over 141 or 141.5 ..... that is my read on this game ....might even take 142.5 

BOOM!!!!

I just took IWST to lead the half by 7 - 9 pts x HALF U winning margin +500    > pays me $300 return

IWST to lead the half by 1 - 3 pts +450 x HALF U ....nope

Up +$110 on the day with some free bets below for more gravy

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Still to come..

Houston to win the game winning margin by 1-2 pts x $30 @ +800

Houston to win the game by 3 - 6 pts x $15 @ +450

I am still hunting for an UNDER and gonna look at 2nd half lines now

UNDER 72.5 2nd half x HALF U +$10 = $60

- they will cool off this pace for the first 10 minutes and it might be higher scoring in the last 10 minutes perhaps but I don't think this goes over that number to end the game 156 pts or more TOTAL

Guaranteed to make $$ today ....its been fun

I am actually down -$12 after that last bet in-game ....I looked at my account again and realize why the number is lower than I thought....I bet $300 on parlays

What a game!!!

I think Houston is going to set up a 3 pt shot for the win !! 19.5 seconds left and down by two to Iowa St.

Neutral court ....IWST could not beat Houston in my opinion

UNDER 72.5 2nd half x HALF U +$10 = $60 > +$54 profit....meh ....made $102 on the day or 1U

GET SOME POPCORN READY!!

Michigan ML 1.66 will dominate Purdue  with Villanova ML 1.44  x 2U @+144

I might have one more play ... but going well and no need to force anything..... update of stats next however

$288 Profit 

Let's spend some of it

UNDER Nebraska 139.5 x HALF U

$38 ML on Nebraska @+105

Guaranteed to earn $200 (2U) today no matter what happens.... will work on tomorrow's games later

@Last2thirst

 that parlay was nice good one 

ok, that closes the book on today!

$288 Profit on parlay with Michigan/Villanova

Let's spend some of it

UNDER Nebraska 139.5 x HALF U  

$38 ML on Nebraska @+105  

Gained $295 ....I am now only less than $200 away from getting back to even for the last 6-7 days with that awful day when I pressed on 2 x 4U plays and lost them both

There is a rule in that ....don't press when you are down unless you have a very big stack to play with and its near the end of the season, OR PRESS when you are up 10U at least ........otherwise, trust your capping skill and grind away to get it back doing what you always do....that is the most important lesson I can give someone after betting horses for 4 decades and sports betting for about 25 yrs

Feb 18 TOP TEAMS update:

TOP 4  Especially have: >  Best Size, Talent, Full court Cohesion mix

#1 Michigan

#2 Duke

#3 UCONN

#4 Florida 

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#5 Arizona 

#6 Houston

#7 Purdue

#8 Iowa St  << don't know if they are built for neutral site game?

#9 Gonzaga

#10 Illinois   

Also considered: 

St.John's  << built to win on neutral court

Vanderbilt

Alabama

Texas Tech

Arkansas

Kansas 

Michigan St

Virginia 

Villanova 

BYU / Tennessee

Not sure how to place:  Louisville, NC State, N.Carolina, Nebraska SMU, Texas, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Indiana, Georgia

In: How good are these on neutral court?  St.Mary's, Clemson, Miami, Iowa, USC, Missouri, Ohio St, Miami OH, UCF

Non P5 Darkhorses to win a game+ at tourney (should get invite):  Santa Clara, Utah St, St. Louis, Belmont

44 Teams that should be in: ^^^^

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Teams that should not be in NCAAB Tourney if don't win Conf Tourney:  Baylor, TexasAM (< Auburn should be ahead of them after beating St J in non-Conf and losing to Houston by only 1pt), Oklahoma St, Syracuse, Dayton, Oklahoma, Colorado St, Tulsa, Hawaii, Yale, George Mason

Bubble: VCU, Auburn, Seton Hall, S.Florida, TCU, New Mexico, San Diego St, California, UCLA, VTECH, Cincy, WVU, Boise, Arizona St (if they keep winning shockers)

26 Conferences besides the POWER 5 in basketall > Big 10, SEC, ACC, BIG 12, Big East

- I personally think the WCC should be part of powerhouse P6 but next year PAC12 is where they move to and that will likely form the sixth >  P6 power conferences

Of the 44 on the list, who might fade due to too many from one to two P5 Conference choices or Non P5 teams:

Can Leave Bubble Watch with strong finish and Automatic Entry:

-one of > Indiana, Ohio St, Iowa

-one of > Texas, Georgia, Missouri

-one of > UCF, Texas

-maybe > Miami 

-maybe > Belmont

-reducing the automatic list to 34 teams +26 Conference winners > which 1-3 might be in the 34 Automatic entries:

So new BUBBLE TEAMS LIST now not assured unless they finish strongly or win tourney:

Bubble: Indiana, Ohio St, Iowa, Texas, UCF, Miami, VCU, Auburn, Seton Hall,  Belmont, S.Florida, TCU, New Mexico, San Diego St, California, UCLA, VTECH, Cincy, WVU, Boise, Arizona St (if they keep winning shockers)

Should mention Boise..... don't see them in the tourney either...they have to beat UTAH ST tonight in their building to gain bubble

*** by the way, I have not looked at any bubble list so going to do so now out of curiousity ***

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Really nice card for a Wednsesday night - Games/situations I really like the line or Total

UNDER:

BYU-Zona > do you notice Zona clamping on defense now, and BYU having trouble scoring vs top teams??

Crei-UCONN > Creighton has trouble scoring vs good teams on the road /UCONN gonna get back to machine mode on both ends using the clock on offense which they will need to do to get through elite 8 in my opinion

ETSU/Furman > on the fence on this one ....needs more study

St Joes/St Bonn > same

Arkansas/Alabama > same > that number might be too high for late in the season

OVERS:

Richmond/Davidson > both teams have cranked up their shooting %/pace and Totals have followed > they will need to play and win their conference tourney this way so I do not see a defensive battle here 

Oklahoma/Tennessee > Tenn knows how to play defense with their coach's system BUT over the past few years, when a gunslinging offensive team like Oklahoma comes into the building, they crank up their offensive competitiveness too

FAVE LINES I LIKE: - need to do correlations and matchup inspection

Wofford -13.5

Georgetown -6.5

Alabama -4.5

GMason -1.5

Navy -9.5

NDak St -1.5 

DOGS: - nothing yet upon first glance but I think my correlations will find something