L2T Conference Betting Thread

Play #1 - Razorbacks-Tide UNDER 185 x 1U  << this total is BONKERS!

-are they capable of going over this? YES

-will they be motivated to? I am not certain and in fact, a check of matchup stats shows that they tend to score their matchups in the 160's and both teams have good perimeter defense stats

-if I saw poor perimeter defense on one team or both, and this was not a seeding play for the NCAAB tourney ....with the loser likely now a 4th for sure and likely a 5th seed, I wouldn't take a stab at it

Play #2 Under Arizona 162.5 x HALF U

Play #3 North Dakota St -1.5 @1.95 x 1.5 U

-solid on both ends of the court ....they are way better than the home team and this is a good rivalry

I played the Over in Tenn with parlays for Alabama on some local parlay tickets with other things like soccer and Over Tenn with ND St with same type of plays.....sweating out the Alabama win now

I could end up 0-3 tonight on my posted plays....lets see what happens....working on 2 - 1 best case scenario

UCONN is showing red flags ....they have been for a while. Is Hurley OVER COACHING and has built in an ego into the team that once they get rattled, they cannot counter punched?? I have coached strong teams like this and it comes from over relying on star players and not a bench to play better than they are in the moment.....

Counter punching when they need to call on it, is what has held back some programs like Michigan St, Gonzaga and some others if I think about it.... Kentucky recently too 

I now don't know if UCONN is a top 4 and there might be some issues within the team. Next game vs a strong team will be critical before the NCAAB tourney

Duke I know, can counter punch but we will see how they are vs a very elite Michigan team. Losing to Creighton tonight is not a good thing to see this late in the season for UCONN or it could drive their motivation?

2 - 1 +1U

I look forward to studying the card tomorrow

Matchup Play: Montana -1.5 x 2U

-they have a good offense and face a poor defense

-Idaho St on a long losing streak and not a good matchup to end it 

** degree of caution** << I am going AGAINST a double FADE correlation here!!

Play #2 Portland St Under 143.5 x 1U

-this team is razor sharp at home and rated higher than their opponent mostly on the fact their defense is strong and they are good at converting turnovers and executing their offense on a long clock which frustrates their opponent for stretches forcing up even faster or worse shots 

-I only see one team scoring over 70 pts MAYBE and that would be PST!

@Last2thirst

 Not your style to go against a double fade correlation with a 2u play, I'd think a 1/2 unit but I'm going big bc if you say it's 2u, I'm in regardless. Thanks for posting your plays firstthirst.

True and valid response JSN 

I line is short - bonus #1

The head to head strongly favours Montana - hook 

The dog is on a long losing streak including home games - hook

This is why I called it a MATCHUP PLAY ... cheers

Hell yea thanks! I'm riding with you was just curious about it. 

Another truism I have seen this season....when you see a 'skinny line' especially for the better offense with no injury issues, those a hitting more times than not

Skinny line = E to -2

Teams in the top third to 150th as a fave are  > 191 - 179 ATS with a line -2.5 or lower 

Portland State are animals at home!!! The spread was there too..... they convert defense into offense, so well!!

I reap what I sow....sorry about that ....Montana  bah!!

0-2 (-3U) << that's gambling ....going for quality and you get a thud in your account. Bad luck in Idaho-PST game.... IDAHO was down by 12 late and made a 3pt shot and decide to hack PST with .20 seconds left ....man I hate shit like that and saw Alabama and Arkansas do this when it seemed that game was well in hand for Alabama at one point BUT ...in their case, they had the players to hit deadly consecutive 3 pt shots and tied the game on last shot

Saturday: 

-we are definitely big game hunting !

PLAY #1 - BYU +3.5 at home x 1U and it this gets bigger, I will add for sure

- IWST has mostly had an easy road schedule and when they faced a top 20 team in their building, they got whacked hard by Kansas

-BYU on the road only lost to Kansas by 8 in a good back and forth game

-BYU needs to regain their moxy and with the killer home court/crowd and star player, that should happen here vs an IWST team that has a lot to prove in my opinion but has some sublime shooters and passers who know how to play defense but this game WILL NOT BE A ROCK FIGHT and I don't know who will win but I do know that BYU plays great at home 

Play #2 - Illinois -6.5 x HALF U

- they are back!

-they exorcised their loss demons and now running full tilt like they can ....UCLA with few advantages but a good team and will have to rely on their defense but this Illinois team can fight through any tough defense and have proved that through the year

-curious why this is so low....should be close to -9 for a Top 8 type of team

Play #3 - Winthrop +7.5 x HALF U

-much tougher schedule than HP and they will be game to stay even with them most of the game and can 

Play #4 Michigan -2.5 x 1.5 U

- this line needs watching....it DROPS, I add

- too many weapons and hand skill/size and speed on Michigan for Duke to handle but Duke can play defense so I am leaning to POUNDING THE UNDER too ....I want to see what happens to the total right up to game time and frankly, I don't have to play the total 

Next set of plays will be using my spreadsheet or matchup TOTALS where I feel Vegas made a mistake....

- I don't believe Duke can beat Michigan on neutral court and they are playing in Washington DC so I am on the right side so -2 would be worth a bet and -1.5 would too

-Duke's achilles heel is their FT shooting if I remember correctly and Michigan can be even MORE active with their size and handspeed/bumping style of defense so still looking at some angles before I add and WILL add tomorrow

Play #5 - Howard -12.5 x 1U

12 noon game and I think this line is too low

-Howard crushed them by 15+ in NCCU home court

-Howard has a point differential of over 16pts and a rank almost 100 pts higher

-when a team ranked 260 faces a team ranked in the lowest group with a spread of -11 to -15.5, they cover 15 - 10 ATS

Howard now -14 

Games with some matchup value in the 12pm -1:30pm slot:

- I can get Butler -3.5 at home and they have a +6.4 pt differential before taking in their home court advantage

-Butler with tougher SOS

-Butler with good 3 pt defense which is Xavier's bread and butter

-Xavier is not very good on offense

-correlations between rank groups are favorable for Butler and spread but not super positive

Double Correlation Fades:

Louisiana @ home +3.5

Coastal @ home +1.5 << would consider +3 or +2.5 but Coastal keeps taking money

Howard up 14 heading into last minute before half 

Howard looking good, I see C Car has drifted back up to +2 1/2 too.

Unfortunately, not in BET365

- teams that are 163st facing a 237th rank group are -27 ATS from .500 and with a spread for the fave below -3, they are -35 ATS from .500

I see the game has started....hope you get it as they are up by 3 now

Its good value for a HALF U buy but I won't take the +1.5 ....working on 2pm games and will release soon

Play #6 - Harvard +4.5 x HALF U

-combined, the DOUBLE negative correlation on rank group comparison and spread is a whopping -62  against the favorite

- no need to pound this BUT it presents an opportunity for someone to try if you like it....I want to bring home some UNITS and am saving my pounding for the Michigan and BYU games....perhaps Arizona - Houston and UCONN - Villa which I have my eyes on too

-Harvard +2 pts better point differential....SOS just 20 ranks weaker than Cornell's schedule ....Harvard is strong on the road vs good teams and don't mind mixing it up on offense but DEFINITELY, have the better defense vs Cornell

-I like the OVER here and took it mixed with Michigan ML and some other plays on parlay tickets....I got 155.5 on the OVER on those but I see the total is at 154.5 ....one team will score 80 pts for sure in my opinion

Play #7 - Over 154.5 x HALF U

Play #8 - Vanderbilt -3 x 1U

-I have a lot of respect for how Tennessee is playing lately including vs good teams

-BUT....their road ATS is only 2 - 5....have to play a juggernaut home offense who is killer 12 - 2 home record SU 

-Vandy also has a +3.3 point differential advantage 

Play #9 Central Arkansas -1.5 x 1 U

-FGCU is only 3-11 ATS at home

-CARK has won 10 in a row 

-+3 POINT differential and +11 on the rank correlation and + 36 on spread ......STRONG DOUBLE favorite correlation

C. Arkansas really need this game to stay within 1 game of Austin Peay for first place in the A-Sun, with the 2 teams clashing Wednesday at Arkansas ... 

If you want more action...

Cenn Conn is a whopping +11 pt differential over Chicago St and have really good offensive stats .....they are -4.5 on the road and this rank correlation and spread is a DOUBLE POSITIVE for both

-Cenn Conn with a strong road ATS 

LeMoyne at Stonehill -3.5 is also DOUBLE POSITIVE for the road team and they also have a very solid road ATS 

LIU @ Mercyhurst -3 is DOUBLE POSITIVE with very strong rank correlation result for favorite here of greater than +100 ranks