Do you have any information on how this system plays out regarding KenPom's point difference vs. the spread?
For example in the 3 games we have for today KenPom predicts the final results:
Furman loses 76-64 (difference of 12 points vs. spread of 13)
Southern Utah loses 70-56 (difference of 14 points vs. spread of 10.5)
Fairfield loses 67-59 (difference of 8 points vs. spread of 8)
As you can see the Furman and Fairfield spreads are right around the KenPom numbers. However, the Southern Utah game is 3.5 points from where we might expect it to be. On the surface it appears that Southern Utah might not be as strong of a play as the other two. However, the way I've been playing these differences, even in other games that don't fit the system, is to make a larger play on the team who is giving up those few extra points. It's a counterintuitive play. Perhaps I'm wrong with this and would like to know how you guys feel about it. Here's what I mean.
So for example, let's take the Southern Utah game. Predicted 70-56. 14 point difference. I would make a larger play on this game if the point spread is 10.5 like it is as opposed to say 17.5. Some of you are probably thinking Imprezive's an idiot. Why would he value getting just 10.5 MORE than getting 17.5 points? And my reasoning is Vegas knows something or has somehow factored in SOMETHING to make the spread at 10.5 as opposed to the 14 that it should be or the 17.5 that it could be.
I've noticed that if you compare the KenPom game predictions to the actual spreads that that the good majority are almost spot on. Furman and Fairfield are great examples of that. And the good majority of games are like that too. KenPom usually comes very close to the spread. So what would posses Vegas to set a line 3 points one way or the other? This is what I don't understand. Not just why they do it, but also what is the correct play? And I'd like to hear your thoughts.
I'll leave you with one more example from today's games that fits what I'm talking about. It is NOT a system play, but just want to throw it out there to see who you would pick and why you think the line is the way it is. Miami @ Florida State -5. Ken Pom predicts a score of 62-54. That's predicting an 8 point FSU win, but yet the line is at 5. Here's where you can feel free to bash me for being an idiot or saying yeah that's spot on. In this example if I had to bet, I'd take Miami +5. And my angle is there has got to be some sort of mathematical reason or whatever that Vegas didn't set the line around 8. They're not in the business of giving away money. And you can't say it's about the big name of Miami or any of that because this example doesn't seem any different than the Southern Utah game today. And that one is particularly intriguing.
So Las Vegas, you mean to tell me that about the worst team in all of Division 1 ball according to Ken Pom, Southern Utah, is going to get just 10.5 points as opposed to the 14 they should be getting!?!? Does this not scream for suckers to bet Sacramento State? Does this not mean that us, the savvy betters (term loosely as I've been sucking hard), should bet on Southern Utah because we know Vegas doesn't just hand out these gifts?
What is your angle on this guys? Am I over thinking this or am I onto something? CJM says he likes Furman the best today and I'll be on them and the other 2 because of this system. But to me, I like Southern Utah the best.
Thanks for your help guys and thank you for sharing this system with us.
well thought out analysis and work by you.any angle we can try and get helps. I will only speak for myself....I trust the system as it has made me money(and 'pre' system) last 3 years so I don't get into all the work that you are doing trying to figure out why vegas would set a line a couple points different than kenpom rankings and estimates. I would drive myself whacky trying to figure out what makes the linesmakers tick and set numbers for whatever reason and there are plenty of intangables from which they can do this. again, if we could know why they would set a number we need to take our talents elsewhere.i continue to believe that vegas sets lines to get + money, doesn't always work that way, as we know money can move lines, as well as a number of other things. so without further comment..as a recovering alcoholic I try to keep it simple and just wager system and don't 'confuse' myself. again, we are garden variety bettors and everyone is different. just giving my two cents here! gl tonight! ryno
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