Posted:
#1326
so. Utah 
2012 Kempom System
Posted:
#1327
Quote Originally Posted by Leapfrog:
Sorry, I think you misinterpreted me. I didn't say 4-3-1 was bad. I meant it started out quite rough (3 losses and a push and a win in first 5 games yesterday). Any loss in the last 3 would have put us at a loss for the day. But it won out from there, it won out which is awesome!
I wasn't bashing the system at all...hence why I'm playing it.
hey leap..all good here..i don't get too bent out of shape on this forum. I look at it as I play what I play and I post this 'pre' system and system every year. I was just saying you play these teams you have to hold your breath a little ya know? but in the end, system was set up because linesmakers might be giving too much value to home team. our job is to find the winners!
gl ryno
Posted:
#1328
Quote Originally Posted by King Creole42:
how did the 1st halves do....had to work yd, and didn't get a chance to see the 1st half lines....thanks
how did the 1st halves do....had to work yd, and didn't get a chance to see the 1st half lines....thanks
I think first halves we 4-4...so far roughly 50% I think ill just play full game on large cards. im not comfortable using up my bankroll for 50% give or take.
Posted:
#1334
Quote Originally Posted by bamasluggers:
I have read #1241 and I also thought both Drake and Charlotte would be plays today. Charlotte is #152 and is +13.5 while Drake is 187 and is +9.5. Help to understand why neither of these are plays according to post 1241. THANKS!
This system fades teams outside the Kenpom top 140 LAYING points.
Posted:
#1335
Quote Originally Posted by bamasluggers:
I have read #1241 and I also thought both Drake and Charlotte would be plays today. Charlotte is #152 and is +13.5 while Drake is 187 and is +9.5. Help to understand why neither of these are plays according to post 1241. THANKS!
How the darn can you read that and come away with those? You need to go back to the fifth grade.
Posted:
#1337
Sorry, not all of you are as smart as you, but we will try to live up to your expectations. Did not know you were the greatest thing to ever live in your own mind.
Quote Originally Posted by salsantorre:
How the darn can you read that and come away with those? You need to go back to the fifth grade.
Posted:
#1339
Tomorrow's plays (as of now)
Southern Utah +11.5 vs. Sacramento State (#276)
Furman +13 vs. Western Carolina (#234)
These appear to be pretty strong considering we only need 7.5 or more to fade teams when they are rated below 200, and we're getting DD.
Fairfield +8 vs. Siena (#206)
This one is really close because Siena is barely over the 200 plateau, and because it's only .5 away from the benchmark of 7.5... it does qualify as a play though.
Posted:
#1346
Quote Originally Posted by divotdigger45:
ryno do you play the 1st half on days like today , when not many fit, and how do you figure when to play the ml, thanks for all your work
ryno do you play the 1st half on days like today , when not many fit, and how do you figure when to play the ml, thanks for all your work
divot...I was playing them but after Saturday I might just go light on just the ones I like....as far as monley lines...when system starts Thursday ill throw 25 to 50 on ml if they are true system fit.
gl today! ryno
Posted:
#1347
Do you have any information on how this system plays out regarding KenPom's point difference vs. the spread?
For example in the 3 games we have for today KenPom predicts the final results:
Furman loses 76-64 (difference of 12 points vs. spread of 13)
Southern Utah loses 70-56 (difference of 14 points vs. spread of 10.5)
Fairfield loses 67-59 (difference of 8 points vs. spread of 8)
As you can see the Furman and Fairfield spreads are right around the KenPom numbers. However, the Southern Utah game is 3.5 points from where we might expect it to be. On the surface it appears that Southern Utah might not be as strong of a play as the other two. However, the way I've been playing these differences, even in other games that don't fit the system, is to make a larger play on the team who is giving up those few extra points. It's a counterintuitive play. Perhaps I'm wrong with this and would like to know how you guys feel about it. Here's what I mean.
So for example, let's take the Southern Utah game. Predicted 70-56. 14 point difference. I would make a larger play on this game if the point spread is 10.5 like it is as opposed to say 17.5. Some of you are probably thinking Imprezive's an idiot. Why would he value getting just 10.5 MORE than getting 17.5 points? And my reasoning is Vegas knows something or has somehow factored in SOMETHING to make the spread at 10.5 as opposed to the 14 that it should be or the 17.5 that it could be.
I've noticed that if you compare the KenPom game predictions to the actual spreads that that the good majority are almost spot on. Furman and Fairfield are great examples of that. And the good majority of games are like that too. KenPom usually comes very close to the spread. So what would posses Vegas to set a line 3 points one way or the other? This is what I don't understand. Not just why they do it, but also what is the correct play? And I'd like to hear your thoughts.
I'll leave you with one more example from today's games that fits what I'm talking about. It is NOT a system play, but just want to throw it out there to see who you would pick and why you think the line is the way it is. Miami @ Florida State -5. Ken Pom predicts a score of 62-54. That's predicting an 8 point FSU win, but yet the line is at 5. Here's where you can feel free to bash me for being an idiot or saying yeah that's spot on. In this example if I had to bet, I'd take Miami +5. And my angle is there has got to be some sort of mathematical reason or whatever that Vegas didn't set the line around 8. They're not in the business of giving away money. And you can't say it's about the big name of Miami or any of that because this example doesn't seem any different than the Southern Utah game today. And that one is particularly intriguing.
So Las Vegas, you mean to tell me that about the worst team in all of Division 1 ball according to Ken Pom, Southern Utah, is going to get just 10.5 points as opposed to the 14 they should be getting!?!? Does this not scream for suckers to bet Sacramento State? Does this not mean that us, the savvy betters (term loosely as I've been sucking hard), should bet on Southern Utah because we know Vegas doesn't just hand out these gifts?
What is your angle on this guys? Am I over thinking this or am I onto something? CJM says he likes Furman the best today and I'll be on them and the other 2 because of this system. But to me, I like Southern Utah the best.
Thanks for your help guys and thank you for sharing this system with us.
For example in the 3 games we have for today KenPom predicts the final results:
Furman loses 76-64 (difference of 12 points vs. spread of 13)
Southern Utah loses 70-56 (difference of 14 points vs. spread of 10.5)
Fairfield loses 67-59 (difference of 8 points vs. spread of 8)
As you can see the Furman and Fairfield spreads are right around the KenPom numbers. However, the Southern Utah game is 3.5 points from where we might expect it to be. On the surface it appears that Southern Utah might not be as strong of a play as the other two. However, the way I've been playing these differences, even in other games that don't fit the system, is to make a larger play on the team who is giving up those few extra points. It's a counterintuitive play. Perhaps I'm wrong with this and would like to know how you guys feel about it. Here's what I mean.
So for example, let's take the Southern Utah game. Predicted 70-56. 14 point difference. I would make a larger play on this game if the point spread is 10.5 like it is as opposed to say 17.5. Some of you are probably thinking Imprezive's an idiot. Why would he value getting just 10.5 MORE than getting 17.5 points? And my reasoning is Vegas knows something or has somehow factored in SOMETHING to make the spread at 10.5 as opposed to the 14 that it should be or the 17.5 that it could be.
I've noticed that if you compare the KenPom game predictions to the actual spreads that that the good majority are almost spot on. Furman and Fairfield are great examples of that. And the good majority of games are like that too. KenPom usually comes very close to the spread. So what would posses Vegas to set a line 3 points one way or the other? This is what I don't understand. Not just why they do it, but also what is the correct play? And I'd like to hear your thoughts.
I'll leave you with one more example from today's games that fits what I'm talking about. It is NOT a system play, but just want to throw it out there to see who you would pick and why you think the line is the way it is. Miami @ Florida State -5. Ken Pom predicts a score of 62-54. That's predicting an 8 point FSU win, but yet the line is at 5. Here's where you can feel free to bash me for being an idiot or saying yeah that's spot on. In this example if I had to bet, I'd take Miami +5. And my angle is there has got to be some sort of mathematical reason or whatever that Vegas didn't set the line around 8. They're not in the business of giving away money. And you can't say it's about the big name of Miami or any of that because this example doesn't seem any different than the Southern Utah game today. And that one is particularly intriguing.
So Las Vegas, you mean to tell me that about the worst team in all of Division 1 ball according to Ken Pom, Southern Utah, is going to get just 10.5 points as opposed to the 14 they should be getting!?!? Does this not scream for suckers to bet Sacramento State? Does this not mean that us, the savvy betters (term loosely as I've been sucking hard), should bet on Southern Utah because we know Vegas doesn't just hand out these gifts?
What is your angle on this guys? Am I over thinking this or am I onto something? CJM says he likes Furman the best today and I'll be on them and the other 2 because of this system. But to me, I like Southern Utah the best.
Thanks for your help guys and thank you for sharing this system with us.
Posted:
#1350
Quote Originally Posted by cutebrute:
Do you guys think it is better to wait for better lines or bet them right away.
Do you guys think it is better to wait for better lines or bet them right away.
its a crapshoot as far as ive seen over the years on grabing lines early or late. a big problem we had with this system(in some peoples eyes) is that the system becomes popular and 'cat is out of the bag' so to speak and lines start moving against us. well, I tend to try and grab the opener... and take my lumps if it moves to help me...last Friday cornell moved almost 2 pts from open in our favor and i was wishing I waited...I just went with it...and won....personally.. I don't try and overthink these and grab what I can as we will never truly know which way line will move up to game time.....if you do...you need to take your talents to vegas! :)
I will say that anytime I parlay these I buy a point every time. and for some reason it helps me more than not.
gl tonight..ryno
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