In a season with historic scoring and a week with historic totals, the Week 5 Sunday Night Football clash between the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks boasts the tallest Over/Under on the board.
The NFL betting odds have this total at 57.5 points, expecting a shootout in Seattle Sunday night, with the host Seahawks giving a touchdown to the Vikings. Seattle enters this game 4-0 SU and ATS on the year while Minnesota is 1-3 SU but 2-2 ATS.
These are our best NFL free picks and predictions for Vikings vs. Seahawks on October 11.
Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks betting preview
Weather
The forecast is calling for an 80 percent chances of showers Sunday night with temperatures in the low 50s and winds blowing SSW up to 20 mph at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Vikings: Kris Boyd CB (Questionable), Mike Hughes CB (Probable), Adam Thielen WR (Probable), Eric Kendricks LB (Probable).
Seahawks: Will Dissly TE (Questionable), Bobby Wagner LB (Questionable), Shaquil Griffin CB (Questionable), Mike Iupati G (Probable), Duane Brown T (Questionable), Carlos Hyde RB (Questionable), Jamal Adams S (Out), Quinton Dunbar CB (Questionable).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-2 in the Vikings' last 7 road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Seahawks.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
You’ve got to be good to be lucky and Seahawks bettors have been lucky. Seattle has been in dog fights entering the fourth quarter the past three games, holding a slim 17-15 lead over Miami in the final frame last week and trailing in the fourth quarter the previous two games. Yet, here it stands 4-0 SU but more impressively 4-0 ATS.
The first thing people jump at when looking at this matchup is Russell Wilson facing a Vikings defense that has been susceptible to the deep ball. Minnesota has given up 19 passing plays of 20 or more yards, but it has also been very solid in other areas – important areas.
The Vikes have been excellent at getting opponents off the field, holding foes to under 32 percent success on third downs through four games. They’ve also been great in the red zone, leaving opponents without a touchdown inside the 20-yard line 41 percent of the time – second-lowest in the NFL.
Offensively, Minnesota can punch in Seattle’s weight class. The Vikings passing game can exploit a soft Seattle secondary that has given up 20 passes of 20 or more on the year, with top targets like Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson helping post 16 of those deep strikes (20-plus yards).
I believe the Vikings are better than their 1-3 record indicates, and they should stay inside the touchdown Sunday night.
PREDICTION: Minnesota +7 (-110)
Over/Under pick
I featured this total in my “Bet Now/Bet Later” article earlier in the week and suggested that if you like the Over you should bet it now, because the makeup of these two teams and the scoring rate of the 2020 season would likely push it upwards. The number has flirted with 58 points a few times, with money on the Under instantly pushing it back down to 57.5 again.
Perhaps the best defense for Minnesota in this matchup is a plodding offense, fueled by running back Dalvin Cook. Seattle has been stout against the run this season, but Cook is rushing at an incredible rate and even if he suffers a downtick from his 5.7 yards per carry, that’s more than enough for the Vikes to milk the TOP and put Wilson on ice.
Going run-heavy also takes some pressure off QB Kirk Cousins, who has struggled with turnovers early in the year. He has six interceptions on the season and while he didn’t get picked off against the toothless Houston Texans last week (they have zero takeaways on the year), the Seahawks are an opportunistic bunch with eight takeaways (six INTs).
Also working against the Over is the potential weather in Seattle, with the extended forecast calling for rain and cold Sunday night at CenturyLink. The Vikings have yet to play outside yet in 2020 and Cousins’ production sinks like a stone in outdoor venues, with a career QB rating of 93.1 outside (compared to 107.4 QBR inside).
PREDICTION: Under 57.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Stopping Wilson doesn’t just mean snuffing out those big throws. It also means containing him when he breaks out of the pocket. On the year, the Seahawks QB has 95 yards on the ground on 18 rushing attempts and 28 of those gains came on third down.
The Vikes have been great on third-down situations and also stingy when it comes to rival QBs doing damage with their legs. Minnesota has allowed QBs to total just 21 yards on 16 rushes so far this season (lowest in the NFL), most notably bottling up Houston dual-threat Deshaun Watson for a mere nine yards on five runs last week.
This is nothing new to Mike Zimmer’s defense, which ranked tops in the NFL in rushing yards from QBs last year, giving up 92 yards on 26 carries. Wilson was one of those QBs, with only 13 yards on four runs when these teams clashed last December. Wilson managed just five yards on four runs last week versus the Dolphins.
PREDICTION: Russell Wilson Under 22.5 rushing yards (-130)
Vikings vs Seahawks betting card
- Minnesota +7 (-110)
- Under 57.5 (-110)
- Russell Wilson Under 22.5 rushing yards (-130)
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