The early bird may get the worm, but the late worm avoids getting turned into bird shit. It’s all about timing and in NFL betting, getting the best of the numbers often takes perfect timing.
We scan the freshly unpacked NFL Week 5 odds and monitor the early action, giving you our best betting tips when it comes to which spreads and totals you should bet now and which ones you should bet later.
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team (+9): Bet now
The Rams make their third cross-country trip in four weeks when they come to the nation’s capital to take on the Football Team. Los Angeles looked lethargic in its slim win over the New York Giants at home on Sunday, winning 17-9 but failing to cover the lofty 13.5-point spread.
Washington did just enough to cover as a 14.5-point home underdog against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, sneaking in the backdoor with a late score in the fourth quarter. The Football Team opened as big as +9.5 for this Week 5 game and early money bumped it down a half a point.
As of Sunday evening (9:30 p.m. ET), Washington is +9 with the juice tipping to -115 at some books, indicating that this could come off the key numbers and drop to +8.5 with early play on the home side. If you’re fading the Rams’ frequent flyer miles, jump on Washington now.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Houston Texans: Bet later
The Texans are the most disappointing team of 2020 so far. Sure, it may not be fair to bash Houston based on its opening schedule. But after taking on the likes of Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, losing to Minnesota at home in Week 4 was pretty damning.
The 0-4 Texans opened as 6.5-point home chalk hosting Jacksonville in Week 5 and immediately play came in on the hungry home side. Most books are either dealing hefty vig on Houston -6.5 or have already gone to -7. The Jaguars obviously took advantage of opponents’ lack of preparation in the opening two weeks of the season (2-0 ATS) and have fallen back to earth with two straight losses SU and ATS.
Jacksonville had injuries on both sides of the ball in Week 4, but if you’ve been burned bad by the Texans so far this season and can’t bring yourself to bet on them again, wait this out and see if you can get the Jags +7 or higher.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (Over 57.5): Bet now
Totals continue to climb in the 2020 season, with scoring on a record pace through four weeks. The Week 5 Sunday Night Football total is teetering into that magic Over/Under range. Going back to 2006, totals of 57.5 points or more have gone 7-1 Over/Under.
We know what we’re getting from these two teams: a whole lot of points and not much push back. The Vikings apparently have their offensive wrinkles ironed out, scoring 30 and 31 points in the past two weeks after posting only 11 in Week 2. Dalvin Cook is a fantasy god and WR Justin Jefferson is giving his old LSU quarterback a run for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
And then there’s Russell Wilson. The Seahawks had a bad day at the office in Week 4 and still scored 31 points against Miami. Seattle’s explosive attack should fest on a banged-up Minnesota defense ranked 29th versus the pass. In fact, the only other team to allow more passing plays of 20-plus yards than Minnesota (19) is… Seattle (20).
Grab the Over and enjoy the show Sunday night.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets (Under 47): Bet later
Are we still convinced that the Cardinals have a great offense? Arizona has all the pieces on paper. Well, it has Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. But this is Year 2 under Kliff Kingsbury, and the points were supposed to be falling from the sky. But instead, there’s a scoring drought in the desert, with the Cardinals averaging a pedestrian 24.5 points entering Week 5.
Arizona plays its second straight road game on Sunday, this time traveling across the country for a 1 p.m. ET start in East Rutherford. The Jets are coming off a WTF Thursday nighter with the Broncos, which saw a combined 65 points scored versus a Over/Under total of 41. New York was responsible for 28 of those points but they came against a decimated Denver defense.
Arizona’s stop unit is holding this team together – and that’s saying something after allowing 31 points to Carolina this past weekend. The Week 5 total opened as low as 46.5 points and has climbed to 47. If you’re on the Under in Jersey, wait it out and see if you can get this any higher before clicking submit.
Where can I get the best odds on the NFL?
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