Two CFL franchises with similar trajectories face off on Sunday with the Ottawa Redblacks taking on the Edmonton Elks.
Led by budding quarterback Tre Ford, Edmonton is coming off its first win of 2023 and will now look for revenge against a Redblacks side that beat them earlier this year. Meanwhile, Ottawa is led by a young QB of its own and will look to snap a four-game skid.
This should be a close contest as CFL betting odds are installing this Week 12 showdown as a pick'em. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Redblacks vs. Elks on August 27.
Redblacks vs Elks best odds
Redblacks vs Elks picks and predictions
The pick'em line on this game makes plenty of sense when you consider the similarities between these teams. Not only have the Ottawa Reblacks and Edmonton Elks been far and away the worst teams in the league since 2021, but they've both performed even worse at home during that span. More importantly, both franchises have gotten a recent spark from a pair of dynamic young QBs.
The Elks are fresh off their first victory of the season last week, beating the Ticats 24-10. Tre Ford passed for 174 yards and a pair of scores while adding 60 yards on the ground, which are both impressive numbers when you consider the messy weather in that contest. They almost won in Ford's first career start the previous week but the Blue Bombers rallied to edge them in the fourth quarter.
The Redblacks got a similar boost earlier in the year when Dustin Crum took over as their starting QB and led them to back-to-back overtime wins against Winnipeg and Calgary. They've cooled off since then, going just 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread, but the offense has still averaged 26.3 points per game in the last three games with Crum under center.
While both of these teams have struggled at defending the pass, the Redblacks have been stingy against the run. In fact, they rank first in the league in both rushing yards allowed per game (69.4) and yards allowed per carry (3.7). The Elks are at the other end of the spectrum, sitting dead-last in the CFL with 143.1 rushing yards allowed per game and 6.0 yards allowed per carry.
Another area where Ottawa has a clear advantage is the turnover ratio. The Redblacks lead the league with 30 takeaways while the Elks are tied for last with 27 giveaways. If the Redblacks can win the turnover battle while containing Ford and the Elks' ground game, they'll take this contest.
My best bet: Redblacks +1 (-110 at bet365)
Redblacks vs Elks same-game parlay
Redblacks +1.5 (-120)
Devonte Williams u66.5 rushing yards (-114)
Tre Ford Over 185.5 passing yards (-114)
Considering Edmonton's poor run defense is a big reason why I think Ottawa will win, it might seem strange to back the Redblacks and fade their starting running back Devonte Williams. However, this number is simply too high for Williams, as first-year CFL RB hasn't had more than 64 rushing yards in a single game this season.
Williams is just 170 pounds so he's not built to be a workhorse, and in six contests with Crum at QB, he's averaging just 9.5 carries per game. It's more likely that Crum will take advantage of Edmonton's sloppy tackling and that backup RB Jackson Bennett (a 212-pound wrecking ball who can also play linebacker) will get some carries as well.
Ford is the fastest QB in the league but he can also sling the ball. In his first career start against a stingy Bombers pass defense, the Elks starter threw for 189 yards on just 16 pass attempts. Last week, Ford compiled 174 yards through the air on 18 attempts in a game where messy weather suppressed passing.
However, it'll be a beautiful day in Edmonton on Sunday, and offensive coordinator Jarious Jackson will likely try to take advantage of an Ottawa secondary that ranks last in the CFL in passing yards allowed per game (326.7) and yards allowed per pass attempt (10.1).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Redblacks vs Elks spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened with the Redblacks as slim 1-point road faves, but money has come in on the home side and this line is now either at a pick'em or favoring the Elks by a single point. The total hasn't seen any movement and is listed at 45.5 or 46, depending on the book.
The Elks might have the worst record in the league at 1-9, but they've gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games and have covered in both of Ford's starts.
The Redblacks are coming off a 25-24 loss to the Alouettes, which was their fourth loss in a row. That said, three of those defeats came by a combined total of seven points, so it's obvious that they've been much more competitive with Crum under center. The O/U has gone 5-1 in Crum's six starts after going 0-4 before he took over in Week 6.
Despite ranking last in the league in yards allowed per play, the Under has gone 7-3 on the year for Edmonton and it will be interesting to see if the Over starts cashing with Ford at QB and superstar wideout Geno Lewis finally healthy.
Redblacks vs Elks trend to know
Although the Elks snapped a 13-game losing streak last week, they still have a 22-game losing streak at home and have gone just 4-18 ATS during that span. The RedBlacks have also gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Edmonton. Find more CFL betting trends for Redblacks vs. Elks.
Redblacks vs Elks game info
| Location: | The Brick Field at Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Sunday, August 27, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Redblacks vs Elks key injuries
Redblacks: Douglas Coleman DB, Tevaun Smith WR, Nate Behar WR (Out), Frankie Griffin OLB (Out), Blessman Ta'ala DT (Out), Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), Money Hunter DB (Out), Tyrie Adams QB (Out), DeVonte Dedmon WR/KR (Out).
Elks: Daniel Ross DT (Out), J-Min Pelley DT (Out), Enock Makonzo SLB (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out), Louchiez Purefoy DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
