The Ottawa Redblacks face off against the Montreal Alouettes in Week 1 of CFL action on Saturday night. The Redblacks have finished at the bottom of the East Division for the past three seasons while the Alouettes aim for their fourth-straight playoff appearance and finally have stability under new ownership.
CFL betting lines opened with the Als as 1.5-point home favorites, but ticked up to -2.5 after it was confirmed that Ottawa quarterback Jeremiah Masoli would miss the first two weeks as he recovers from surgery. Here are my best free Redblacks vs. Alouettes CFL picks and predictions for June 10.
Redblacks vs Alouettes best odds
Redblacks vs Alouettes picks and predictions
Although I'm expecting regression from the Alouettes this season after making the East Final a year ago, I'm backing them to cover against an Ottawa squad that should once again struggle.
Cody Fajardo is a step down from the departed Trevor Harris at QB for Montreal, but he looked sharp in the preseason and will be helped out by what might be the best ground game in the CFL.
William Stanback led the league in rushing in 2021 and while he missed most of last year with a broken ankle, he looks back to full strength. In his absence, backup running backs Jeshrun Antwi and Willaim Fletcher were productive, so now the Als have plenty of depth behind one of the better run-blocking lines in the league.
On defense, Montreal lost star SAM linebacker Adarius Pickett but added run-stuffing middle linebacker Avery Williams from Ottawa while bolstering its secondary with the additions of Jumal Rolle and Ciante Evans. It's not the stingiest stop-unit, but it should be good enough to limit an Ottawa offense that should once again to struggle put points on the board.
The success of the Redblacks offense hinges on Masoli, and without him for at least the first couple weeks, Nick Arbuckle gets another kick at the can. Arbuckle completed 70.5% of his passes for 2,400 yards in 12 games with the Redblacks last year but is inconsistent and throws way too many interceptions. Ottawa also doesn't have many playmakers around him while the offensive line is mediocre.
The Redblacks also have issues on defense. Lorenzo Mauldin IV led the league in sacks last year but was unable to lift a unit that allowed a league-worst 366.9 yards per game.
East All-Star Jovan Santos-Knox was signed to replace Williams at MLB, but like Masoli, will miss the first two weeks with an injury. Key defensive backs Money Hunter and Sherrod Baltimore have also been ruled out with injuries.
My best bet: Alouettes -2.5 (-110)
Redblacks vs Alouettes same-game parlay
Alouettes -2.5 (-115)
Stanback Under 62.5 rush yards (-110)
Under 44.5 (-115)
The Als were already a run-heavy team and they might lean on their ground game even more this year after saying goodbye to Harris and standout wide receivers Geno Lewis and Jake Weineke. That should mean a heavy dose of Stanback, who was routinely piling up 100-yard games when he was healthy in 2019 and 2021.
Greg Ellingson was signed to cushion the blow of losing Lewis, but he and Tyson Philpot have been ruled out for Week 1 while Reggie White Jr. is on the 6-game IL. Fajardo isn't an effective vertical passer and Montreal's lack of downfield targets will likely lead to a conservative gameplan, and fewer points.
The Redblacks offense will also likely struggle to move the chains with Arbuckle at the helm and no explosive weapons surrounding him.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Redblacks vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis
The Als lost in the East Final to the eventual Grey Cup champion Argos last fall but they lost some key pieces on offense. Harris and Weineke are now in Saskatchewan while 2022 East Division MOP Geno Lewis signed with Edmonton.
Fajardo is coming off a couple of rough seasons in Saskatchewan, and while he can't push the ball downfield, he's a tough veteran who will pick up yards on the ground.
Ottawa has gone just 10-40 straight up over the last three years but did a much better job of playing teams close last season.
The Als went 11-8-1 against the spread in 2022 but they lost outright as favorites in both home games against the Redblacks. In fact, the Redblacks exceeded expectations on the road where they went 7-2 ATS.
The total for Saturday opened at 45.5 before ticking down to 44.5 after the news broke that Masoli would be in street clothes.
I wouldn't downgrade Ottawa's offense too much due to Arbuckle, after all, he completed 76.8% of his passes for 813 yards in three games against the Als last year. But there's only so much he can do when handcuffed by this offense.
Redblacks vs Alouettes trend to know
Redblacks are 4-1 ATS in last five meetings. Find more CFL betting trends for Redblacks vs. Alouettes.
Redblacks vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Saturday, June 10, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Redblacks vs Alouettes key injuries
Redblacks: Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), Jovan Santos-Knox LB (Out), Shaq Evans WR (Out), Tevaun Smith WR (Out), Money Hunter WR (Out), Sherrod Baltimore DB (Out), Ante Litre RB (Out), Dontae Bull OT (Out).
Alouettes: Reggie White Jr. WR (Out), Sean Jamison C (Out), David Brown OL (Out), Raheem Wilson DB (Out), Greg Ellingson WR (Out), Tyson Philpot WR (Out), Brock Gowenlock DL (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
