The Calgary Stampeders host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in Week 11 of CFL action on Friday night.
The Bombers are once again Grey Cup contenders but the usually competitive Stamps have struggled and need to turn things around if they want to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time since 2004.
CFL betting lines opened with the Bombers as 7-point road favorites. However, with Dru Brown getting the start at quarterback over injured superstar Zach Collaros, that line has ticked down to -4. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Blue Bombers vs. Stampeders on August 18.
Blue Bombers vs Stampeders best odds
Blue Bombers vs Stampeders picks and predictions
The Calgary Stampeders pulled off their biggest win of the year in Week 9 by upsetting the previously unbeaten Argos but they came crashing back to earth last Saturday, getting hammered 37-9 by the Lions. They are now just 2-5 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games which includes a 24-11 defeat in Winnipeg last month.
Calgary quarterback Jake Maier was held to just 122 passing yards in that loss and he has been held below 170 passing yards in four of nine games this year. Maier has the second-lowest pass efficiency rating (78.7) among all qualifying QBs and he has thrown a league-high 11 interceptions.
That's bad news against a Winnipeg Blue Bombers stop unit that has an opponent pass efficiency rating of just 77.9 and ranks second in the CFL with 26 takeaways. On the other side of the ball, the Stamps are second in the league in yards allowed per play (5.83) but poor field position due to turnovers and terrible play on specials teams has resulted in Calgary ranking sixth in scoring defense (26.2 ppg).
The Bombers will have backup Dru Brown at QB this week (with Collaros dressing as an emergency third-string) but that's factored into this spread and he has looked more than capable when called upon.
Brown completed 66% of his passes for 452 yards (9.0 yards per attempt) and five touchdowns against just two interceptions last year. After replacing Collaros in the first quarter last week he torched the Elks for 307 yards and four scores through the air.
It also helps that he's surrounded by plenty of weapons like Brady Oliveira, Dalton Schoen, and Kenny Lawler, and protected by one of the league's top offensive lines. With Winnipeg having a far more efficient offense and boasting a much better turnover differential, give me the Bombers on the spread.
My best bet: Blue Bombers -4 (-110 at at DraftKings)
Blue Bombers vs Stampeders same-game parlay
Blue Bombers -4.5 (-110)
Brady Oliveira Over 79.5 rushing yards (-114)
Reggie Begelton Under 68.5 receiving yards
Bombers running back Brady Oliveira leads the league with 703 rushing yards and is coming off a 110-yard performance in Week 10. As sharp as Brown has looked when he takes over at QB, head coach Mike O'Shea would be wise to lean on Oliveira and the ground game. Especially against a Stamps defense that gets gashed for 105.9 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry.
Begelton has been Calgary's best wideout this year but he can only perform as well as the guy throwing him the ball. In every game where Maier was held below 200 passing yards, Begelton was limited to fewer than 55 receiving yards. That includes that Week 5 showdown against the Bombers and the last two games when he had just 30 yards versus Toronto and 33 against BC.
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Blue Bombers vs Stampeders spread and Over/Under analysis
The Bombers were 8-point home favorites when they faced the Stamps in Week 5 and they opened as 7-point road chalk this time around before slimming to -4 when Collaros was absent from practice.
Despite the absence of reigning two-time MOP winner Collaros and his league-high 2,298 passing yards, the O/U has seen minimal movement after opening at 47.5.
The Bombers failed to cover the spread as 13-point road chalk against Edmonton last week but Brown did lead them to a huge comeback win. That improved their overall record to 7-2 while their ATS mark dropped to 5-4. Meanwhile, the Stamps are 3-6 SU and ATS.
The Bombers are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings between these West Division foes.
Blue Bombers vs Stampeders trend to know
The Stampeders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against West division foes while the Blue Bombers are 26-11 ATS in their previous 37 contests against inter-divisional opponents. Find more CFL betting trends for Blue Bombers vs. Stampeders.
Blue Bombers vs Stampeders game info
| Location: | McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB |
| Date: | Friday, August 18, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Blue Bombers vs Stampeders key injuries
Blue Bombers: Zach Collaros QB (Questionable), Drew Wolitarsky WR (Questionable), Malik Clements OLB (Out), Celestin Haba DE (Out), Janarion Grant WR/KR (Out).
Stampeders: Jonathan Moxey DB (Questionable), Malik Henry WR (Out), Peyton Logan RB (Out), Jalen Philpot WR (Out), Hugh Thornton OT (Out), James Vaughters DE (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
