The USMNT looks to build off Saturday's exciting victory over Peru with another friendly win when they welcome Chile to Energizer Park on Tuesday night.
USA is heavily favored at 69% probability, but my USA vs. Chile predictions and free picks break down why the visitors won't go down without a fight.
Read on for our analysis ahead of kickoff at 8 p.m. ET on TNT.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
USA vs Chile predictions
My USA vs Chile top pick: Both Teams to Score Yes (51% probability)
The kids are quite alright, if Saturday is anything to go by.
Mauricio Pochettino handed debut starts to Cavan Sullivan, Justin Ellis, and Peyton Miller. Ellis scored just four minutes into proceedings, and his replacement Julian Hall—also earning his first cap—scored 10 minutes after entering the match.
As I predicted, the lack of experience and cohesion led to Peru getting a goal. I'm backing the same to happen here, as Pochettino likely debuts a few more newbies with just two days between matches.
Chile will find a goal, and I'm backing BTTS up to 55%.
My USA vs Chile Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (56% probability)
Just as I predicted for the match with Peru, I think the USMNT can clear this total by themselves.
Pochettino's style takes no prisoners, and he wants to press from the opening kick to the final whistle. Add in the hunger of so many young players looking to impress, and they'll be pushing for goals until the final whistle.
Chile was fortunate not to lose by more as Canada scored just one goal. The Canadians attempted 22 shots and hit the woodwork twice, missing three big chances.
The Americans scored four on Peru and will push this over the total as well, but I wouldn't go past 57%.
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USA vs Chile combo
Both Teams to Score Yes
USA to Win
Chile will be without two key players for this match. Starting RW Lucas Cepeda and LB Gabriel Suazo—their captain—were both sent off against Canada and are suspended for this match.
That's just another boost for a USMNT side that has gone 5W-1D-0L in their last six against CONMEBOL opponents. Chile may also have quite a bit of fatigue to deal with, given they were defending much of the second half vs. Canada with just nine men.
They'll push their record at Energizer Park to a perfect five wins from five outings behind another strong performance.
USA vs Chile odds
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch USA vs Chile
| Location | Energizer Park, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
| Weather | It'll be a perfect night, with temps in the low 70s and light winds. There's a minimal chance of rain in the forecast at just 3%. |
USA vs Chile key injuries
USA: None.
Chile: Lucas Cepeda RW (Out), Gabriel Suazo LB (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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