It's Labour Day weekend which means another edition of the QEW rivalry between the Toronto Argonauts and Hamilton Tiger-Cats. This is one of the most storied rivalries in the CFL and the Argos have dominated the series in recent years to a tune of 8-2 straight up and against the spread in the last 10 meetings.
With Toronto on top of the Grey Cup odds board, while boasting the league's best record, CFL odds expect this team to take care of business in this Week 13 clash — installing it as an 8-point road favorite. Here are my free Argonauts vs. Tiger-Cats CFL picks and predictions for Monday, September 4.
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats best odds
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats picks and predictions
The Toronto Argonauts have rolled to an 8-1 record thanks to a dominant offense, leading the CFL in scoring (34.1 points per game) and yards per play (7.65), while turning the ball over a league-low 13 times.
This is an attack with zero weaknesses. The offensive line has opened huge holes in the run game and has allowed a league-low 10 sacks (11 fewer than second-place Calgary). Running back AJ Ouellette is second in the CFL in rushing yards per game (70.1) and quarterback Chad Kelly spreads the ball to all his wideouts while leading the league in pass efficiency rating (118.7) and yards per pass attempt (11.3).
They are even thriving on special teams where Javon Leake leads the CFL with 16.1 yards per punt return and four touchdown returns.
The Argos team total for Monday is set at 30.5, a number they have eclipsed in every game this season except one. That one contest where they went below this number was in Week 9 against the Stampeders when Kelly exited the game early with an ankle injury. With Kelly back under center, Toronto dropped 44 points against the Redblacks in Week 10 and then came off a bye to pump the Stamps for 39 points in a revenge win last week.
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are coming off their best win of the year after upsetting the Lions 30-13 on the road last Saturday. However, they surrendered 326 yards against BC quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. and they were fortunate that the Leos were unable to capitalize on drives.
The Tabbies have struggled on defense all year and rank seventh in the league in ppg allowed (26.1) while ranking second last in yards allowed per pass attempt (9.8) and opponent pass efficiency rating (101.2). Don't overthink this bet and take the Over on Toronto's team total.
My best bet: Argonauts team total Over 30.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats same-game parlay
Argonauts TT Over 30.5
Chad Kelly Over 265.5 passing yards
Taylor Powell Over 235.5 passing yards
In his first year starting, Kelly has emerged as the MOP favorite. The former SEC star helped the Argos win the Grey Cup last season and has more than lived up to sky-high expectations. Excluding that Week 9 clash against the Stamps where he had just six pass attempts before leaving the game, Kelly has thrown for 300+ yards in four of his last five games. He should be able to light up a secondary that has been getting torched this season.
The Ticats are starting a third-string rookie QB in Taylor Powell but he is making strides, completing 77.6% of his passes for 440 yards over his last two games and throwing for 283 yards (albeit with just 6.9 yards per attempt) in his first career start against the Argos in Week 7.
Toronto has a solid defense, but while it doesn't give up many big plays (league-low 13 completions of 30+ yards allowed) it allows plenty of smaller chunk plays underneath.
In fact, the Argos rank dead last in the league in opponent completion percentage (71.7%) which feeds right into the short passing game that the Ticats have been using with Powell. When you also factor in that the Ticats could be throwing a lot if they fall behind early, the Over on Powell's passing yards seems like a strong play.
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Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats spread and Over/Under analysis
The Argos opened as 8.5-point favorites but that line has slimmed to -7.5 at most books. Meanwhile, the total has surged from 47.5 to 50.
The Boatmen began the year going 6-0 SU and ATS but have covered the spread just once in their last three contests. That said, all eight of their victories have come by at least eight points which would cover this current spread.
The Ticats began the year in ugly fashion going 0-3 SU and ATS until their bye in Week 4. They've been more competitive since and are 4-3 SU and ATS in their last seven.
These rivals have already clashed twice this season with Toronto winning by double digits on both occasions and the Under cashing.
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats game info
| Location: | Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON |
| Date: | Monday, September 4, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats key injuries
Argonauts: DaShaun Amos DB (Questionable), Henoc Muamba LB (Out), Jared Brinkman DT (Out).
Tiger-Cats: Joel Figueroa LT (Questionable), Casey Sayles DT (Questionable), Duke Williams WR (Questionable), Kyle Wilson LB (Questionable), Ja'Gared Davis DE (Out), Mohamed Diallo DT (Out), Tyrone Riley OT (Out), Bo Levi Mitchell QB (Out), Matthew Shiltz QB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
