Week 3 in the CFL wraps up on Sunday night with the Edmonton Elks hosting the Toronto Argonauts. The Elks are looking for their first win of the year while the Argos are aiming for back-to-back victories after beating the Ticats in their season opener last week.
CFL betting lines opened with the Argos as 6.5-point road favorites with the Over/Under at 44.5. Here are my best free Argonauts vs. Elks CFL picks and predictions for June 24.
Argonauts vs Elks best odds
Argonauts vs Elks picks and predictions
Edmonton's offense has been a complete disaster, putting up just 243 net yards and 13 points against the Roughriders in Week 1 before getting shut out by the Lions last week.
Quarterback Taylor Cornelius made progress over the 2022 season and he was expected to continue making strides after a full offseason to prepare as the team's No. 1 quarterback. Instead, Cornelius has regressed, completing 13 of 25 passes for 202 yards and a pair of picks against Saskatchewan before throwing for just 98 yards on 23 attempts versus the Leos.
While the Elks have surrounded Cornelius with more weapons, their offensive line is still brutal. That, combined with the deep vertical routes they tend to run, has resulted in Cornelius facing constant pressure. That line allowed Cornelius to get sacked five times in Week 1 and while he only got sacked once last week, the Lions generated pressure on 40% of their pass rush snaps per PFF.
The Argos stop unit looked terrific in their season opener last week, posting a pressure rate of 40.5% and holding the Tiger-Cats to 14 points. The defense anchored their Grey Cup run last year and should be even better this season after adding elite pass rusher Folarin Orimolade, playmaking SAM linebacker Adarius Pickett, and run-stuffing linebacker Jordan Williams.
I'm wary about backing the Boatmen on the spread, however, since their offense is pretty banged up and Edmonton looked solid on defense in Week 1. Toronto's top two receivers from last season Kurleigh Gittens Jr. and Markeith Ambles are sidelined as are a slew of offensive linemen with center Darius Ciraco a game-time decision.
So, instead of playing the spread, I'll back the Argos to hold the Elks below their team total. Keep in mind that some books have Edmonton's TT set at 17.5 (and juiced towards the Under at around -125) but this can still be grabbed at 19.5.
My best bet: Elks team total Under 19.5 (-110 at BetRegal)
Argonauts vs Elks same-game parlay
Elks team total Under 18.5
Kevin Brown Over 54.5 rushing yards
Taylor Cornelius Under 224.5 passing yards
Playing the Over on Brown's rushing yards in combination with the Under on their team total is a significant multiplier and it's worth taking when you consider how low this number is.
Brown had 41 yards on just seven carries last week and rushed for 59 yards on 11 carries in Week 1. The running back didn't join the team until last September but made an immediate impact with his new club, rushing for more than 90 yards in three contests. If the Elks want to keep this one close, they'll need to keep their offense balanced and give him touches.
Cornelius has completed just 55.3% of his passes for 305 yards in two games this year. Even that meager number is inflated by a 102-yard bomb to Geno Lewis in Edmonton's season opener.
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Argonauts vs Elks spread and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board on Monday with the Argos installed as 6.5-point faves and the Over/Under at 44.5. Both numbers have stayed steady and have seen very little movement. Interestingly, bet365 has a discrepancy of nine points between the team totals with Toronto at 26.5 and Edmonton at 17.5 (with the Under juiced to -125 for both teams).
The Argos have gone 10-2 straight up and 8-3-1 against the spread in their last 12 games, which includes last year's Grey Cup where they upset the Blue Bombers. Their defense anchored that Grey Cup run and there were questions about how their offense would perform this season with Chad Kelly at the helm.
The former star QB at Mississippi was sharp in a brief appearance during the Grey Cup and he looked good in the Argos season opener, completing 14 of 23 passes for 238 yards and adding three scores on the ground.
Edmonton was the worst team in the CFL last year but was expected to improve in Year 2 of the new Chris Jones regime. The former Grey Cup-winning head coach returned to the team last year but spent much of the season tinkering with lineups and lacked talent.
With continuity and an infusion of talent during the offseason, the Elks were supposed to be better but have gone 0-2 SU and ATS to begin the year. The Elks have gone 0-17 SU and 3-14 ATS at home since the start of the 2021 season.
Argonauts vs Elks trend to know
The Argonauts are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Elks.
Argonauts vs Elks game info
| Location: | Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Sunday, June 25, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Elks key injuries
Argonauts: Robert Priester DB (Out), Kurleigh Gittens Jr. (Doubtful), Darius Ciraco (Questionable), Shawn Oakman DT (Out), Henoc Muamba LB (Out), Markeith Ambles WR (Out), Darius Bladek OG (Out), Trevon Tate OT (Out), Shane Richards OT (Out), Maurice Carnell IV DB (Out).
Elks: Emmanuel Arceneaux WR (Out), Ed Gainey DB (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
