Week 15 in the CFL wraps up on Saturday night with a clash between the Montreal Alouettes and Calgary Stampeders.
Montreal has been the best team in the league and my Alouettes vs. Stampeders predictions expect them to bounce back from last week's rare loss. Here are my best free CFL picks for this September 14 clash.
Alouettes vs Stampeders prediction
My best bet
Alouettes -5.5 (-110 at CoolBet)
My analysis
The Montreal Alouettes are the defending Grey Cup champs and have been the most impressive team in the CFL this year. They have a 10-2 record and are second in the league in both scoring offense (27.7 points per game) and defense (22.4 ppg). They've performed at that high level despite dealing with a ton of injuries, including one that sidelined starting quarterback Cody Fajardo for five weeks.
Expect them to bounce back against a Calgary Stampeders franchise in turmoil. The Stamps are at the bottom of the West Division with a 4-8 record and are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2004.
Losers of their last four games, the Stamps' defense ranks last in the league in yards allowed per play (7.14) and sacks (18), while sitting sixth in opponent pass efficiency (98.8). They've also floundered on offense, where they are eighth in second-down conversion rate and have turned the ball over a league-high 31 times.
They benched QB Jake Maier after a four-interception performance in Week 13, but backup Logan Bonner threw five picks in last week's 37-16 loss to the Elks. Calgary will return to Maier for this weekend's matchup, but I don't trust him to play well against an Als' defense that has allowed the fewest deep passes in the league (6) and boasts the second-lowest opponent pass efficiency (88.0).
Maier also passed for just 106 yards when these teams met earlier this year, and his confidence could be shaken after the benching.
Alouettes vs Stampeders same-game parlay (SGP)
Alouettes -5.5
Cody Fajardo Under 305.5 passing yards
Dedrick Mills 50+ rushing yards
Although Fajardo leads the league in pass efficiency (108.3), his passing yards prop is a bit inflated here. Montreal is still dealing with key injuries at wide receiver, and the Stamps defend the pass better than the run, where they allow a league-worst 6.5 yards per carry. Expect the Als to run the ball more in this matchup especially if they get up early.
Meanwhile, the Als actually allow the second-most yards per rush (5.5) and Calgary will look to take advantage of that with stud running back Dedrick Mills.
Mills left the team in early August after the tragic death of his best friend, but he returned last week to rush for 65 yards on 14 carries. I'm not confident in Mills going Over 62.5 on his rushing yards prop if the Stamps have a negative game script, but he should still crack the 50-yard plateau.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Alouettes vs Stampeders odds
Alouettes vs Stampeders live odds
Alouettes vs Stampeders opening odds
- Spread: Montreal -5.5 | Calgary +5.5
- Moneyline: Montreal -225 | Calgary +185
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Alouettes vs Stampeders spread and Over/Under analysis
- After going 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS in the first six games of the year, Calgary is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six contests.
- The Als have the best Grey Cup odds at +170, with last week's loss snapping a five-game winning streak.
- The Als are third in the league in turnover margin (+9) while the Stamps rank last (-15), but Calgary won the TO battle 3-0 when these teams clashed in Week 4.
- The Alouettes trailed 26-12 until late in the third quarter of that contest before scoring 18 unanswered points to rally for the win.
Alouettes vs Stampeders trend
Montreal is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Stampeders.
Alouettes vs Stampeders game info
| Location: | McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-142024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Alouettes vs Stampeders key injuries
Alouettes: Marc-Antoine Dequoy S (Doubtful), Austin Mack WR (Out), Tyson Philpot WR (Out), Najee Murray DB (Out), Reggie Stubblefield DB (Out), Kristian Matte G (Out), David Cote K (Out).
Stampeders: Bryce Bell OL (Questionable), Bentlee Sanders DB (Questionable), Ishmael Hyman WR (Questionable), Zack Williams G (Out), Malik Henry WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Alouettes vs Stampeders weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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