The Netherlands and Morocco probably didn’t expect to cross paths this early, but two of the top seven teams in the FIFA rankings now meet tonight with a Round of 16 date against Canada waiting.
The Dutch are -163 favorites to advance in the World Cup odds, though my Netherlands vs. Morocco predictions expect them to need extra time to get there.
Read on for my free World Cup picks and full breakdown of today’s matchup.
Who will win Netherlands vs Morocco: Draw (+226)
The Netherlands know how to navigate the knockout stages of the World Cup. After all, their 2010 World Cup final defeat to Spain is the last time they’ve been trailing at the final whistle of regulation in the tournament — a span of 15 matches.
Morocco also haven’t lost an international fixture in more than 30 matches — if you don’t count their on-pitch defeat to Senegal at AFCON. They’ve shown their 2022 World Cup run wasn’t a fluke and could’ve taken three points off Brazil had they been more clinical.
Prior results don’t win football matches, but playstyles do. These two teams mirror each other in many respects, relying on ball pressure to limit opposing attacks and dictate the tempo.
Both nations rank in the Top 25th percentile for forced turnovers and have fullbacks who push forward in attack down both flanks. This will lead to long periods of midfield gridlock with neither side gaining a foothold.
I'm backing the Netherlands to advance at the end of the match, but they will need extra time to do so. The Dutch have crossed the ball the eighth-most of any nation in the tournament and will find a way through against a Moroccan side that has won just 46.3% of its defensive aerial battles.
Take the Draw down to +220.
TOp pick
Netherlands vs Morocco Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (-142)
The Dutch back line is littered with big names and elite talent, but it’s the midfield that deserves a lot of credit. Frenkie de Jong has been outstanding, averaging 5.29 recoveries and 2.44 interceptions per match.
Morocco’s pressure has seen them picking up contributions from touchline to touchline. LM Bilal El Khannouss is one of six Moroccan players averaging 5+ recoveries per match and had 6 against Brazil.
That dedication to defending for both nations is why I’m expecting a low-scoring affair, with a projected 1-1 tally after regulation.
The Atlas Lions rank eighth with a 53.7% ground duel win rate, as they’ve made it very tough to beat them in space. Meanwhile, the Oranje average less than 12 PPDA and rank sixth with 15.33 pressing sequences per match.
Given how I anticipate this match playing out, we will see something similar to Spain’s match with Uruguay, where the two sides close down passing and shooting lanes while battling centrally for the ball.
This is my top play of the match, playable to -150.
Netherlands vs Morocco goal scorer pick: Brian Brobbey (+220)
The introduction of Brian Brobbey over the last two matches changed the look and flow of this Dutch attack.
The physical striker has three goals in that span, and his 0.46 xG/shot is sixth-best among all players with at least 100 minutes played in the tournament according to Opta.
More importantly, it’s nearly three times as high as Cody Gakpo, with whom he’s tied for shortest odds to score, and is four times more than any other Dutch player.
Brobbey presents great value north of +150 odds.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Netherlands vs Morocco projected lineup
Netherlands (4-3-3): Verbruggen; Dumfries, van Hecke, van Dijk, Ake; Gravenberch, de Jong, Reijnders; Malen, Brobbey, Gakpo.
Morocco (4-2-3-1): Bounou; Hakimi, Halhal, Riad, Salah-Eddine; Amrabat, El Aynaoui; Diaz, Saibari, El Khannouss; El Kaabi.
Netherlands vs Morocco injuries
Netherlands: No key injuries to report.
Morocco: No key injuries to report.
Netherlands vs Morocco weather
Temperatures will be in the upper 70s at kickoff, with winds of 8-12 mph and a strong possibility of showers early in the match.
Netherlands vs Morocco odds
 Netherlands |
 Morocco |
|
|---|---|---|
| +113 | Moneyline | +285 |
| +233 | Draw | +233 |
| Over 2.5 (+127) | Total | Under 2.5 (-133) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Netherlands vs Morocco
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, México |
| Date | Monday, June 29, 2026 |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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