One of the better tactical matchups of Matchday 1 takes place this afternoon when the Netherlands square off with Japan in Group F play.
The Dutch are head and shoulders above their opponents, both literally and in the odds market. That’s why my Netherlands vs. Japan predictions are backing the Oranje to edge out their opponents.
Find out more in my World Cup picks for Sunday, June 14, with kickoff set for 4:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
TOP PICK
Who will win Netherlands vs Japan: Netherlands (-103)
Height — or a lack thereof — is what makes this such a difficult matchup for Japan. The shortest team on average in the 2026 World Cup, Japan’s roster averages a hair over 5-foot-10 in height.
The Dutch average a half-inch shy of 6-foot-2, and they use it to their advantage. Manager Ronald Koeman spoke this spring about using set pieces to their advantage, going as far as hiring a specialist to help improve their attacking set pieces.
Captain Virgil van Dijk stands 6-foot-4, as do fellow defender Micky van de Ven and forward Cody Gakpo. Let’s not forget the 6-foot-2 Denzel Dumfries and 6-foot-6 Wout Weghorst off the bench.
Japan has just two players on the roster who stand taller than 6-foot-1, and one is a forward who isn’t a regular starter. Making matters worse, their central midfield took a massive blow on Thursday with the abrupt retirement of captain Wataru Endo due to injury.
Finding goals is the biggest question mark coming into the World Cup bracket for the Oranje. It’s why they’re not listed higher in the World Cup odds to win the tournament.
But on Sunday, the Dutch have a clear path to victory through the air. That’s the difference in a matchup of two elite defenses and why I’m backing the Dutch to win up to -110 as my best play.
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TOp pick
Netherlands vs Japan Over/Under Pick: Under 2.5 (-105)
While I expect the Netherlands to get a win, I’m expecting a very low-scoring affair in a match featuring two excellent defenses and two below-average attacks.
Striker Memphis Depay is not in good form, and while Donyell Malen had a resurgent spring with Roma, Koeman is more likely to start him out wide in this match and utilize Weghorst’s height.
Japan will make it difficult to break them down. They’ve kept five consecutive clean sheets, a run including fixtures against England, Scotland, and Ghana. Their compact 3-4-2-1 setup looks to frustrate opponents.
But like the Dutch, Japan’s weakness is in attack. The loss of Kaoru Mitoma just before the tournament was a critical blow, robbing them of perhaps their best creative attacker. Now they’ll be tasked with breaking down one of the strongest and tallest back lines in world football.
The Netherlands conceded just four goals in eight World Cup qualifiers. Without Mitoma and Endo to bother them, the Dutch will keep another clean sheet with a better defense and midfield.
I’m backing the Under down to -120.
Netherlands vs Japan goal scorer pick
Virgil Van Dijk (+700)
There are lots of angles to attack from a goalscoring perspective, but there’s no way Virgil Van Dijk should have a price of +700 given how I expect the Dutch to attack this Japanese defense. The defender possesses elite aerial talent, as evidenced by his two-headed goals against Aston Villa last month.
He also headed home the equalizer against Norway in their 2-1 win in March. Van Dijk averaged 0.9 headed shots per match during UEFA World Cup qualification, which is a significant outlier. That only amplifies his value.
The height disparity and expected flow of the match lend themselves to a higher probability of Van Dijk getting multiple attempts to nod one home. If that happens, then the likelihood of him scoring dwarfs the 12.5% implied probability tied to his +700 odds.
Netherlands vs Japan projected lineup
Netherlands (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen; Dumfries, Hecke, Van Dijk, Van de Ven; De Jong, Gravenberch; Malen, Reijnders, Gakpo; Weghorst.
Japan (3-4-2-1): Suzuki; H. Ito, Watanabe, Taniguchi; Doan, Kamada, Tanaka, Nagatomo; Kubo, J. Ito; Ueda.
Netherlands vs Japan injuries
Netherlands: Memphis Depay (Questionable), Bart Verbruggen (Probable).
Japan: Wataru Endo (Out).
Netherlands vs Japan weather
The weather will not be a factor as this game will be played in a dome.
Netherlands vs Japan odds
 Netherlands |
 Japan |
|
|---|---|---|
| -103 | Moneyline | +285 |
| +270 | Draw | +270 |
| Over 2.5 (+100) | Total | Under 2.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Netherlands vs Japan
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Sunday, June 14, 2026 |
| Time | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TV |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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