England vs France Goal Scorer Picks: Mbappé Opens Scoring!

James Eastham – Betting Analyst at Covers.com
James Eastham • Betting Analyst 21+ years betting experience
Updated: Jul 17, 2026 , 04:53 PM ET • 4 min read

Kylian Mbappé keeps his Golden Boot chances alive with an opening goal!

Kylian Mbappé of France World Cup 2026
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Kylian Mbappé of France World Cup 2026

England and France will go all out to entertain fans in the match for third place in Miami on Saturday.

I have picked out three England vs. France goal scorer picks for you, all available on Kalshi, one of our leading prediction market apps.

Here are my England vs. France predictions and World Cup picks as two heavyweight nations face off for a podium place at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday, July 18.

England vs France goal scorer picks

Player Kalshi
Probability
American
Odds
France Kylian Mbappé 22% +355
England Declan Rice 7% +1330
France Desire Doué 26% +400

Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market's estimated probability of an event occurring.

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My England vs France goal scorer predictions

France  Kylian Mbappé 1st goal scorer

Kalshi probability: 22%


Kylian Mbappé is one of the first-choice players I expect to be in France's starting lineup. The reason is that he is chasing the Golden Boot and will be highly motivated to get on the scoresheet in what is largely a meaningless match.

Mbappé and Argentina’s Lionel Messi are tied with eight goals each. Messi is ahead of Mbappé in the Golden Boot race by virtue of having more assists (four vs. three). 

Mbappé therefore needs to score (or supply two assists) to move into top spot ahead of Messi’s World Cup final appearance on Sunday.

Mbappé has been the first goal scorer in five of France’s seven fixtures so far. On the basis of that stat alone, the chances of him hitting the net first here appear grossly underrated.

England  Declan Rice goal scorer

Kalshi probability: 7%


Declan Rice is one of the few England players listed in the goal scorer markets that stands a reasonable chance of starting the match.

Managers traditionally field squad players in the game for third place as a thank you for the supporting role they have played through the tournament.

England’s midfield options are limited, however. Jordan Henderson is ruled out by injury, meaning there are only three or four players competing for two or three positions. As a result, the chances of first-choice midfielders starting are bigger than would normally be the case.

Rice scored five times in 49 Premier League and Champions League appearances for Arsenal in 2025-26, and has found the net four times in 21 England games over the past two seasons. Both stats make him a value play.

France Desire Doué goal scorer

Kalshi probability: 20%

Desire Doué was unlucky to miss out on a place in France’s starting lineup for their semi-final against Spain. Manager Didier Deschamps may seek to appease the PSG winger by picking him from kick-off.

Doué has had a good tournament but found himself in competition with club-mate Bradley Barcola for the left-wing starting berth. As a result, the 2026 World Cup has been a stop-start affair for him.

Twenty-one-year-old Doué has scored three times in his last 10 France appearances. This season, he netted 12 goals for PSG in the French Ligue 1 and the Champions League at a rate of 1 goal every 186 minutes.

Those stats make clear that he stands a better chance of scoring than the market’s 20% probability rating suggests.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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James Eastham
Betting Analyst

James Eastham has worked as a soccer betting writer and tipster for more than two decades, providing content for leading publications such as The Guardian, Betfair, and ESPN.

Based in France and the UK, his specialist areas of knowledge are the major European soccer leagues (France's Ligue 1, Italy's Serie A, Spain's La Liga) and European club tournaments (Champions League, Europa League, Conference League). He also covers leading international competitions (World Cup, European Championship, Africa Cup of Nations) whenever they come around. He believes firmly in stake management, recording all bets, and a focus on long-term growth.

Alongside his betting content, he has worked as a features writer and interviewer for mainstream soccer print and online publications. For 10 years, he also worked as a talent scout, analyzing matches and players across Europe for professional soccer clubs.

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