With England and Ghana both on three points, Croatia and Panama know they need to get a win on Tuesday night when the two nations meet in Toronto.
Panama knows anything short of three points would likely end their hopes, with England on the horizon, but my Croatia vs. Panama predictions are backing the European side to take home a convincing victory.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Tuesday, June 23, with kickoff at 7 p.m. ET.
TOP PICK
Who will win Croatia vs Panama: Croatia -1.5 (+156)
Croatia wishes their match with England had ended at halftime. A late goal from Petar Musa leveled the match at 2-2, despite having just 0.37 xG from two shots on goal.
They allowed England to put just two of their nine shots on target, blocking four shots and defending with desperation after conceding an early penalty, but England dominated the second half, with all three of Croatia’s shots on target in the frame coming after the 75th minute.
Croatia won’t be dealing with the likes of Harry Kane this time around. They’re also going to put far more pressure on Panama than Ghana did.
Panama was able to enjoy space to build up, as Ghana pressured at the fifth-shallowest depth of any nation during Matchday 1. Ghana also operated in a mid or low block 53% of the time they spent out of possession. Despite that, Panama was unable to create any major chances without Adalberto Carrasquilla in midfield — and he’s expected to miss again.
Croatia won’t pressure heavily, but they will deny Panama those spaces in which to operate. They’ll also present a much more dangerous attack than what Ghana presented, driven by Luka Modric controlling the midfield.
While Croatia won’t beat Panama 6-2 as Brazil did, they’ll win by multiple goals, and I’ll back that to +140 as my top pick for this match.
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Croatia vs Panama Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (-104)
I’m expecting Croatian manager Zlatko Dalic to revert to a 4-2-3-1 formation after running a 3-4-2-1 to try to contain England’s dangerous attack.
That does multiple things that will enhance Croatia’s attack and push this total north of 2.5 goals. First, it frees up Ivan Perisic to focus more on creation, rather than having to track back as the wingback.
Secondly, it allows Josko Gvardiol to link up behind him. He’s a dangerous attacker when he roams up from left back, something he wasn’t able to do in the three-man defense vs. England.
The three-man midfield also allows Luca Modric the ability to get on the ball more often after managing just 33 touches vs. England. Finally, it allows the introduction of Andrej Kramaric into the starting XI, a player who managed 20 goal contributions in the Bundesliga this season.
If Croatia scored two goals against England, there’s no reason they can’t bag three against Panama. Croatia managed just 16 penalty-area touches vs. England, yet still managed to score twice.
Only Norway averaged a higher xG per shot than Ghana did on Matchday 1, which is an indictment on Panama, given Ghana had scored three goals in their previous seven matches.
Croatia will do much worse to a Panamanian defense that hasn’t kept a clean sheet in eight straight, as they carry the Over with or without Panama’s help. Play this to -110.
Croatia vs Panama projected lineup
Croatia (4-2-3-1): Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Vuskovic, Gvardiol; Pasalic, Kovacic, Modric; Kramaric, Musa, Perisic
Panama (3-4-3): Mosquera; Ramos, Cordoba, Andrade; Murillo, Harvey, Barcenaas, Blackman; Martinez, Waterman, Rodriguez
Croatia vs Panama injuries
Croatia: No key injuries to report.
Panama: Adalberto Carrasquilla CM (Doubtful).
Croatia vs Panama weather
It’s going to be a beautiful sunny evening, with temperatures at kickoff in the high-60s, winds of 12 mph, and no rain in the forecast.
Croatia vs Panama odds
 Croatia |
 Panama |
|
|---|---|---|
| -170 | Moneyline | +669 |
| +317 | Draw | +317 |
| Over 2.5 (-104) | Total | Under 2.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Croatia vs Panama
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | BMO Field, Toronto, Canada |
| Date | Tuesday, June 23, 2026 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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