As the Atlanta Dream try to keep their title hopes alive today against the Golden State Valkyries, the early start time may be an even bigger challenge for their West Coast foes.
Golden State has rallied impressively in these Finals with back-to-back wins, but Atlanta hasn't let go of the rope, and my Valkyries vs. Dream player props expect Rhyne Howard and Angel Reese to lead the charge for the hosts.
Read on for my free WNBA picks and betting tips ahead of this Thursday, Oct. 29, 12:30 pm ET tip-off.
For more analysis, Zak Hanshew is backing Atlanta -3.5 with his Valkyries vs. Dream predictions.
Best Valkyries vs Dream player prop bets for today
| Player | Pick | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Over 14.5 points | 55% | |
| Under 17.5 points | 53% | |
| Over 11.5 rebounds | 57% |
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Rhyne Howard Over 14.5 points
With the Golden State Valkyries clamping down on the Atlanta Dream offense, Rhyne Howard has found answers to keep her team afloat. The Dream have shot 31% over the last two contests, but that's no knock on Howard, who's gone past this O/U number in each of the last three while averaging 18.3 points per game.
Despite seeing plenty of Golden State's premier defensive stoppers like Gabby Williams and Veronica Burton, Howard's length continues to create enough space to launch jumpers, and her 3-point stroke looked sharper in Game 5, as she went 3-for-8 from downtown.
I'm also buying the extra aggression that's resulted in 21 free throws in the last three contests, and this prop is playable up to 15.5 at 57%.
Gabby Williams Under 17.5 points
The scoring burden has weighed heavier on Williams' shoulders with each game in these Finals, and she's fallen short of this O/U total in four straight outings against a physical, swarming Atlanta defense.
Even worse, Williams has missed her last 12 3-pointers, and she hasn't shot 40% or better from the field since Game 2 of the semifinals.
The Valkyries' offense will still feature a key dose of Williams jumpers, but I expect Natalie Nakase to lean on Burton and Tiffany Hayes to balance the Golden State attack. While Williams, who doesn't look 100% healthy, may yet win Finals MVP, I'd fade her scoring prop up to 55% today.
Angel Reese Over 11.5 rebounds
Look for the officials to give Angel Reese a little extra leeway following Karl Smesko's comments after Game 5, and that should spark another big effort on the glass.
Reese has nailed this Over in four of the five games in this series, including a 15-board tally on Monday night, and there's no reason for today's matchup to buck the trend of low-scoring rock fights.
Though Golden State has stifled Reese as a scorer, largely thanks to Kiah Stokes' work in the paint, her athleticism still provides a big edge on the boards against the Valkyries' veteran frontcourt. Plus, if Stokes winds up in foul trouble, the visitors are short of other answers. I'd bet this up to 12.5 at a more favorable price, too.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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