Best WNBA Player Props Today: Thomas Haunts Dream on the Boards

Mitchell vs. The Machine

The Indiana Fever aren’t the same team that sunk to the bottom of the WNBA standings last season. This year’s Fever are fighting every game, and already have two wins after amassing just five victories all of last season.

A big part of this competitive renaissance is the play of veteran guard Kelsey Mitchell, who has been through some hard times in her six seasons with the franchise. Mitchell is averaging 17.4 points and has scored 19 points or more in three of her last four games heading into Sunday’s home date with Phoenix.

Mitchell’s player props have her scoring mark parked at that clip, 17.5 Over/Under, but there’s good value in betting on her to go past that plateau. WNBA player models sit between 19.0 and 21.6 points, with my forecast for Mitchell’s scoring output at 20.2.

The Fever are playing just their third home game of the season after a heavy road slate to start 2023. Mitchell has posted efforts of 20 and 22 points, respectively, in Indiana’s only other two home stands. She finished the 2022 season with an average of 20 points on 45.5% shooting at home, compared to just 16.6 points on less than 42% success as a visitor.

The Mercury are playing their third straight road game in five days and had to deal with the distraction of Brittney Griner being ambushed by some YouTube nutjob in the airport in Dallas. On top of that, this team could be shorthanded with some backcourt key reserves listed as questionable.

Travel and off-court drama aside, Phoenix isn’t a very good team – most notably on defense. The Mercury sit 10th in advanced defensive rating and allow a league-high 87.2 points per game. They just allowed 37 points to Dallas’ high-scoring guard Arike Ogunbowale, and now face another dangerous guard in Mitchell.

Kelsey Mitchell prop: Over 17.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Rising Sun

The Connecticut Sun are rolling to start 2023 campaign and coming off a marquee win over the Las Vegas Aces last time out.

The Sun take that show on the road, visiting the Atlanta Dream on Sunday. This will be the Dreams’ third straight matchup with the WNBA elite after losing to New York and Las Vegas the past two games.

Atlanta has its hands full with a stacked Connecticut roster, which includes triple-double threat Alyssa Thomas. She’s averaging 13.8 points, 11.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists during the Sun’s 7-2 start, and Sunday’s WNBA player props predict another stat-stuffing day for the 6-foot-2 forward.

I’m focusing on Thomas’ work on the glass and betting the Over 9.5 rebounds (-130). Her player projections for Sunday have a ceiling of 12.4 boards, and she faces an Atlanta lineup that doesn’t hit the glass as hard as Connecticut’s recent foes.

The Sun have played Vegas (twice), Minnesota, and Dallas in the past four games, with those teams ranking No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4 in rebound rate behind Connecticut at No. 1. The Dream sit eighth in the 12-team league in that metric.

Thomas snatched totals of eight, 11, 10, and nine boards in that four-game stretch, and roughed up weaker rebounding clubs like Indiana and Washington for totals of 10, 11, 16, and 17 rebounds earlier this season.

Given the matchup and the positive projections, I’m paying the -130 for Thomas to collect at least 10 rebounds today. For those looking to squeeze a little more, Thomas’ milestone market of 13 or more boards is priced at +320.

Alyssa Thomas prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365)

Queen B 

The New York Liberty finally lived up to those lofty preseason expectations with an offensive eruption in a 106-83 win over Atlanta on Friday.

Oddsmakers are calling for another exciting outing, with the total for today’s matchup with Dallas as high as 171 points – the tallest total for the Liberty so far this season. Plenty of potential points has me looking to New York’s biggest star: Breanna Stewart.

Stewart scored 25 points in the blowout win over the Dream, and while her teammates have run hot-and-cold in the scoring department (looking at you Sabrina), Stewie is the steady scorer with an average of almost 24 points an outing.

Her points prop for this 1 p.m. ET tipoff is set at 23.5 Over/Under, a number that is a bit tempered by Stewart scoring just 20, 19, and 21 in recent run-ins with Chicago and Connecticut – two of the slower-paced teams in the WNBA.

However, she dropped 25 points on the up-tempo Storm in her return to Seattle late last month, and will welcome the pace of today’s opponent as well as thrive against a softer defense from Dallas.

The Wings, who will be playing their third game in five days, run the quickest pace in the league and also allow close to 84 points per contest. Dallas defense gets whistled for the third most fouls per game and sends opponents to the stripe an average of 20 times per game.

Stewart, who is a master of drawing contact and cashing in freebies (5.6 of 6.6 FTA), has player models calling for between 22.7 and 25.8 points for this home date, and my number is on the higher side as well at 25.2 points.

Game script, positive projections, and an advantageous matchup along with Stewie just being frickin’ amazing have me going Over on her scoring prop Sunday afternoon.

Breanna Stewart prop: Over 23.5 points (-110 at bet365)