Best WNBA Player Props Today: Hamby Falls Flat Against Wilson, Aces

Prop bet #1: Natasha Cloud Over 7.5 assists 

The Phoenix Mercury have a brand new offense this season, and while they’re still trying to work out the balance between the many scoring weapons they have up and down the roster, you can feel confident they’re going to figure it out largely because of who is at the head of the snake: Natasha Cloud.

Cloud is the WNBA’s second-leading assist-getter so far this season at a career-best 7.6 per contest, and she’s fit right in running the Mercury offense after spending her first eight years at the point for the Washington Mystics. She's one of the W’s best pick-and-roll guards. She’s great at keeping her dribble alive under ball pressure and often "Nashes" under the basket to create new angles and keep defenses guessing. 

The Mercury have multiple good cutters with Kahleah Copper and Sophie Cunningham as standouts, both capable as drivers but also elite shooters who have to be guarded everywhere. 

Cloud loves to get a foot by her defender and get them in jail, force the opposing big to commit at the rim, and then make the easy pass inside under the basket. Now that Brittney Griner is back, those plays become even more effective due to Griner's size, shooting, and finishing ability. 

Cloud has also developed an early chemistry with Dianna Taurasi. The two are fond of working the pick-and-pop game to get DT easy looks off screens. It’s a simple play and hard to guard, particularly against a Dallas Wings defense that has shown little resistance on the perimeter.

With Griner’s return making Cloud’s job in the pick and roll even easier, getting these Natasha Cloud odds at real plus money is great value.

Natasha Cloud prop: Over 7.5 assists (+120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Arike Ogunbowale Under 25.5 points

Sticking with Cloud, what makes her such a valuable player is that not only can she run an offense on one end, but she can gum up the works for the opposing team on the other. Cloud is one of the W’s elite perimeter defenders, with multiple All-Defense teams under her belt and always in the running for more.

She has a tenacity and physicality on the wing that the Mercury have sorely needed, and no doubt she’ll get significant minutes guarding Wings superstar Arike Ogunbowale on Sunday. Arike is a quick guard with a penchant for the long ball, but Cloud can slow her down significantly by denying her the ball and making her work before the catch.

The kind of pressure the Cloud routinely applies to opponents wears on them over the course of a game, until their effort lags in the fourth. Dallas continues to feel the absence of Satou Sabally, the team’s best playmaker, meaning that Ogunbowale is having to generate a lot more of the offense off the dribble. 

That's both more tiring and less efficient for just about every player, which should make Cloud’s efforts more keenly felt. Arike is well below her career average effective field goal percentage at just 42.1% this season, and her overall scoring has been sustained largely by foul drawing that a veteran guard like Cloud should avoid.

Some books are offering these Arike Ogunbowale odds as low as 23.5, and 25.5 is much too high given that she’s only scored 22+ points once in her last five games.

Arike Ogunbowale prop: Under 25.5 points (-110 at DraftKings).

Prop bet #3: Dearica Hamby Under 19.5 points

The Las Vegas Aces are under a bit of a microscope right now because they're just 5-3 to open their second straight title defense season. Given they only lost six times last year, it might seem a bit like the sky is falling.

Then you look at the way that A’ja Wilson is playing and the ground feels steady beneath your feet again. Wilson is already a two-time MVP and two-time Defensive Player of the Year, but this has been by far the best she's ever played in the regular season.

However, her defense this season is perhaps not receiving the attention it deserves. That’s probably because her offense has been so otherworldly and the Aces' overall defensive rating has not been at the level it’s reached in the past. The latter is all because opposing teams are taking and making an absurd number of 3-point shots, something that Wilson as their center has next to nothing to do with.

What she is responsible for, she’s locking down, and that’s the paint. The Las Vegas defense is still allowing the fewest points in the paint of any W team and that’s all because Wilson has been a menace inside. That’s why I think the Under on these Dearica Hamby odds is so favorable. While the former Aces player has dabbled in the occasional outside shot, she only scores at volume by going right at the rim. 

To do so, she’ll have to repeatedly beat the best player in the world who's playing at an all-time great level, and while Hamby has had an outstanding start this season, I’m betting on A’ja in that exchange every time.

Dearica Hamby prop: Under 19.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)