New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces Prop Bets: Selections From the Commissioner's Cup Final

Slick serving from Sabrina

The last time the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces played, New York guard Sabrina Ionescu went full “Human Torch” on the reigning WNBA champs and dropped 31 points in a 99-61 victory on August 6.

Las Vegas can ill afford Ionescu to get hot quickly and will pick up the pressure on her the second she steps over half. The Aces will have to get their heels above the 3-point arc and heavily hedge on all high screens after Ionescu buried them beneath six triples earlier this month.

Playing up in her shorts will turn Ionescu into a ball-handler and will attempt to take the ball out of her hand, turning the sharp-shooting guard into more of a facilitator. Her assists prop for the Commissioner's Cup Championship is at 5.5 dimes (Over -115) with some books starting to tick up the vig on the Over.

Ionescu is averaging 5.9 assists on the season and has topped that mark in each of the meetings with Vegas, dishing out seven in both their first game back in late June and New York’s win on August 6.

Sabrina took some time to find her way with all the new additions to the Liberty’s lineup this season, especially with veteran Courtney Vandersloot taking over point guard duties. She averaged only 4.7 assists over the first dozen games of 2023 but has handed out 6.7 helpers per game since the start of July.

Since that shift, New York’s offense has taken off. The Liberty own an offensive rating of 109.3 in those 16 games, posting more than 89 points an outing with a league-best assist-to-FG ratio of 77.9%. Given the tall total and offensive tempo for tonight, the game script calls for plenty of dime drops from New York. Ionescu will be in on at least six of them.

Sabrina Ionescu total assists: Over 5.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Whacky for Jackie

In that most recent meeting, Jackie Young had 13 points in the first 20 minutes before a historically good offense had a historically bad second half.

Young finished the game with 16 points on 6-for-9 shooting, which was her shortest output of August so far. She’s scored 17 points or more in the four other games this month and is shooting a collective 50.8% in the last five games overall.

Young’s scoring prop for tonight’s title game is as low as 16.5 points (Over -105) while other operators are either dealing the Over 16.5 as pricy as -130 or setting the total at 17.5 points with the Over as high as -115.

Player projections are all north of 16.5 points for Young, with a basement of 17 and a ceiling of 23 points. My number is flirting with 18 points from the veteran guard, presenting solid positive expected value if you can shop for the lower total and that -105 juice.

There are a lot of capable scorers on this Las Vegas roster, which makes getting the lower total on Young's output very important. If you've wagered on her recent scoring props, you've gone for some wild rides. I like Over 16.5 points but I get a little sweaty at 17.5 O/U.

Jackie Young total points: Over 16.5 (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Breanna bombs away

Not only do we get a showdown between the top two teams in the WNBA, but we also have a head-to-head battle between the MVP frontrunners: Breanna Stewart and A’Ja Wilson.

Stewart is coming off an incredible 42-point performance, albeit against the turnstile defense of the Indiana Fever. While I don’t see Stewie hanging that many on the Aces’ top-ranked defense tonight, her aggressiveness from beyond the arc offers value in the 3-point props.

Stewart has seen her attempts from deep erupt in recent showings. The former MVP forward was taking an average of just 4.7 shots from distance in her first 22 games of 2023, making just shy of two triples per outing.

The past eight games, however, have seen those long-range looks spike to eight an outing with Stewart cashing in 2.8 of those 3-point attempts. She hit 5 of 10 from deep against Indiana and was 4-for-9 from the perimeter in the win over Vegas on August 6.

Stewart’s 3-pointers made prop for the Commissioner's Cup Championship is set at 2.5 (Over +100) — a mark she’s surpassed in five of her last eight games.

Player projections are high for Stewart tonight, with her early point forecasts ranging from 24.7 to 26.2 points. Her versatility allows her to play the perimeter and draw the Aces’ bigger defenders away from the basket, and meeting those lofty expectations will take at least three triples from the MVP favorite.

Breanna Stewart total 3-pointers made: Over 2.5 (+100 at bet365)