New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Lack of Parker Keeps Liberty Alive

Tuesday, August 15 is the third annual WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Final between the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces. The Aces are not only hoping to defend their cup title against their super team competitors but to avenge one of the worst losses in franchise history suffered against New York last Sunday. 

The Liberty, for their part, will look to keep building momentum and confidence against what has been the best team in the league this season. This will be the third meeting between Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson’s squads of the year, and as the postseason lurks ever closer into view, WNBA odds continue to favor this matchup in the Finals in the fall.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Aces for the Commissioner’s Cup believe Candace Parker’s absence paired with Jonquel Jones’ return to form will make for a close-run game on Tuesday. After perusing our best bet, don't forget to check out Jason Logan's favorite Liberty vs. Aces prop picks.

Liberty vs Aces best odds

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Liberty vs Aces picks and predictions

The WNBA season may not be as long as the NBA’s, but it’s still plenty long enough to see teams rise and fall due to injuries or transform into new, better versions of themselves as ever-elusive chemistry begins to take hold. Both factors will be front and center in the latest matchup between the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces for today’s WNBA Commissioner's Cup game.

A few weeks ago, I could not have imagined picking the Liberty would cover the spread in this game, but a critical injury to the Aces and New York’s recent dominance has me doing just that.

Twin blowouts marked the prior to two games these titans have played so far, with the Aces striking first on June 29 with a lead that eventually ballooned to 27 points, while the Liberty, in turn, rode a 50-17 second half in their trouncing of Las Vegas on August 6. It’s not that Vegas lost and lost badly in their most recent tilt that informs the analysis here, but rather the structural reasons why the two games looked completely different. 

In short, the reasons are Candace Parker and Jonquel Jones.

The Aces' small-ball lineups were why they ultimately won the WNBA Finals last year, but it was their ability to play Parker and A’ja Wilson together that allowed them to match up so well against Jones and Breanna Stewart back in late June. With Parker out of the picture, Las Vegas is suddenly very small on the interior. 

The Aces will need better responses to the pressure the Liberty frontcourt can put on them in the paint, as well as better answers to the rebounding battle where they got doubled up (48-24) by New York. Jones has fully rounded into form since her offseason was disrupted by a foot fracture (ironically, the same injury that now has Parker out for the foreseeable future) and her ability to disrupt at the rim, shoot threes, and post up is a nightmare for the Aces to defend.

But it's not just the defense that is hurt by Parker's absence, it’s perhaps even more costly to their offense. Kiah Stokes is an outstanding defender, but she has significantly less impact on the other side of the ball. Even when Stokes got open, Kelsey Plum and the other Aces guards were looking her off, or hesitating long enough for help to come from the corner into the paint. That allowed New York to liberally pressure the ball, and for Jonquel to hang out much closer to the basket, making things tough on every Las Vegas drive.

I’m not expecting the same poor performance from Wilson just because of Jonquel’s rim protection, but her impact on the Aces guards saw them start to lose confidence for the first time this season. Until I see this Parker-less Aces attack put together multiple solid quarters of offense against a Jones and Stewie-led defense, I’m inclined to think Tuesday’s game will be a nail-biter.

My best bet: Liberty +7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Liberty vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

Aces opened at -6.5, which has risen to -7.5 at a few sportsbooks. Las Vegas has been remarkably consistent all year (discounting, of course, their most recent game against the Liberty) while New York has been more prone to fluctuation. But health figures to be a major factor in Tuesday’s game, with the Aces suddenly looking quite thin and the Liberty closer to full strength than at any previous point this year.

The Liberty have hit their stride of late, posting their best stretch of the season against the spread, having now won four straight ATS for the first time this year. The Aces still have a better overall ATS record, but New York has been playing better ball of late.

It’s easy to forget that before the halftime rout, the game these teams played on August 6 was nip-and-tuck through the first 20 minutes. Barring an injury like the one that befell A’ja in that game, I believe this game is destined to be tight, and favoring a Liberty cover.

Totals for Tuesday’s Cup Final have been all over the board. It was available as low as 172.5, but that swiftly rose across the board and is now as high as 177.5 at some books. If the total is where you aim to put your money, price hunting is a must with such stark differences in what books are offering.

177.5 is a gargantuan line and these teams have the offensive firepower to back it up. The Aces have faced a lot of similarly high lines recently and the Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. 

But the more teams play one another in a concentrated amount of time, the more they can lock in the defensive coverages they hope to execute. The Liberty switching with force made all the difference in the second game, while the Aces mixing up their pick-and-roll coverages frustrated New York in the first. With Stokes playing a larger role and Jones back to full strength, I can just as easily see this game being decided by defense and leaning Under.

Liberty vs Aces betting trend to know

Liberty are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Aces.

Liberty vs Aces game info

Liberty vs Aces key injuries

Liberty: Han Xu C (Questionable).
Aces: Alysha Clark F (Probable), Riquna Williams G (Out), Candace Parker F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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