With defense largely ruling the day so far in this series, the New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun will look to find their shooting stroke as they head into a crucial Game 3 tonight.
The Liberty got the win they needed on Tuesday, leveling the series at 1-1 with an 84-77 victory. Sabrina Ionescu led the way with 21 points and New York got double-digit scoring from all five starters.
For a second straight game, the Sun kept Breanna Stewart in check, but their own offense stalled outside of Tiffany Hayes’ 30-point performance. Still, Connecticut left the Big Apple with a split as the Sun now return to the home confines of Mohegan Sun Arena.
Get a closer look at tonight’s Game 3 battle with our free WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Sun on September 29.
Liberty vs Sun Game 3 best odds
Liberty vs Sun Game 3 picks and predictions
Coming into this semi-final series, there was a sense that New York's size would overwhelm a smaller Sun line-up — and while Connecticut has held its own on the boards (67-66 to New York), Alyssa Thomas has had a tough time as a scorer while navigating the presence of Stewart and Jonquel Jones in the paint.
Thomas is 6-for-24 from the field over the first two games for a total of 18 points, after only averaging 11.5 points against the Liberty during the regular season. That’s not going to cut it for the Sun in this matchup.
But that hasn’t stopped the MVP runner-up from impacting this series as a playmaker — and I expect that trend to continue tonight. Thomas has played all 80 minutes in this series, piling up 19 assists and getting Rebecca Allen and Tyasha Harris good looks from the perimeter.
Though Connecticut came unstuck against New York's zone defense on Tuesday, I see the hosts sticking with the same offensive gameplan here, putting the ball in Thomas’ hands early and often and trusting her to make the right play.
Thomas has tallied nine or more dimes in four of her last five contests, including both games in this series, and I like the Over on this assists prop tonight.
My best bet: Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 assists (+106 at FanDuel)
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Liberty vs Sun Game 3 spread and Over/Under analysis
With a 17-3 road record this season, the Liberty are unlikely to be fazed by losing homecourt advantage as they head to Uncasville. Despite falling short of its explosive regular season numbers, the visitors’ offensive ceiling is so high that they’re still 4-point favorites on the road here.
That leaves Connecticut — 14-8 at Mohegan Sun Arena this year, including the playoffs — in the unusual position of being a home underdog. The hosts’ moneyline sits around +150.
Tonight’s spread is all the more interesting when you consider that the Sun have been on an ATS roll, covering in four of their last five games and posting a 10-2-1 ATS mark in their last 13 matchups against Eastern Conference opponents. In contrast, the Liberty are 0-4 ATS in their past four games following a win.
Based on what we’ve seen in the first two games of this series, I’m setting aside the Liberty’s regular-season domination (4-0) against the Sun. Connecticut has pushed New York to the limit in this postseason battle without even getting big scoring nights from Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.
Game 2 just about cashed in the Over after a rock fight in the series opener, but it’s tough to feel great about a total north of 160 when Stewart and Thomas are both struggling to find easy buckets.
Though the Over has hit in the Liberty’s last five outings after an ATS loss and is 5-1 in their past six contests, the Under has plenty of appeal too and has been a winning ticket in four of the Sun’s last five Friday games.
If you’re picking the Over, it’s likely with the expectation that the 3-point shooting will be closer to the Game 2 numbers (19-for-49) than the Game 1 misfires (16-for-51).
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Liberty vs Sun betting trend to know
The Sun are 5-0 ATS in their last five contests when they’ve covered the spread in their previous game. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sun.
Liberty vs Sun Game 3 game info
|Mohegan Sun Arena, Wilkes-Barre Township, CT
|Friday, September 29, 2023
|7:30 p.m. ET
Liberty vs Sun Game 3 key injuries
Liberty: Stefanie Dolson C (Out).
Sun: Brionna Jones PF (Out), Bernadett Hatar C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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