The Phoenix Mercury host the Las Vegas Aces on the final night of the WNBA regular season. The Aces will be playing for a chance at the No. 2 seed, and the Mercury will be playing for pride.
Even for a talented Aces team, laying 9.5 points on the road is simply too much, and my WNBA picks & Aces vs. Mercury predictions call for the home team to cover the spread as a big underdog.
Read on to see why I’m backing Kahleah Copper’s offense to help Phoenix keep things close in front of the faithful at Mortgage Matchup Center.
TOP PICK
Aces vs Mercury prediction: Mercury +9.5
The Las Vegas Aces have won six straight with a 4-2 ATS record. On the surface, the six-game heater is a reason to pick the Aces, but digging just a little deeper actually makes me lean Phoenix Mercury.
The Aces’ last six games have come against the Connecticut Sun, Los Angeles Sparks, Seattle Storm (twice) and Toronto Tempo (twice). Those four teams have the four worst records in the W, which makes Vegas’ recent win streak a bit of fool’s gold.
Motivation can’t be quantified, but Phoenix will certainly have the edge in that department. They covered in two straight games against the Dallas Wings, winning their last one to throw a wrench into Dallas’ playoff positioning. Phoenix has now won and covered in three of its last four.
The Mercury would surely love to play spoiler against the team that defeated them in last year’s Finals.
I’ll back them down to 7.5.
COVERS INTEL: Vegas has little to play for and Becky Hammon is signaling rest for A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray. Fade the Aces in a low-stakes spot and jump on Phoenix with the heavy home points.
Aces vs Mercury combo
Phoenix’s defense is below-average, so the Mercury will need to rely on offense to best the Aces. Fortunately for Phoenix, it sports the fifth-ranked Offensive Rating across the last four games at 112.7.
Led by Kahleah Copper and her surging scoring, the Mercury can make this one interesting by getting buckets at home against an Aces team that ranks second in Offensive Rating on the season (112.7). Play to 177.5.
Copper has averaged 28.4 ppg across her last five, scoring 19+ in each of them and 20+ three times. She leads the Mercury in scoring with a career-best 21.6 ppg, and she’s scored 20+ in 20 of 39 appearances.
She’s averaged 24.9 at home and 18 on the road, reaching the 20-point threshold in 13 of 20 at Mortgage Matchup Center. I’ll play this one up to 24.5.
Aces vs Mercury combo
- Mercury +9.5
- Over 174.5
- Kahleah Copper Over 19.5 points
Want more basketball combos? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
Aces vs Mercury player prop: Kahleah Copper Over 1.5 Three-Pointers
Copper is a far more prolific scorer at home, and that includes her long-range shooting. At Mortgage Matchup Center, she’s knocked down 1.9 triples on 32.8% shooting compared to 1.5 triples on 26.7% shooting across all other venues.
Copper has drilled multiple treys in 12 of 20 games at home, and she’s done so in seven of her last 12 games overall. Las Vegas has allowed the fourth-highest 3P% to opponents at 35%, giving Copper a favorable matchup to end the season on a high note at home.
- Top picks: 37-39, -6.78 units
- Combos: 8-68, -25.5 units
Aces vs Mercury odds
- Spread: Aces -9.5 | Mercury +9.5
- Moneyline: Aces 81% | Mercury 20%
- Over/Under: Over 174.5 | Under 174.5
Aces vs Mercury trend
Phoenix is 3-1 across its last four games. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Aces vs Mercury
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
Aces vs Mercury latest injuries
Aces: Dana Evans (Out), Nalyssa Smith (Out).
Mercury: Kelsey Plum (Out), Jovana Nogic (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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