Mystics vs Fever Predictions, Picks, & Odds for Today's WNBA Game

Caitlin Clark is finding a groove and the Fever are playing some good basketball of late. The Mystics are among the worst teams in the WNBA and this spread is too low in favor of Indiana.

Ed Scimia - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Ed Scimia • Betting Analyst
Jul 10, 2024 • 09:09 ET • 4 min read
Caitlin Clark Indiana Fever WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Indiana Fever will look to continue a five-game home winning streak on Wednesday afternoon as they host the Washington Mystics at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. 

Indiana has clawed its way back into playoff position with recent strong play and is the favorite in the WNBA odds — and our Mystics vs. Fever predictions — today against the Mystics, who are in a three-way tie for the worst record in the league.

In addition to liking the Fever to continue their strong play, my WNBA picks include a Caitlin Clark prop bet for Wednesday, July 10. 

Mystics vs Fever predictions

My best bet
Fever -5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

Based on raw numbers, you might initially think the Washington Mystics and Indiana Fever are evenly matched, perhaps even thinking Washington has a slight edge in terms of pure ability. After all, while Washington has the worse record, it has the better point differential, and its play has been relatively strong as of late after a 12-game losing streak to open the season.

But that would ignore two key factors in this game. First, Indiana has been a much better team at home and has won its last five at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. That includes an 83-78 win over the New York Liberty on July 6 and a previous 88-81 win over the Mystics on June 19.

The Fever have one major weakness: a terrible defense that hasn’t improved much even as the team’s record has. Indiana still has the second-worst defensive rating in the league at 108.4, allowing teams to shoot 44.7% from the field. However, the Mystics are one of the teams least equipped to take advantage of that,  as they have the second-lowest offensive rating in the league (97.2) and average just 78.6 points per game.

Washington can play some interior defense, but with most of Indiana’s offense coming from the perimeter via Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell, the Mystics have had trouble dealing with the Fever this season. That trend will continue today, as Indiana should comfortably pick up a sixth straight home win.

Caitlin Clark odds, prop for tonight

My best bet
Caitlin Clark Over 8.5 assists (+110 at DraftKings)

My analysis

Clark has been playing more consistently for the Fever as of late, and perhaps the most predictable number on her stat line has been her assist total. She’s Indiana's primary ballhandler and distributor, and while that has led her to put up a league-leading amount of turnovers as she works her way through her rookie season, she also puts up big assists totals on a nightly basis.

Over her last five games, Clark has made it into double digits in assists four times, including her triple-double performance against the Liberty on Saturday. Coming into a game against a relatively weak team in a game that should see plenty of points, it’s a relatively safe bet that Clark will get above her assists prop total again.  

Mystics vs Fever same-game parlay (SGP)

Fever -5.5

Over 168.5

Caitlin Clark Over 7.5 assists

The Fever deserve to be favored at home this afternoon, and I’ll pick them again to cover in my same-game parlay. I’ll also pair that with a slightly softer version of the same Clark prop bet that I picked as my best bet above.

To go along with those two legs, I’m also taking the Over. Both teams have played hard to the Over this year, and have gone past the total in each of their first two meetings.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mystics vs Fever odds

Mystics vs Fever live odds

Get the latest Mystics vs Fever WNBA odds for tonight.

Mystics vs Fever opening odds

  • Spread: Washington +5.5 (-110) | Indiana -5.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Washington +185 | Indiana -225
  • Over/Under: Over 167.5 (-110) | Under 167.5 (-110)

Mystics vs Fever spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The Mystics are 10-6-1 against the spread on the season, while the Fever have gone 10-8 ATS.
  • Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games, winning outright in six of those contests.
  • The Over has gone 14-4 in Fever games and 10-7 when the Mystics play.
  • Fever games average 167.8 points per game while Mystics contests are at 161.6.

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Mystics vs Fever trend

The Fever are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Fever.

Mystics vs Fever game info

Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Date: Wednesday, 7-10-2024
Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: Monumental SN, WTHR

Mystics vs Fever latest injuries

Mystics: Karlie Samuelson G (Out), Brittney Sykes G (Out), Shakira Austin C (Out).
Fever: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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